20171110-大华继显-Markets_Overview_4页_249kb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary (10 November 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global economic and financial market trends as of 10 November 2017, with a focus on key economic indicators, central bank outlooks, foreign exchange rates, equity indices, U.S. Treasuries, and commodities. It also highlights major upcoming economic data releases and international events that could influence market sentiment.

Key Economic Highlights

G-10 Economic Data

UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance and University of Michigan Sentiment are expected to be released.
Philippines' Sep Trade Data at 9:00 am and Singapore's Sep Retail Sales at 1:00 pm.
Indonesia's 3Q Current Account (CA) is due today, with expectations of a slight narrowing in the CA deficit.
Hong Kong's 3Q17 GDP is scheduled for release at 4:30 pm, with a forecast of growth moderating to 3.5% y/y from 3.8% in 2Q17.
India's Sep Industrial Production is also expected later today.

APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting

The APEC meeting in Vietnam starts on 10-11 November.
U.S. President Trump, China's President Xi Jinping, and Russia's President Putin will attend.
Trump is set to present the U.S.'s "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy.
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is leading the effort among TPP members to negotiate a trade deal.

Central Bank Outlook

The speaking calendar winds down for the week, with ECB's Mersch speaking at 8:30 pm and Draghi on Saturday at 6:00 pm.
ECB's Lane indicated that policy adjustments can be more decisive once inflation is on a clear path to the target.
ECB's Coeuré emphasized that quantitative easing (QE) cannot be a permanent monetary policy tool due to the lack of depth in European markets.
BNM (Bank Negara Malaysia) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00%, with a possible review in the future.

Foreign Exchange (FX) Market

The USD declined against all G-10 peers except NZD due to concerns over U.S. tax reform delays.
The DXY fell by 0.4% to 94.41.
USD/JPY dropped by 0.3% to 113.47.
CHF gained 0.6% against USD, outperforming other safe-haven currencies.
EUR/USD rose by 0.4% to 1.1642.
GBP/USD found support near 1.3085 and bounced back by 0.2% to 1.3145.
USD/SGD closed below 1.36, at 1.3590, due to broad USD weakness.
UOB's SGD NEER is expected to trade between 1.0% and 1.5% above the midpoint, implying a USD/SGD range of 1.3544 - 1.3610.
MYR gained 0.5% to 4.2065/USD after BNM signaled possible policy review.
CNY closed at 6.6428/USD on Thursday, with the PBoC expected to set the midpoint lower by 45 pips at 6.6370/USD.

Equity Markets

U.S. equities tumbled on Thursday after the Senate proposed to delay the corporate tax cut.
- Nasdaq Composite fell 0.6% to 6,750.05.
- Dow Jones and S&P 500 both fell 0.4% to 23,461.94 and 2,584.62 respectively.
Asian equity indexes were mixed:
- Nikkei 225 reversed an intraday gain and closed down 0.2%.
- HSI rose 0.8% to a 10-year high.
- SHCOMP Index was up 0.4%.
- STI and KLCI ended up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

U.S. Treasuries

U.S. Treasury yields rose for a second day due to risk aversion.
The 10-year benchmark increased by 1bp to 2.341%.

Commodities

WTI Crude climbed 0.6% to $57.17/bbl, reversing two consecutive days of losses.
Spot gold rose by $3.71 per ounce to $1,285.07, driven by risk aversion and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

Economic News & Data

China's CPI accelerated to 1.9% y/y in October, up from 1.6% in September.
China's PPI rose to 6.9% y/y, indicating continued economic momentum.
Philippines' BSP left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.00%, with an updated 2018 inflation forecast at 3.4%.
Malaysia's 3Q GDP is expected to be released on 17 November, with a growth forecast of 5.2% - 5.7% for 2017 and 5.0% - 5.5% for 2018.
Indonesia's 3Q CA is expected to show a slight narrowing, with a forecast of 2.5% - 3.5% inflation in 2018.