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Rice Outlook Summary - July 2022

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2022/23 marketing year, including production, supply, demand, and price forecasts. It also highlights the impact of domestic and international factors on the rice market.

Main Points

U.S. 2022/23 Production Forecast

• Total Production: Reduced to 174.5 million cwt, a 9% decrease from the previous estimate.
• Long-grain Production: Lowered by 1.9 million cwt to 139.0 million cwt, a 4% decrease from the prior year.
• Medium- and short-grain Production: Reduced by 15% to 35.5 million cwt, a 25% decrease from the prior year and the lowest since 1985/86.
• Harvested Area: Estimated at 2.038 million acres, down 7.5% from a year earlier due to drought and high input costs.
• Yield: Lowered by 37 pounds per acre to 7,561 pounds, reflecting the smaller share of California's high-yield production.

U.S. 2022/23 Supply and Use

• Total Supply: Increased slightly to 259.5 million cwt, driven by higher imports and carryin, but still down 5% from a year earlier.
• Imports: Raised to a record 43.0 million cwt, up 12% from the prior estimate. This includes a record 10.0 million cwt of medium- and short-grain imports.
• Exports: Reduced to 79.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from the prior estimate. Milled rice exports are at 45.0 million cwt, the lowest since 1965/66.
• Domestic and Residual Use: Raised to 145.0 million cwt, with long-grain use at 115.0 million cwt and medium- and short-grain use at 30.0 million cwt.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 35.5 million cwt, up 1.3 million cwt from the prior estimate, but still 15.5% below a year earlier.

U.S. 2022/23 Prices

• Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP): Raised to a record $18.20 per cwt for all rice.
• California SAFP: Increased to a record $31.00 per cwt for medium- and short-grain rice due to smaller plantings.
• Southern SAFP: Raised to $26.20 per cwt, up $16.00 from a year earlier.
• Long-grain SAFP: Remains at a record $15.50 per cwt.

Key Factors Influencing the Market

• California Drought: Led to a significant reduction in rice plantings and lower yields, affecting both production and prices.
• High Input Costs: Contributed to the decline in rice plantings in several southern states.
• Global Market Dynamics: Reduced global production forecasts for the EU, South Korea, and the U.S., but global consumption and trade remain high.
• International Price Trends: Thailand's milled rice prices dropped 6%, while India and Pakistan saw price increases. U.S. long-grain prices rose, and medium- and short-grain prices remain record high.

Global Outlook

2022/23 Global Production

• Global Production: Lowered to 514.8 million tons (milled basis), still the highest on record.
• Production Reductions: The EU, South Korea, and the U.S. accounted for most of the 0.6 million ton reduction.

Global Consumption and Trade

• Global Consumption: Lowered slightly, but still the highest on record.
• Global Ending Stocks: Reduced to 182.8 million tons, marking the third consecutive year-to-year decline.
• Global Trade: Revised up to a record 54.7 million tons, with increased exports from Cambodia and Pakistan.

Regional Outlook

California

• Plantings: Down to 285,000 acres, the smallest since 1958/59.
• SAFP: Raised to $31.00 per cwt, the highest on record due to reduced acreage.
• Impact: The sharp decline in plantings led to higher prices and reduced supply.

Southern States

• Plantings: Generally lower than a year earlier, with Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas showing the most significant declines.
• Crop Progress: Near normal in most states, but Texas had the lowest crop condition ratings due to extreme heat and drought.

Summary of Key Tables

Conclusion

The U.S. rice market for 2022/23 is characterized by reduced production and supply, increased imports, and record-high prices, especially for medium- and short-grain rice. Global production and trade remain strong, but with some reductions in key regions like the EU and South Korea. The market outlook is influenced by drought, high input costs, and international competition.