20171107-大华银行-Markets_Overview_4页_248kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (07 November 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an overview of global economic and market conditions as of 07 November 2017, including economic data releases, central bank outlooks, foreign exchange rates, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, and bond yields. It also highlights upcoming market events and holidays.

Key Economic Highlights

Japan's Labour Survey: Expected to provide insights into labor market trends.
UK's BRC Survey: Will offer data on consumer spending in October.
Germany's Industrial Production: September data is anticipated to show strong performance.
Italian and Euro Area Retail Sales: September figures are expected to reflect economic activity.
UK's Halifax House Price Index: October data will be released.
US JOLTS Survey and Consumer Credit Data: Likely affected by recent storms.
Philippines CPI: Expected to be released at 9:00 am on 07 November.
Taiwan CPI and Trade Data: Released at 4:00 pm on 07 November, with inflation expected to ease.
China's FX Reserves: Projected to increase for the 9th consecutive month in October.
Indonesia GDP Growth: 3Q17 growth came in below expectations at 5.06% y/y.
Euro Area PMI: October services PMI was revised up to 55.0, while composite PMI was revised to 56.0.
Germany's Factory Orders: Stronger than expected in September, with a notable increase.

Central Bank Outlook

RBA: Expected to maintain a neutral policy stance, with a revised forecast approach.
Fed: Freshly minted Governor Randall Quarles will speak at the Clearing House Conference. Fed President Dudley emphasized the need for Congress to "do no harm" in regulatory discussions.
New York Fed: Dudley will retire mid-2018.

Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates

USD/SGD: Closed at 1.3616, down 0.25%, with a predicted range of 1.3565 - 1.3632.
CNY: Inched higher against USD, with the PBoC expected to set the midpoint at 6.6190/USD.
IDR: Closed down by 0.2% at 13,524/USD due to weak GDP growth.
KRW and TWD: Both closed lower by 0.1% against USD.
MYR: Gained 0.1% to 4.2330/USD due to higher crude oil prices.
EUR/USD: Stayed near 1.17.
USD/JPY: Sold over 114.70.
GBP: Started the week stronger as the UK considered paying EUR63bn for trade deals.
CAD: Modestly lifted by higher crude prices, though USD/CAD remained at 1.2700.

Stock Indices

Wall Street: Hit record highs, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting gains.
Asia-Pacific Indices: The SHCOMP Index rose 0.5%, while the FTSE Straits Times Index and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI showed mixed performance.
Other Indices: Tokyo Nikkei 225, London FTSE 100, and Frankfurt DAX had minor gains or losses.

US Treasuries

Yield Curve: Contracted to its tightest levels in a decade due to sluggish inflation and uncertainty over the tax plan.
Bond Yields: The 2-year yield rose to 1.62%, while the 10-year yield fell to 2.32%.
Supply of Debt: The Treasury will sell $24bn in 3-year notes, $23bn in 10-year debt, and $15bn in 30-year bonds.

Commodities

Oil Prices: Surged to over $64/bbl for Brent crude and above $57/bbl for US crude, driven by geopolitical tensions.
Gold: Rose over 1% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid uncertainty.
CRB Index: Increased by 1.68%, indicating a broad rise in commodity prices.

Interest Rates

USD Fed Funds Rate: At 1.00%, with the next meeting on 13 December.
EUR Refinancing Rate: At 0.00%, next meeting on 14 December.
GBP Repo Rate: At 0.50%, next meeting on 14 December.
AUD Official Cash Rate: At 1.50%, next meeting on 07 November.
NZD Official Cash Rate: At 1.75%, next meeting on 09 November.
MYR O/N Policy Rate: At 3.00%, next meeting on 09 November.
IDR 7-Day Repo Rate: At 4.25%, next meeting on 16 November.
THB 1-Day Repo Rate: At 1.50%, next meeting on 08 November.
PHP O/N Reverse Repo: At 3.00%, next meeting on 09 November.
INR Repo Rate: At 6.00%.
TWD Discount Rate: At 1.375%, next meeting on 15 December.
KRW Base Rate: At 1.25%, next meeting on 30 November.
HKD Base Rate: At 1.00%.
CNY 1-Yr Working Capital Rate: At 4.35%.

Market Holidays/Events

Thanksgiving (US/JP): 23 November
Bonifacio Day (PH): 30 November
Birthday of Prophet Muhammad (MY): 1 December
Maulid Nabi Muham (ID): 1 December
King's Birthday (TH): 5 December
Constitution Day (TH): 11 December
Election Day (SK): 20 December
Christmas Day (SG/MY): 25 December

Summary of Key Views

Economic Data: A variety of economic indicators, including PMIs, GDP, and CPI, are expected to provide insights into global economic performance.
Central Banks: The RBA is expected to maintain a neutral stance, while the Fed is monitoring regulatory changes.
FX Market: The USD weakened against several currencies, with notable movements in SGD, CNY, and MYR.
Stock Markets: Global equities, especially in the US, reached record highs, with Asian markets showing mixed results.
Commodities: Oil and gold prices rose, reflecting geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.
Interest Rates: Central banks in various countries are expected to keep rates unchanged, with some maintaining a neutral stance.
Market Volatility: Concerns over geopolitical risks and economic data are influencing currency and market movements.