20181113-USDA-Feed_Outlook_26页_1mb

Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the 2018/19 U.S. feed grain outlook, including domestic and international production, use, and trade projections, as well as price and stock changes.

Main Points

Domestic Outlook

• U.S. Feed Grain Supplies: Projected at 446.0 million metric tons, a 4.3 million metric ton decrease from the previous month.
• Production: Lower corn and sorghum yields reduced production, leading to 152 million bushels less corn and 18 million bushels less sorghum.
• Use: Feed and residual use is projected at 144.8 million metric tons, a 2.4 million metric ton decrease from the previous month. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use remains unchanged.
• Exports: Projected corn exports are 2,450 million bushels, a 25 million bushel decrease from the previous month. Sorghum exports are 100 million bushels, a 50 million bushel decrease.
• Ending Stocks: Projected ending stocks are 47.5 million metric tons, a 1.9 million metric ton decrease from the previous month, and 10.4 million metric tons lower than the 2017/18 level.
• Price: The projected average price for corn is $3.60 per bushel, a $0.10 per bushel increase from the previous month and $0.24 higher than the 2017/18 average.
• Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Projected at 101.1 million units, a 2.2 million unit decrease from the previous year.
• Feed and Residual Use per GCAU: Projected at 1.47 tons per unit, slightly lower than last month's 1.50 tons.

International Outlook

• Global Coarse Grain Production: Increased by 29.9 million tons to 1,373.3 million tons.
• Foreign Coarse Grain Production: Increased by 34.2 million tons to 988.2 million tons, with the largest increase coming from China due to historical multi-year data revisions.
• China's Corn Production: Revised upwards by 31.0 million tons for the 2018/19 marketing year, with a 16.5 million hectare increase in harvested area.
• Ukraine: Projected corn production and exports are record highs, with 27.0 million tons of exports, driven by ideal growing conditions and investment in production technology.
• Argentina: Projected corn production increased due to timely rains, and exports are expected to rise.
• EU and Australia: Corn production is reduced in the EU due to drought-damaged fields and lower harvested area, while Australia's sorghum production increased due to drought relief.
• Sorghum Exports: Projected to be 5.5 million bushels, a 1.0 million bushel decrease due to slower export sales and decline in Mexican imports.
• Barley Trade: Increased by 0.2 million tons, with Saudi Arabia and Russia showing higher import prospects, and Algeria and Australia showing lower.

Key Information

• U.S. Corn Yields: NASS projected a 1.8 bushel per acre decrease to 178.9 bushels, the fourth survey-based forecast.
• Corn Prices: Increased to $3.60 per bushel, reflecting lower supply and higher demand.
• Sorghum Yields: Reduced by 3.6 bushels per acre to 71.4 bushels, leading to 18.2 million bushels less production.
• China's Corn Stocks: Projected at 207.5 million tons, representing a 149.0 million ton increase from the previous year, with a 75% stocks-to-use ratio.
• U.S. Exports: Corn exports are projected at 62.0 million tons, a 0.5 million ton decrease from the previous month, but still near record levels.
• Fuel Ethanol Use: In 2017/18, 5,605 million bushels of corn were used for fuel ethanol, an 173 million bushel increase from the previous year.
• Data Revisions: The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics revised historical data, significantly affecting global corn production and trade estimates.

Summary of Changes

Figures and Maps

• Figure 1: U.S. corn harvested area and yield
• Figure 2: U.S. corn utilization
• Figure 3: U.S. corn exports
• Figure 4: U.S. dried distillers grains with solubles exports
• Figure 5: Monthly corn prices
• Figure 6: U.S. fuel ethanol exports
• Figure 7: U.S. sorghum harvested area and yield
• Figure 8: Sorghum harvest progress
• Figure 9: Sorghum and corn prices
• Figure 10: China's share of global corn production and stocks
• Map A: Corn production changes
• Map B: Corn feed and residual use changes
• Map C: Corn ending stocks changes
• Map D: Corn trade year imports changes

Conclusion

The report highlights reduced U.S. corn and sorghum yields and lower production, which have led to higher prices and reduced exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine's record corn production and China's revised data significantly influence global supply and demand dynamics. The stocks-to-use ratio for China is expected to be 75%, reflecting increased domestic stock levels. The U.S. remains a major exporter, but faces competition from Ukraine and slower export sales for sorghum.