20180108-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_249kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of global economic and financial market conditions as of January 8, 2018, with a focus on economic data, currency movements, stock indices, and key market events. It highlights the expectations and outcomes of various economic indicators, central bank outlooks, and market reactions across different regions.

Main Economic Data and Outcomes

Markets Overview

Germany: Manufacturing orders are expected to grow at a slow and steady pace in November at 6.9% y/y.
Eurozone: December consumer confidence is anticipated to rise slightly to 0.5%, marking the first positive print since January 2001.
Asia: A light data release day with:
- Taiwan reporting December exports at 9.4% y/y (down from 14.0% y/y) and imports at 9.1% y/y (up from 9.0% y/y).
- Singapore and Indonesia releasing December foreign reserves data.
Philippines: Reports November exports and trade data on January 9.
South Korea: Unemployment numbers for December are expected at 3.6%.
China: Key data releases on January 10 include December PPI and CPI, with expectations at 4.8% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively. Additional data on money supply, new yuan loans, and aggregate financing are due from January 10 to 15.
Malaysia: Reports November industrial production at 4.9% y/y.
Singapore: Reports November retail sales figures on January 12.
Thailand: Releases foreign reserves data on January 12.
India: Reports December CPI data on January 12.

Central Bank Outlook

Fed officials (Williams and Rosengren) are set to discuss whether the Fed should maintain its 2% inflation target or reconsider it.
Cleveland Fed President Mester is hawkish, suggesting 4 rate hikes for the year.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker anticipates 2 hikes.
San Francisco Fed President Williams suggests 3 hikes are appropriate.

FX Market Summary

USD traded mixed, with the DXY finding support at 91.80.
CAD outperformed against the USD, with the USD/CAD pair down by 0.6% to 1.2412.
EUR underperformed, moving to 1.2029 from 1.2068, capped by a weekly high of 1.2089.
GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3571.
USD/JPY reached a 1-week high of 113.31, then corrected to 113.05.
SGD gained 0.2% to 1.3264 against the USD.
TWD rose to 29.523 against the USD.
KRW and PHP each fell 0.1%.
UOB RMB fixing model predicts the PBoC will set the midpoint at 6.4910/USD, 5 bps weaker than the previous fixing of 6.4915/USD.

Key Market Indices

US Stocks: All three major US benchmarks rose sharply during the first week of 2018, with the Dow up 2.3%, S&P 500 up 2.6%, and Nasdaq up 3.4%.
Asian Stocks: Gained momentum, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.89%, Hang Seng up 0.25%, Shanghai Composite up 0.18%, TAIEX up 0.29%, and KOSPI up 1.26%. The FTSE Straits Times Index in Singapore fell 0.33%, while other indices in Southeast Asia posted gains.
SGD NEER is expected to trade between 1.3184 and 1.3722, with a mid-point at 1.3448.

Economic News & Data Highlights

US Nonfarm Payrolls for December were +148,000, below estimates of +190,000. Revised November data was +252,000.
US Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1%.
US Inflation (CPI) for December was expected to rise 0.4% m/m, while core inflation was 0.1% m/m.
China's Foreign Reserves increased to US$3.14 trillion in December, up 20.7 billion from the previous month, marking an 11th consecutive increase.
Taiwan's CPI rose to 1.21% y/y, up from 0.34% y/y, and Core CPI increased to 1.57% y/y.
India's FY 2018 GDP forecast was revised down to 6.5% from 7.1%.

Commodities

Oil prices saw a 0.92% increase, closing at $61.44 per barrel.
Spot gold finished 0.3% lower at $1,319.59 per ounce.
CRB Index fell 0.98% to 193.45.

Bond Yields

US 2-Year Bond closed at 1.96%, up 0.8%.
US 10-Year Bond closed at 2.48%, up 2.4%.
Japan 10-Year JGB closed at 0.06%, up 0.6%.
Eurozone 10-Year Bund closed at 0.44%, up 0.5%.
UK 10-Year Long Gilt closed at 1.24%, up 1.0%.

Market Holidays/Events

Japan: Coming-of-age Day on January 8.
US: Martin L. King Day on January 15.
New Zealand: Wellington Anniversary on January 22, Auckland Anniversary on January 29, and Waitangi Day on February 6.
Australia: Australia Day Holiday on January 26.
India: Republic Day on January 26, Mahashivratri on February 14.
Malaysia: Thaipusam Day on January 31, and Federal Terriotry on February 1.
Singapore: Lunar New Year holiday from February 15-17.
Taiwan: Lunar New Year holiday from February 15-20.
China: Lunar New Year holiday from February 15-21.

Summary of Key Views

Economic Growth: Positive trends in Asian markets, with China, Malaysia, and other countries showing growth in exports, manufacturing, and CPI.
Central Bank Policy: Fed officials are divided on the number of rate hikes, with some advocating for 3-4 hikes and others for 2.
Currency Movements: The USD was mixed against major currencies, with CAD and SGD gaining, while EUR and JPY underperformed.
Stock Market Sentiment: Asian equities were on a strong upward trend, supported by positive economic data and earnings season.
Commodities: Oil prices saw a slight increase, while gold prices fell but remained in a bullish trend for the week.

Key Predictions and Expectations

SGD NEER is expected to trade between 1.3184 and 1.3722.
US CPI is forecast to rise slightly, with the PBoC setting the RMB midpoint at 6.4910/USD.
China's PPI and CPI are expected to be 4.8% and 1.9% y/y, respectively, with additional data to follow.
Philippines CPI remains stable at 3.3% y/y.
US Treasury Yields reversed losses and closed higher, with the 10-Year Bond at 2.48%.