20180814-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2018.08.14_25页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2018/19 Feed Outlook Report

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive outlook for the U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2018/19 marketing year, focusing on production, use, trade, and prices. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, production trends, and demand shifts on the supply and demand dynamics of major feed grains, including corn, sorghum, barley, and oats.

Main Points and Key Information

U.S. Corn Outlook

Record Yield: The first survey-based yield forecast for the 2018/19 corn crop indicates a record yield of 178.4 bushels per acre, up 4.4 bushels from the previous month and 3.7 bushels higher than the previous year.
Production: With a forecasted harvested area of 81.8 million acres, the total corn production is projected at 14,586 million bushels, 356 million bushels higher than last month’s forecast.
Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 100 million bushels to 5,525 million, driven by higher production, lower prices, and increased livestock production.
Exports: Projected at 2,350 million bushels, up 125 million bushels from last month due to improved U.S. competitiveness and reduced Brazilian competition.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 1,684 million bushels, up 131 million bushels from last month. The stocks-to-use ratio is 11.2, indicating some easing of supply constraints.
Farm Price: The projected average price received by farmers is $3.60 per bushel, down $0.20 from the previous month.

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

Yield Increase: Projected yield of 70.9 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels from the trend yield.
Production: Projected at 375.4 million bushels, up 19.4 million bushels from last month.
Use: Total projected use is up 25.0 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year, mainly due to increased ethanol use.
Exports: Revised down by 20.0 million bushels to 210.0 million, due to lack of reported exports.
Ending Stocks: Up 10.0 million bushels to 39.7 million, with a projected farm price range of $2.90 to $3.90 per bushel, mid-point at $3.40.

U.S. Barley Outlook

Yield Increase: Projected yield of 76.3 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month and 3.7 bushels from the previous year.
Production: Projected at 156.2 million bushels, up 1.6 million bushels from last month.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 270.9 million bushels, with a season-average farm price range of $4.00 to $5.20 per bushel, mid-point at $4.60.

U.S. Oats Outlook

Yield Decrease: Projected yield of 65.1 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the previous month.
Production: Projected at 65.7 million bushels, down 0.7 million bushels from last month.
Ending Stocks: Projected at 201.7 million bushels, up 12.6 million bushels from the previous year.
Farm Price: Mid-point at $2.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

World Production: Up 5.2 million tons to 1,342.1 million tons due to increased U.S. production and European declines.
EU Production: Down 4.2 million tons to 150.4 million tons, driven by poor weather in Germany and France.
Zambia: Production decline of 1.1 million tons due to poor growing conditions.
Zimbabwe: Production increase of 0.7 million tons.

Global Coarse Grain Use

Use Increase: Up 3.6 million tons to 1,381.7 million tons, with most of the increase coming from the U.S.
EU Corn Use: Increased by 1.0 million tons due to increased imports.
Brazil Feeding: Increased by 1.0 million tons in both 2017/18 and 2018/19 due to domestic meat production growth.

Global Coarse Grain Trade

Exports: Up 2.0 million tons to 156.0 million tons for 2018/19, with U.S. corn exports increasing by 2.5 million tons.
Ukraine: Corn exports increased by 0.5 million tons.
Sorghum Trade: Slightly down by 0.7 million tons for 2017/18, with U.S. exports reduced due to lower shipments to China.

Key Trends and Impacts

The U.S. corn yield is projected to set a record, contributing to a larger supply and increased global feeding.
EU production declines are offset by U.S. gains, leading to global supply stability.
Feed and residual use is rising across all categories due to increased livestock production and higher corn availability.
Corn exports are expected to be stronger in 2018/19 due to improved U.S. competitiveness and reduced Brazilian competition.
Sorghum use is increasing, particularly for ethanol production, despite a decline in exports due to reduced foreign demand.

Conclusion

The 2018/19 feed grain outlook reflects a positive shift in U.S. production, particularly for corn, which is expected to set a record yield. This has led to increased global supplies and higher trade volumes, especially with Ukraine and the U.S.. While EU production declines are notable, the U.S. is expected to offset these losses, leading to a net increase in global supplies. The farm prices for corn and sorghum are projected to be lower, and use is expected to increase due to higher livestock production and ethanol demand.