期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1983_40页_925kb

NBER Reporter Summary: The Government Budget and the Private Economy

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1983 highlights a major research project on the impact of the government budget on the private economy. This project aims to provide objective, quantitative analysis of how government spending, taxation, and debt affect private economic behavior and outcomes. The study is particularly relevant given the significant growth of the government budget over the past three decades, which now controls more than one-third of national income—double its share in 1950. The research seeks to understand the broader economic consequences of this expansion, including effects on work effort, savings, investment, and productivity.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. The Impact of Taxation

• Taxation significantly influences private behavior, including work effort, saving, and risk-taking.
• High marginal tax rates are seen as a disincentive to economic activity.
• There is a lack of comprehensive quantitative data on the effects of tax changes.
• Researchers are examining how tax rules affect labor supply, savings, and investment.
• The NBER is analyzing the impact of tax policy on incentives and the overall economy.

2. The Growth of Government Spending

• The most rapid growth in government spending has occurred in transfer programs, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment compensation.
• These programs have incentive effects on work effort, health care spending, and other economic variables.
• The structure of these programs has not changed significantly since their creation in the 1930s, despite major economic shifts.
• The project includes an analysis of the sources and uses of funds in state and local governments, particularly in light of federal matching funds.

3. Transfer Programs

• Transfer payments have grown substantially and are a key focus of the study.
• The project aims to quantify the adverse incentives created by these programs and assess alternative policy changes.
• Specific questions include the impact of Social Security benefit changes on retirement, savings, and payroll tax receipts.
• The NBER has organized conferences to explore these issues, such as the one on "Incentive Effects of Government Spending."

4. Public Sector Payrolls

• Government spending has been accompanied by a rise in public employment at all levels.
• Public sector wages and benefits often exceed those in the private sector.
• The growth of public sector unions is linked to increased government spending.
• Research is being conducted on the compensation of public sector employees and the role of unions in this growth.

5. Major Spending Areas

• The project examines specific areas of government spending—health care, housing, and education—that have seen substantial growth.
• These areas are expected to have a major impact on the private economy.
• The analysis aims to draw general lessons about the effects of government spending and the broader budgetary system.

6. State and Local Budgets

• State and local governments are studied separately, focusing on their diversity and ability to respond to local preferences.
• Federal policies, such as matching funds, have influenced state and local spending patterns.
• Researchers are analyzing budget sizes, financing sources, and the impact of federal policy on state and local budgets.

7. Government Debt and Deficits

• The project includes research on government debt and deficits, particularly their treatment as wealth, impact on international balance of payments, and risk assessment.
• The NBER is exploring how government debt affects the private sector and economic stability.

Research Summaries

An Analysis of Private Pensions

• Jeremy I. Bulow examines the valuation of pension benefits under different accounting methods.
• Two main types of pension plans are analyzed: defined contribution and defined benefit.
• Defined contribution plans are treated similarly to salary, with future contributions expensed only when legally accrued.
• Defined benefit plans use "accrued benefit" or "projected benefit" methods, with the former being more accurate in reflecting legal liabilities.
• Challenges arise with early retirement benefits, which can create sudden increases in pension value and complicate valuation.

Examining Taxes on Capital

• Don Fullerton develops a general equilibrium model to evaluate the incidence and efficiency of tax reforms.
• The model includes 18 producers, 12 consumer groups, and accounts for government spending, savings, investment, and international trade.
• It is used to assess the welfare implications of tax reforms, particularly those aimed at equalizing tax rates across industries.
• The model also explores the Laffer curve, savings elasticity, and the impact of tax policy on labor and capital markets.

Conclusion

The NBER project on the government budget and the private economy is a comprehensive effort to understand the economic consequences of government spending and taxation. By focusing on empirical research, the project aims to provide policy-relevant insights into the effects of government budget changes on private economic activity. The findings from this research will be published in the NBER Working Papers series and will be further detailed in future issues of the Reporter.