20150727-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_289kb
报告摘要
Asia Property Weekly Summary
Core Content Overview
This summary provides an analysis of the Asia property market, including key news updates, market performance, and upcoming events across various regions. It highlights changes in residential and commercial property prices, transaction volumes, and market dynamics.
Key News and Updates
Hong Kong
- Residential Sales: 390 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Jul 26, a significant increase of over 7 times compared to the previous week's 53 units, and 69% above the 3-month average of 231 units.
- Secondary Market Prices: Secondary residential market prices increased by 0.5% week-on-week as of Jul 19, with a year-to-date increase of 7.5%.
- Link REIT's Acquisition: Link REIT announced the acquisition of two prime office towers in Shanghai (Corporate Avenue 1 & 2) from Shui On Land for Rmb6,600.86mn.
- Government Land Sales: A residential site in Shek Kip Mei (GFA: 632,379sf) and a commercial site in Yuen Long (GFA: 497,620sf) were added to the government's Land Sale Programme.
- Office Vacancy: The office vacancy rate in Central Hong Kong declined by 0.6 percentage points to 1.7% in Jun 2015, the lowest since Nov 2008. Office rents in Central increased by 7% in 1H 2015.
China
- Residential Market:
- In 17 cities with data, transaction volumes decreased by a median of -2% week-on-week.
- On a year-over-year basis, 29 out of 30 cities saw an increase in volumes (median +45%).
- In 12 cities, residential prices remained flat week-on-week.
- On a year-over-year basis, 8 out of 11 cities saw price increases (median +14%).
- Evergrande Real Estate Group: Shares edged up on Jul 21 after the third announcement in July to list a non-property business in an onshore small-cap trading platform.
- Government Policy: Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli urged authorities to prevent housing speculation in Beijing's surrounding areas and to integrate the capital city with its neighboring regions.
India
- Warburg Pincus Investment: Rs18,000mn was invested for a minority stake in Piramal Realty, the real estate development arm of Ajay Piramal Group.
Japan
- Used House Prices: The average used house price in the Tokyo metropolitan area for Jun was ¥30.11mn (+0.4% yoy), up for 10 consecutive months.
- Kinki Area: The average used house price in the Kinki area was ¥18.4mn (+0.2% yoy), driven by Osaka.
- Real Estate Transactions: In Apr-Jun, 8,930 used condo units were closed, up 8.4% year-over-year. The unit price per sqm was ¥4.507k, up 7.1% yoy.
- Tokyo Tatemono Sale: The first round sale of "Brillia Towers Meguro" (495 units) saw 75% of the total units sold. The majority of buyers were aged 40-60.
Singapore
- Private Home Prices: Private home prices fell by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q15, compared to a 1.0% decline in 1Q15. The vacancy rate rose to 7.9% from 7.2% in 1Q15.
- Public Housing Prices: Public housing (HDB) resale prices fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q15, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline and now 10% below peak.
- Office Rentals: Office space rental in Singapore's central region fell by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, the first decline in 8 quarters.
Market Performance
Price Performance (Market-cap Weighted)
| Sub-sector | 1-wk | 1mo | 3mo | 6mo | Underlying P/E (x) | Dividend Yield (%) | % +/- Fwd. NAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (off-shore) | 1 | (7) | (13) | 7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | (39) |
| China (on-shore) | 2 | (8) | (4) | 12 | 10.9 | 2.0 | (15) |
| Hong Kong | (1) | (3) | (3) | (1) | 15.7 | 3.0 | (35) |
| India Developers | (6) | (7) | (13) | (19) | 26.6 | 1.2 | (52) |
| Japan Developers | (2) | (3) | (4) | (1) | 29.1 | 0.6 | (6) |
| Japan REITs | 0 | (3) | (5) | (9) | 26.5 | 3.1 | (15) |
| Singapore Developers | (1) | (1) | (8) | (5) | 18.9 | 2.2 | (38) |
Top / Bottom 5 Performers of the Week
Top Performers:
- OCT: +11 (1-wk), +25 (1-mo)
- Everande: +8 (1-wk), +8 (1-mo)
- China Vanke (H): +5 (1-wk), +1 (1-mo)
- K Wah Int'l: +5 (1-wk), +1 (1-mo)
- Hongkong & Shanghai hotels: +2 (1-wk), -5 (1-mo)
Bottom Performers:
- DLF: -10 (1-wk), -10 (1-mo)
- China Lading: -7 (1-wk), -17 (1-mo)
- Prestige Estate: -6 (1-wk), -13 (1-mo)
- Sunac: -6 (1-wk), -21 (1-mo)
- Obero Realty: -5 (1-wk), -6 (1-mo)
Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks
Buy-Rated Stocks:
- Agile: 130% upside potential
- Country Garden: 92% upside potential
- Shui On Land: 83% upside potential
- Tokyo Tatemono: 68% upside potential
- KWG Prop.: 59% upside potential
Sell-Rated Stocks:
- Champion REIT: -27% downside potential
- Gemdale Corp.: -24% downside potential
- Great Eagle: -9% downside potential
- Suntec REIT: -3% downside potential
Upcoming Events
| Date | Market | Events |
|---|---|---|
| 27-Jul | Hong Kong | Exports, imports, trade balance; Fortune REIT results |
| 28-Jul | Hong Kong | Yuexiu REIT results |
| 29-Jul | Japan | Retail sales |
| 30-Jul | Hong Kong | HLP, HLG, Mandarin Oriental and Hongkong Land results |
| 31-Jul | Japan | Unemployment rate |
| 31-Jul | Singapore | Unemployment rate; MGCCT and GLP results |
| 31-Jul | Hong Kong | Retail sales |
| 1-Aug | China | Manufacturing/Non-manufacturing PMI |
Key Research for the Week
- CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CACT.SI): In line with expectations, supported by passing rent headroom (Jul 25).
