20171109-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_249kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of global economic and financial market conditions as of November 9, 2017. It includes updates on central bank decisions, FX rates, stock indices, interest rates, commodity prices, and economic data for key countries such as the U.S., China, Malaysia, Thailand, and others.

Key Highlights

Central Bank Decisions and Outlook

New Zealand: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the OCR at 1.75%. Governor Spencer noted that the new government's policies are "very uncertain" and emphasized that the RBNZ may allow greater inflation volatility to support employment.
Malaysia: The Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 5.4-5.5% for the year. The central bank is optimistic about growth and will likely delay any tightening until after the General Elections.
Philippines: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may face pressure to raise interest rates due to rising inflation risks from higher oil prices and a deteriorating current account.
ECB: ECB officials are expected to discuss the pace of policy normalization, with a focus on winding down asset purchases.

FX Market Movements

USD: Declined against most G-10 peers due to uncertainty over U.S. tax reform.
NZD: Rose 0.9% to 0.6966, a 2-week high, after RBNZ left rates unchanged and moved up the inflation target date to 2Q 2018.
AUD and CAD: Both gained 0.4% against the USD.
EUR/USD: Traded around 1.16 handle, finishing little changed at 1.1595.
GBP/USD: Fell 0.4% to 1.3116 due to political concerns over the UK government.
USD/JPY: Dipped to a 1-week low of 113.40 but was quickly bought back.
HKD: Ended up 0.1% at 7.7978/USD after a five-month high.
CNY: Ended 0.2% firmer at 6.6312/USD, with the PBoC setting the midpoint at 6.6242/USD.

Equity Market Performance

U.S. Equities: Major indices rose, with the NASDAQ Composite gaining 0.3%. Financial shares lagged.
Asia-Pacific: The STI and Thai SET ended slightly firmer, while the KLCI and JCI closed lower.
Japan: Nikkei 225 and HSI ended lower, with the HSI down 0.3%.

U.S. Treasuries

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended a 5-day decline, rising 2bp to 2.334%.

Commodities

WTI Crude: Slid 0.7% to $56.81/bbl due to a surge in U.S. oil production.
Gold: Rose 0.5% to $1,281.36 an ounce, supported by a softer dollar.

Economic Data

China: CPI for October is expected to rise to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% in September, while PPI is forecast to moderate to 6.6% y/y. The trade surplus for October was $38.17bn, up from $28.61bn in September.
Malaysia: Sep industrial production (IP) is expected to grow at 6.3% y/y, below the previous 6.8%.
Thailand: The BoT indicated that monetary policy will remain accommodative, with a focus on sustaining growth and ensuring financial stability. The 3Q GDP is expected to grow steadily, driven by exports and public expenditure.
Philippines: The economy grew at 6.5% y/y in 3Q, with a 1.7% q/q growth rate.

Interest Rates

UOB's Forecast: The SGD NEER is expected to trade between 1.0% and 1.5% above the midpoint, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.3572-1.3640.
Key Rates: The U.S. Fed Funds Rate remains at 1.00%, while the ECB Refinancing Rate is at 0.00%. The UK Repo Rate is at 0.50%, and the JPY rate is at 0-0.10%.

Market Holidays/Events

Thanksgiving: U.S. and Japan (Nov 23)
Bonifacio Day: Philippines (Nov 30)
Birthday of Prophet Muhammad: Malaysia (Dec 1)
Maulid Nabi Muham: Indonesia (Dec 1)
King's Birthday: Thailand (Dec 5)
Constitution Day: Thailand (Dec 11)
Election Day: South Korea (Dec 20)
Christmas Day: Singapore and Malaysia (Dec 25)

Summary of Key Views

Central banks in New Zealand, Malaysia, and the Philippines are expected to maintain current interest rates, with potential rate hikes for the Philippines in the future.
The U.S. dollar weakened against many G-10 peers, influenced by uncertainty around tax reform and a softer dollar.
China's economic data showed a slight slowdown in export and import growth, but the trade surplus remained robust.
The U.S. equity market showed strength, with tech stocks leading the way.
Thailand and Malaysia are expected to maintain accommodative monetary policies to support growth.
The BOJ is not expected to change its ETF purchase strategy, and there is no evidence of market manipulation.
The U.S. is expected to announce over $250bn in business deals with China during Trump's visit.

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