20171128-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_246kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (28 November 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of global economic and market conditions, focusing on key economic indicators, central bank outlook, foreign exchange (FX) rates, equities, US Treasuries, commodities, and market holidays/events. It also includes UOB's estimation of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Net Exchange Rate (NEER) and interest rates.

Main Highlights

Economic Docket:
- The European economic docket features French and German consumer confidence readings for November.
- In the US, the Conference Board's November consumer survey, Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey, and advance trade and inventory reports for October are scheduled.
- The National Retail Federation will release its holiday weekend shopping totals.
- Concerns over China's deleveraging and potential North Korea missile launch are expected to cause market volatility in Asia.
- The yen is near a 2-month high, and gold is close to $1,300 per ounce due to safe-haven demand.
Central Bank Outlook:
- US Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan expressed hawkish views on the economy, citing financial imbalances and the potential for the unemployment rate to be above its natural level.
- The ECB will release October money and credit aggregates, while the Bank of England (BoE) will publish its Financial Stability Report and results of the annual bank stress test.
- The Bank of Canada (BoC) and RBNZ will also release their financial stability reports.
- US Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Powell's Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing is the main focus in the US.

FX Rates

Euro (EUR):
- The euro climbed to a two-month high against the dollar but retreated later in the day.
- EUR/USD closed at 1.1939, with an Asian high of 1.1957 and a NY high of 1.1961.
GBP/USD:
- GBP traded sideways against EUR, with mixed Brexit news.
- GBP/USD closed at 1.3324, with an Asian high of 1.3348 and a NY high of 1.3348.
SGD/USD:
- SGD was unable to sustain gains to a 2-month high of 1.3435 and finished little changed at 1.3459 per dollar.
- UOB's estimation of SGD NEER is between 1.3342 (upper-end) and 1.3887 (lower-end), with a mid-point of 1.3609.
Other Currencies:
- KRW: Mixed tone, with profit-taking at 1,085.30 per dollar.
- PHP: Gained 0.4% to 50.52 per dollar, the strongest closing levels since early August.
- MYR and THB held steady against USD at 4.1140 and 32.65 respectively.

Equities

Major US Indices:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10% to 23,580.78, hitting an intraday record of 23,638.92.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.04% to 2,601.42.
- The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.15% to 6,878.52.
Other Indices:
- Tokyo Nikkei 225: Closed at 22,495.99, down 0.24%.
- London FTSE 100: Closed at 7,383.90, down 0.35%.
- Frankfurt DAX: Closed at 13,000.20, down 0.46%.
- All Ordinaries: Closed at 6,070.38, up 0.12%.
- FTSE Straits Times Index: Closed at 3,436.36, down 0.17%.
- FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI: Closed at 1,719.86, up 0.15%.
- Jakarta SE Composite Index: Closed at 6,064.59, down 0.04%.
- Thailand SET Index: Closed at 1,695.67, down 0.01%.
- Philippines SE PSEi: Closed at 8,361.69, down 0.04%.
- Taiwan SE Weighted Index: Closed at 10,750.93, down 0.95%.
- Korea SE KOSPI: Closed at 2,507.81, down 1.44%.
- Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: Closed at 29,686.19, down 0.60%.
- Shanghai SE Composite Index: Closed at 3,322.23, down 0.94%.
- India Sensex 30 Index: Closed at 33,724.44, up 0.13%.

US Treasuries

Yields:
- US Treasury yields slipped due to a pullback on Wall Street and concerns over North Korea's nuclear missile test.
- The gap between 2-year and 10-year note yields contracted to 56.30 basis points, the tightest since October 2007.
- Two Treasury auctions were held: $26 billion in two-year notes and $34 billion in five-year debt, both poorly received by investors.

Commodities

Oil Prices:
- Oil prices were lower on Monday, falling from two-year highs, but the prospect of an OPEC-led supply cut extension helped cap losses.
Gold:
- Gold prices rose, supported by a weaker dollar and anticipation of the Fed nominee's congressional testimony and Trump's tax reform meeting.

Economic News & Data

US New Home Sales:
- New home sales in October rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units, the highest level in 10 years.
- This followed a slightly downwardly revised September sales pace of 645,000 units.
- New home sales have increased for three consecutive months.
Texas Manufacturing:
- Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, with the general business activity index falling to 19.4 from 27.6 in October.
Other Data:
- Italy's overall economic sentiment index edged down to 108.8 in November.
- Japan received signals that North Korea may be preparing for a missile launch.
- PBOC extended a 400 billion yuan bilateral currency swap with HKMA for another 3 years.

Market Holidays/Events

Philippines: Bonifacio Day on 30 November.
Malaysia: Birthday of Prophet Muhammad on 1 December.
Indonesia: Maulid Nabi Muham on 1 December.
Thailand: King's Birthday on 5 December and Constitution Day on 11 December.
SG/MY: Christmas Day on 25 December.