20171113-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_252kb
报告摘要
Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (13 November 2017)
Core Content Overview
This report provides a detailed analysis of global economic and financial market trends as of 13 November 2017, focusing on currency movements, interest rates, equities, and commodities. It also highlights key economic data releases and central bank communications that are expected to influence market dynamics.
Main Highlights
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USD: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to remain capped below 95 due to uncertainty around US tax reforms. The market awaits further developments as the Senate and House plans differ, with the Senate proposal potentially delaying the corporate tax cut to 2019, which could affect US growth and USD strength.
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Asia:
- China's October retail sales, fixed asset investment (FAI), and industrial production (IP) data are expected to be released on Tuesday. There is a consensus for a slight increase in retail sales growth, while IP growth may moderate.
- The Philippines and Malaysia will release their 3Q17 GDP data, and Singapore's October non-oil domestic exports (NODX) data on Friday. Malaysia's GDP is forecast to grow at 5.5% y/y, while the Philippines is expected to maintain a strong growth rate.
- Indonesia's October trade data and monetary policy meeting are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The country's GDP growth in 3Q17 was slightly below expectations at 5.06% y/y.
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India: The CPI is expected to rise to 3.45% y/y in October due to higher food prices from heavy rain. This may limit further interest rate cuts by the central bank.
Central Bank Outlook
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ECB: There has been a shift in market expectations regarding the ECB's monetary policy, with several officials suggesting a potential end to the asset purchase programme. The ECB reduced its monthly asset purchase amount to EUR 30 bn in October, but did not signal a clear end to the programme.
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RBA: The RBA maintains a neutral stance on monetary policy and expects underlying inflation to reach the target range by early 2019. It also warns that further appreciation of the AUD could slow economic growth and inflation.
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Bank Indonesia (BI): BI is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% on Thursday, despite weaker GDP growth in 3Q17. The current account deficit narrowed in 3Q17 to 1.65% of GDP.
Market Movements
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EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has climbed above 1.16, supported by higher German bund yields. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.1650.
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AUD/USD: The AUD is expected to trade higher, supported by a positive outlook on energy and bulk commodity prices. The pair is likely to move back up towards 0.80.
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Asian Currencies: The MYR rose by 1.1% against the USD, while the INR and CNH fell by 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. The SGD NEER is expected to trade between 1.0% and 1.5% above the midpoint, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.3565 - 1.3632.
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CNY: The CNY ended flat at 6.6430/USD, while the offshore CNH closed weaker at 6.6676/USD.
Equities
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US Indices: The S&P 500 closed with a 2-point loss to 2,582.3, while the Nasdaq managed a 0.9-point gain to 6,750.9. The market was affected by ongoing discussions on US tax reform.
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Asian Indices: Asian stock indices mostly ended lower on Friday. The Nikkei 225 and HSI fell by 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively. The SHCOMP Index gained 0.1%, while the KOSPI fell by 0.3%. The STI fell by 0.1%, and the Thai SET closed down by 0.8%.
US Treasuries
- Yields: The 10Y UST yield recovered to 2.40% from 2.35%, while the 2Y UST yield remained firm at 1.66%. The 10-2 yield spread increased to 74 bps.
- High Yield Fixed Income: The US high yield fixed income market saw intensified selling pressure.
Commodities
- Gold: Remained capped below USD 1,280/oz due to higher 10Y US Treasuries yields.
- Crude Oil: Prices remained supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with front month Brent Crude Oil futures trading around USD 63.50/bbl.
- LME Metals Index: Held above 3,200 after a mild correction.
Economic Data & Events
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Key Data Releases:
- China's October retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production data are expected on Tuesday.
- Indonesia's October trade data is due on Wednesday, with the current account deficit narrowing to 1.65% of GDP.
- The Philippines and Malaysia will release their 3Q17 GDP data on Friday.
- Hong Kong's 3Q GDP growth moderated to 3.6% y/y, with the government adjusting inflation forecasts.
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APEC Summit: The 11 remaining Pacific Rim countries made progress towards a TPP deal without the US, with a final announcement expected as early as next year.
