20240208-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页

报告摘要

LLDPE Summary

Macroeconomic: Crude oil slightly rebounded due to unfulfilled Fed interest rate cut expectation; official PMI was 49.2%, close to previous 49.0%; export data increased by 23% year-over-year. Overall macro conditions neutral.
Supply and Demand: Cost support from declining oil-based production margins; low supply rates and steady imports; weak demand approaching Spring festival, especially for agro薄膜; inventory levels neutral high. Fundamentals overall neutral.
Indicators: Basis (LLDPE2405) at +15 points, neutral; inventory neutral; price chart showing 20-day MA flat with close above it, slightly bullish; net long positions in主力合约.
Expectation: Volatile to the weaker side, influenced by crude rebound and cost support, but weak downstream demand and neutral inventory. Expected today's price movement to be震荡.

PP Summary

Macroeconomic: Similar to LLDPE; crude oil slightly rebounded; PMI and export data same as LLDPE, fundamentals neutral.
Supply and Demand: Cost support from oil margin decline; expected supply reduction from planned restarts like浙江石化, but demand weak post-Spring holiday. Inventory neutral high.
Indicators: Basis (PP2405) at +34 points, neutral; inventory neutral; price chart similar to LLDPE with 20-day MA flat and close above it, slightly bullish; net long positions.
Expectation: Volatile to the weaker side, with support from cost and crude rebound, but weak demand. Expected today's price movement to be震荡.

Overall Market Outlook

Both LLDPE and PP are expected to see震荡走势 due to balanced factors: cost support from oil price and margin conditions, but under pressure from weak demand and macro uncertainties like Fed expectations. Supply is constrained, with inventory neutral, but demand weakening near festive periods. Key risks include crude oil volatility. Historical data from 2018-2024 shows steady growth in capacity and consumption for both PE and PP.