20220818-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_4页_870kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from CMBI Fixed Income Department, providing insights into the performance of various fixed income instruments and market conditions in the context of China and global markets. It includes market analysis, macroeconomic news, new issues, and analyst comments.

Market Performance Overview

Morning Market Conditions

Markets showed a calming trend with some buying flows into Investment Grade (IG) and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
High Yield (HY) space was under pressure, with a decline of 0.5–1 points due to COGARD's profit warning and credit rating downgrade.
Asset Management Companies (AMCs) continued their downside trend.

Key Instruments Performance

Chinese Property Sector: Overall decline, with LNGFOR/CIFIHG/VNKRLE down 1–3 points.
COGARD: Down ~4 points yesterday and 0.5–2 points today after the profit warning and rating downgrade.
LENOVO 3.375 01/24/24: Fluctuated slightly, down 0.25 points.
GRWALL: Marked 50c lower.
AT1s: Barely moved, closed 0.125–0.25 points under RM buying.
Big Five State Bank Names: Offers seen at low-4% yield.
TMT Sector: Continued street selling.
Macau Gaming Sector: Small selling in WYNMAC, STCITY underperformed.
Ex-China HY: Felt heavier on the day.
AZUPOE 24: Stuck at 91–92 level, 6–7 points below previous prices.
Top Performers:
- GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/23: +6.1 points
- GRNLGR 5 3/4 09/26/22: +5.3 points
- EAGRUY 7 1/2 05/01/25: +4.5 points
- SINOCE 5.95 02/04/27: +4.0 points
- GEMDAL 4.95 08/12/24: +4.0 points
Top Underperformers:
- COGARD 4.2 02/06/26: -4.3 points
- COGARD 3 1/8 10/22/25: -4.1 points
- COGARD 5 5/8 12/15/26: -4.1 points
- COGARD 6 1/2 04/08/24: -3.8 points
- CIFIHG 6.55 03/28/24: -3.6 points

Macro News Recap

U.S. Stock Indexes: Declined on Wednesday after consecutive gains. The S&P 500 (-0.72%), Dow (-0.5%), and Nasdaq (-1.17%) closed at low levels.
FOMC Minutes: Indicated that future rate hikes depend on incoming data and the pace may slow if inflation is alleviated.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Rose significantly, with yields at 3.28% (2yr), 3.04% (5yr), 2.89% (10yr), and 3.15% (30yr).

New Issues and Pipeline

Onshore New Issues (Priced)

Xi'an Weiyang Urban Construction Group: Issued USD74.5 million in 3-year bonds with a 5.1% coupon and 5.1% yield. Issue rating: Not disclosed.

Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

No new issues in the pipeline today.

Analyst Comments

LGFV/SOE Perp Space: Sentiment remained stable, with cross-border flows driving buying, especially for 2y LGFVs and long-dated SOE perps.
Valuations: Edged further richer.
Offshore AM Selling: Increased from both Chinese and non-Chinese accounts, particularly in low-yield, callable perps.
High-Beta Names: Some offshore investors started offloading them at low-90s.
Quality Names: Remained stable, with supportive bids.

Key Market Events and Company Updates

COGARD: Profit warning and credit rating downgrade led to ~4 points decline.
EVERRE: Reports suggest Evergrande New Energy Vehicle could be acquired by an automaker, possibly led by local government.
FTHDGR: Fantasia proposed a preliminary offshore debt restructuring plan, offering up to 60% haircut on principal.
LENOVO: Plans to partially repurchase USD450 million of LENOVO 3.375 01/24/24 using proceeds from a USD675 million CB with 2.50% coupon and due 2029.
MCRLNH: Failed to make payment for 17XinhualiankongMTN001 extendable notes, with maturity advanced to 9 August.
PWRLNG: Extended RMB600 million private domestic notes for one year during the grace period.
ROADKG: Expected HKD80–90 million profit for 1H22, a 86.8% yoy drop, due to RMB depreciation. Also redeemed USD22 million of 7.875% notes due 2023.
SECGRP: Moody's downgraded Shanghai Electric Group to Baa3 from Baa2.
SHIMAO: Shareholders approved RMB860.85 million funding guarantees to subsidiaries.
SUNKWP: Expected RMB120–180 million loss for 1H22 due to revenue decline.
TENCNT: Reported RMB134.0 billion revenue and RMB28.1 billion profit for 2Q22, down 3% and 17% yoy, respectively.

Important Disclosures

Investment Risks: All securities carry risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
No Personal Advice: CMBIS does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
Use of Information: The report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities.
Liability Disclaimer: CMBIS and its affiliates are not liable for any losses or damages arising from reliance on the report.
Conflicts of Interest: CMBIS may have investment banking relationships with companies mentioned, which could affect the report's objectivity.

Author Certification

The author certifies that all views in the report reflect personal opinions.
Confirms no compensation was tied to the views expressed.
Declines to have traded or dealt in the securities mentioned within 30 days prior to the report's release.

Distribution Restrictions

UK: Only for persons within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a)–(d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005.
US: Only for major US institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Singapore: Distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG), an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations. Not for non-accredited investors unless otherwise stated.