2018海运综述（英文版）-12mb

Summary of Review of Maritime Transport 2018

Core Content

The Review of Maritime Transport 2018 is a comprehensive report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), providing an overview of global maritime trade, fleet structure, freight rates, port operations, legal issues, and future outlook. The report covers data and events from January 2017 to June 2018 and highlights key trends and challenges in the maritime sector.

Main Trends and Developments

1. International Seaborne Trade

• Global seaborne trade grew by 4% in 2017, the fastest growth in five years, supported by a strong global economy.
• Total trade volume reached 10.7 billion tons, with dry bulk commodities accounting for nearly half of the increase.
• Containerized trade grew by 6.4% in 2017, recovering from historical lows, while dry bulk cargo increased by 4.0% and crude oil shipments grew by 2.4%.
• The shift in crude oil trade patterns saw a reduced concentration on Western Asia, with increased flows from the Atlantic basin to Asia.
• Refined petroleum products and gas saw combined growth of 3.9%, driven by rising global refining capacity and the appeal of cleaner energy.

2. World Fleet Structure and Ownership

• The global merchant fleet grew by 3.3% in 2017, with new deliveries slightly increasing and demolition activity decreasing except in the tanker market.
• Germany remained the largest container ship-owning country, while Canada, China, and Greece expanded their market shares.
• The Marshall Islands became the second-largest ship registration flag after Panama.
• Over 90% of shipbuilding activity occurred in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea, while 79% of ship demolitions were in South Asia, particularly Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.

3. Freight Rates and Costs

• Freight rates improved significantly in 2017, except for the tanker market, due to stronger demand and better market conditions.
• Container freight rates increased, with the industry’s profits reaching about $7 billion by the end of 2017.
• CMA CGM, Maersk Line, and Hapag-Lloyd recorded the highest earnings in the container shipping industry.
• The tanker market remained under pressure due to excess supply and weak demand, leading to lower freight rates.

4. Ports and Port Operations

• Global port activity and cargo handling expanded rapidly in 2017, with the top 20 ports handling 9.3 billion tons, up from 8.9 billion tons in 2016.
• Container port throughput reached 752.2 million TEUs globally in 2017, with Shanghai handling 42.3 million TEUs.
• The outlook for port activity is positive, driven by economic growth and infrastructure development, but downside risks such as trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions may affect this trend.
• Liner shipping alliances and vessel upsizing have increased the bargaining power of shipping lines over ports, intensifying competition among ports for service frequency and efficiency.

5. Legal and Regulatory Developments

• The International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted an initial strategy in April 2018 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008.
• Amendments to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973/1978, require mandatory data collection on fuel oil consumption for ships of 5,000 gross tons and above, starting from 1 January 2019.
• A global limit of 0.5% sulphur in fuel oil will come into effect on 1 January 2020, with significant implications for human health and the environment.
• The report emphasizes the need for market-based measures, capacity-building, and technical cooperation to support the implementation of GHG reduction strategies.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The report includes data from 2015 to 2018 and highlights the role of technological advances in improving transparency and efficiency in maritime markets.
• Digitalization: Digitalization, e-commerce, and the Belt and Road Initiative are seen as game-changing trends that could enhance global seaborne trade, though their full impact is still being assessed.
• Gender Equality: The report notes the lack of gender equality in the maritime industry, emphasizing the need for improvement in workforce diversity.
• Port Performance: UNCTAD developed a port performance scorecard to help ports and terminals improve their strategic planning and investment decisions.
• Interoperability and Cybersecurity: The report underscores the importance of establishing interoperability in digital systems and ensuring cybersecurity, especially with the implementation of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Outlook and Policy Considerations

• The outlook for seaborne trade is positive, with UNCTAD projecting a 4% growth in 2018 and a 3.8% compound annual growth rate between 2018 and 2023.
• Containerized and dry bulk trade are expected to grow faster than tanker trade.
• Digitalization and e-commerce offer significant opportunities for innovation and efficiency in the maritime sector.
• The maritime industry faces challenges related to trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for market concentration.
• Regulatory developments, including GHG emissions reduction and air pollution control, are shaping the future of the sector, with a focus on sustainable practices and environmental performance.

Conclusion

The Review of Maritime Transport 2018 provides a detailed analysis of the current state and future direction of the global maritime transport industry. It highlights the importance of addressing geopolitical, economic, and regulatory challenges while leveraging technological innovations and market-based measures to ensure sustainable growth and improved performance in the sector.