- Shui On Land (0272.HK): Asset disposal of Shanghai XTD project crystallizes value; CL-Buy (Jul 24).
- Link REIT (0823.HK): First foray into Shanghai office (Jul 24).
- Tianjin Development Holdings (0882.HK): Long-waited Pharma injection announced; 4-7% earnings accretive (Jul 23).
- CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMLT.SI): In line with expectations; rental reversion growth breaks 5-yr trend (Jul 22).
- Global Logistic Properties (GLPL.SI): CLF II underscores GLP's China focus and strong capital partners (Jul 21).
- Oberoi Realty (OEBO.BO): Oberoi on track to grow pre-sales 2X in FY16; reiterate Buy (Jul 21).
- Hui Xian REIT (87001.HK): In line with expectations; BOP steady, COP starts to contribute (Jul 20).
Summary of Residential Market
| City | Price Index (Jan-06=100) | vs end-12 | Last Update | QoQ Price Change | MoM Price Change | Week-on-Week Price Change | Volume Transacted (ksqm/wk) | MoM Volume Change | Week-on-Week Volume Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | 273 | 24% | 19-Jul-15 | +4% | +5% | +3% | 390 | +11% | -0% |
| Beijing | 354 | 17% | 26-Jul-15 | -4% | +3% | +2% | 311 | -0% | -15% |
| Shanghai | 285 | 60% | 26-Jul-15 | +6% | -1% | -1% | 425 | +8% | -2% |
| Guangzhou | 90 | 31% | 26-Jul-15 | -1% | -2% | +1% | 189 | +18% | -4% |
| Shenzhen | 309 | 78% | 26-Jul-15 | +12% | -15% | -6% | 151 | +50% | -23% |
Summary of Commercial Property Market
Office Rental Value
| City | Rental Index (Jan-06=100) | vs end-12 | Last Update | QoQ Change | MoM Change | Vacancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | 175 | 4% | 31-Dec-14 | +1% | +0% | 4% |
| Beijing | 297 | 35% | 31-Mar-15 | -2% | +0% | 2% |
| Shanghai | 151 | 2% | 31-Mar-15 | -1% | +2% | 9% |
| Guangzhou | 154 | 2% | 31-Mar-15 | -2% | -1% | 7% |
| Shenzhen | 260 | 25% | 31-Mar-15 | +4% | -4% | 6% |
| Tokyo | 92 | 1% | 31-Mar-15 | +2% | +0% | 6% |
Office Supply and Take-Up
| City | Existing Stocks (ksqm) | Vacancy | Completion (ksqm) | Take-Up (ksqm) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | 7,386 | 4% | 125 | 32 |
| Beijing | 5,839 | 3% | 140 | 423 |
| Shanghai | 6,681 | 9% | 748 | 430 |
| Guangzhou | 3,443 | 10% | 396 | 336 |
| Shenzhen | 2,514 | 8% | 580 | 174 |
| Tokyo | 7,314 | 7% | 569 | 732 |
Retail Rental Value
| City | Rental Index (Jan-06=100) | vs end-12 | Last Update | QoQ Change | MoM Change | Vacancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | 185 | 6% | 31-Dec-14 | +1% | +0% | not available |
| Beijing | 193 | 15% | 31-Dec-14 | +1% | +0% | +6% |
| Shanghai | 133 | 6% | 31-Dec-14 | +2% | +1% | +7% |
| Mumbai | 103 | -3% | 31-Dec-14 | +0% | -5% | not available |
| Singapore | 125 | 0% | 31-Mar-15 | +0% | -1% | +7% |
Retail Capital Value
| City | Price Index (Jan-06=100) | vs end-12 | Last Update | QoQ Change | Rental Yield (%) | Cost of Carry (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 324 | 13% | 31-Dec-14 | +0% | 2% | 5% |
| Hong Kong | not available | not available | not available | not available | not available | not available |
Conclusion
The Asia property market shows mixed trends across different regions, with notable activity in Hong Kong and Japan. While some cities in China and Singapore experienced declines in transaction volumes, others saw increases. The commercial property market, particularly in Hong Kong and Japan, reflects varying levels of rental performance and vacancy rates. Investors should consider these market dynamics and upcoming events when making investment decisions.
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