Foreign Exchange Rates (as at 10 Nov 2017)
| FX | Close | Asian High | Asian Low | NY High | NY Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | 1.1665 | 1.1678 | 1.1600 | 1.1678 | 1.1623 |
| GBP | 1.3196 | 1.3230 | 1.3093 | 1.3230 | 1.3113 |
| AUD | 0.7661 | 0.7695 | 0.7650 | 0.7695 | 0.7654 |
| NZD | 0.6937 | 0.6980 | 0.6921 | 0.6958 | 0.6921 |
| JPY | 113.53 | 113.69 | 113.09 | 113.64 | 113.22 |
| SGD | 1.3602 | 1.3621 | 1.3583 | 1.3613 | 1.3583 |
| MYR | 4.1918 | 4.1988 | 4.1900 | 4.1988 | 4.1900 |
| IDR | 13543 | 13579 | 13508 | - | - |
| THB | 33.12 | 33.15 | 33.08 | - | - |
| PHP | 51.253 | 51.338 | 51.097 | - | - |
| INR | 65.166 | 65.195 | 65.000 | - | - |
| TWD | 30.172 | 30.182 | 30.166 | - | - |
| KRW | 1116.99 | 1119.07 | 1116.13 | - | - |
| HKD | 7.8024 | 7.8035 | 7.7983 | - | - |
| CNY | 6.6409 | 6.6455 | 6.6299 | - | - |
Stock Indices (as of 10 Nov 2017)
| Indices | Closing | % Chg | ytd % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 32422.21 | -0.17 | +18.52 |
| S&P 500 | 2582.30 | -0.09 | +15.43 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 6750.94 | +0.01 | +25.41 |
| Tokyo Nikkei 225 | 22681.42 | -0.82 | +18.66 |
| London FTSE 100 | 7432.99 | -0.68 | +4.06 |
| Frankfurt DAX | 13127.47 | -0.42 | +14.34 |
| All Ordinaries | 6104.27 | -0.30 | +0.73 |
| FTSE Straits Times Index | 3420.10 | -0.11 | +18.72 |
| FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI | 1742.28 | -0.26 | +6.12 |
| Jakarta SE Composite Index | 6021.83 | -0.34 | +13.69 |
| Thailand SET Index | 1689.28 | -0.81 | +9.48 |
| Philippines SE PSEi | 8433.48 | -1.01 | +23.28 |
| Taiwan SE Weighted Index | 10732.67 | -0.10 | +15.98 |
| Korea SE KOSPI | 2542.95 | -0.30 | +25.49 |
| Hong Kong Hang Seng Index | 29120.92 | -0.05 | +32.36 |
| Shanghai SE Composite Index | 3432.67 | +0.14 | +10.60 |
| India Sensex 30 Index | 33314.56 | +0.19 | +25.12 |
UOB's Estimation of SGD NEER (as of 13 November 2017)
| Range | Value |
|---|---|
| Lower-End | 1.4048 |
| Upper-End | 1.3497 |
| Mid-Point | 1.3767 |
Interest Rates
| Rates | Current | Next CB Meet | UOB's Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD Fed Funds Rate | 1.00% | 13 Dec | 1.00% |
| EUR Refinancing Rate | 0.00% | 14 Dec | 0.00% |
| GBP Repo Rate | 0.50% | 14 Dec | 0.50% |
| AUD Official Cash Rate | 1.50% | 05 Dec | 1.50% |
| NZD Official Cash Rate | 1.75% | 09 Nov | 1.75% |
| JPY Official Cash Rate | 0-0.10% | 21 Dec | 0-0.10% |
| MYR O/N Policy Rate | 3.00% | 09 Nov | 3.00% |
| IDR 7-Day Repo Rate | 4.25% | 16 Nov | 4.25% |
| THB 1-Day Repo Rate | 1.50% | 20 Dec | 1.50% |
| PHP O/N Reverse Repo | 3.00% | 14 Dec | 3.00% |
| INR Repo Rate | 6.00% | - | 6.00% |
| TWD Discount Rate | 1.375% | 15 Dec | 1.375% |
| KRW Base Rate | 1.25% | 30 Nov | 1.25% |
| HKD Base Rate | 1.00% | - | 1.00% |
| CNY 1-Yr Wking Capital | 4.35% | - | 4.35% |
Commodities (as of 10 Nov 2017)
| Commodities | Closing | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
| NYMEX Crude (Dec) | 56.74 | -0.75 |
| Comex Gold (Dec) | 1274.20 | -1.03 |
| Reuters CRB Index | 191.65 | -0.11 |
Bond Yields (as of 10 Nov 2017)
| Bond Yields | Closing | Net Chg |
|---|---|---|
| US 2-Year Bond | 1.65 | +2.0 |
| US 10-Year Bond | 2.40 | +5.6 |
| JP 10-Year JGB | 0.04 | +1.3 |
| EU 10-Year Bund | 0.41 | +3.5 |
| UK 10-Year Long Gilt | 1.34 | +7.7 |
Market Holidays/Events
| Country | Date | Event |
|---|---|---|
| US/JP | Nov 23 | Thanksgiving |
| PH | Nov 30 | Bonifacio Day |
| MY | Dec 1 | Birthday of Prophet Muhammad |
| ID | Dec 1 | Maulid Nabi Muham |
| TH | Dec 5 | King's Birthday |
| TH | Dec 11 | Constitution Day |
| SK | Dec 20 | Election Day |
| SG/MY | Dec 25 | Christmas Day |
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