20170714-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.07.14_32页_1mb

Feed Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the U.S. and global feed grain outlook for the 2017/18 marketing year, based on the latest projections from the World Agricultural Outlook Board. It includes updates on production, supply, use, prices, and stocks, as well as a special focus on the hay and forage situation in the Dakotas and Montana due to drought conditions.

Key Highlights

U.S. Corn Outlook

• Projected Acreage: Increased to 90.9 million acres, up 890,000 from the previous forecast.
• Harvest Acreage: Adjusted to 83.5 million acres.
• Production: Raised to 14.255 billion bushels, up 190 million bushels from last month, making it the second-largest crop on record.
• Feed and Residual Use: Increased to 5,475 million bushels, up 50 million from last month.
• Ending Stocks: Raised to 2.325 billion bushels, up 215 million bushels from last month, still 45 million below last year's level.
• Average Price: Lowered to $3.30 per bushel, a $0.10 decrease from last month's forecast.
• Supply Drivers: Larger production and imports, along with higher beginning stocks (2,370 million bushels, the highest since 1988/89).

Other Feed Grains

• Sorghum:
  • Production: Raised to 356 million bushels, up 25 million from last month.
  • Feed and Residual Use: Raised to 60 million bushels.
  • Ending Stocks: Raised by 20 million bushels due to increased production.
  • Price Range: $2.50 to $3.30 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month's range.
• Barley:
  • Production: Forecast at 142.9 million bushels, down 16 million from last month.
  • Supply: Reduced to 266.0 million bushels.
  • Ending Stocks: Reduced to 73.0 million bushels, down 19 million from last year.
  • Price Range: Raised to $5.05 to $6.05 per bushel, with a midpoint of $5.55 per bushel, up $0.59 from last year.
• Oats:
  • Production: Lowered to 53.7 million bushels, down 6 million from last month.
  • Supply: Reduced to 206.2 million bushels.
  • Ending Stocks: Projected at 34.2 million bushels, down 18 million from last season.
  • Price Range: $2.15 to $2.65 per bushel, up $0.34 from last year.

Global Outlook

• World Coarse Grain Production (2017/18): Projected at 1,316.5 million tons, up 6.2 million from last month.
  • U.S. Contribution: 375.4 million tons, up 5.0 million, contributing the majority of the increase.
  • Foreign Contribution: 941.1 million tons, up 1.2 million, with the largest increase in Turkey (barley).
• World Coarse Grain Use (2017/18): Projected at 1,351.2 million tons, up 1.7 million, with most of the increase in the U.S.
• World Ending Stocks (2017/18): Projected at 228.5 million tons, up 7.5 million, still the lowest in 4 years.
• Corn Trade:
  • 2016/17: Global trade reduced by 1.7 million tons to 144.5 million tons.
  • 2017/18: Trade unchanged at 150.8 million tons.
  • U.S. Exports: Projected at 47.5 million tons for 2017/18, unchanged this month.
  • Brazilian Exports: Up 0.5 million tons for 2017/18, but down 1.0 million for 2016/17.
  • Ukrainian Exports: Up 1.5 million tons to 20.5 million bushels for 2017/18.

Hay and Forage Situation

• Drought Impact: Drought has worsened in the Dakotas and Montana, leading to increased hay demand.
• Supply Constraints: Hay supplies are tight due to limited availability and poor yields caused by drought.
• Beginning Stocks: Low levels in Montana and North Dakota (lowest since 2013) and South Dakota (lowest since 2014).
• Prices: Hay prices have risen sharply in South Dakota and other affected areas.
• Outlook: If rains do not resume, many producers may need to liquidate herds or purchase hay at high costs.

Trade Data Revisions

• Annual Census Revisions: Resulted in minor adjustments to trade data, with some offsetting effects.
• Corn Imports: Fractional increases in 2014/15 and 2015/16.
• Barley Imports: Raised by less than 100,000 bushels.
• Oats Imports: No significant changes.

Summary of Changes

• Corn: Higher production and feed use, lower prices.
• Sorghum: Higher production and feed use, lower prices.
• Barley: Higher prices, lower production and supply.
• Oats: Lower production and supply, higher prices.
• Hay: Increased demand due to drought, tight supplies, and rising prices.

Figures and Maps

• Figure 1: U.S. corn utilization.
• Figure 2: U.S. corn feed and residual use.
• Figure 3: U.S. corn for ethanol use by quarter.
• Figure 4: U.S. corn oil exports.
• Figure 5: U.S. corn (yellow #2) prices for Central Illinois and Louisiana Gulf.
• Figure 6: U.S. sorghum exports.
• Figure 7: U.S. corn gluten feed exports.
• Map A: Barley production changes.
• Map B: Corn feed consumption changes.
• Map C: Corn ending stocks changes.
• U.S. Drought Monitor: Highlights drought conditions across the U.S. with intensities from D0 to D4.