联合国-《全球海运发展评述报告》2019（英文）-2019.10-129页_6mb

Summary of Review of Maritime Transport 2019

Core Content

The Review of Maritime Transport 2019 is a comprehensive analysis of global maritime trade, transport services, infrastructure, performance indicators, legal issues, and regulatory developments. It covers data and events from January 2018 to June 2019 and highlights the challenges and opportunities facing the maritime industry in the context of global economic shifts, environmental concerns, and evolving regulatory frameworks.

Main Trends and Developments

1. International Maritime Trade and Port Traffic

• Global Maritime Trade Growth: Slowed in 2018 compared to 2017, growing at 2.7% versus 4.1%, reflecting broader economic and trade slowdowns.
• Container Trade: Global container port throughput growth decelerated to 4.7% in 2018, down from 6.7% in 2017.
• Key Risks: Trade tensions, especially between China and the U.S., Brexit, China's economic transition, geopolitical instability, and supply-side disruptions (e.g., oil sector) contributed to the slowdown.
• China's Role: China remains a major player in maritime trade, with its imports accounting for one-fourth of global maritime trade. Its economic shift from manufacturing to consumer-led growth affects global dry bulk and container trade.
• Forecast: Expected average annual growth of 3.5% in international maritime trade from 2019–2024, driven by containerized, dry bulk, and gas trade.

2. Maritime Transport Services and Infrastructure Supply

• World Fleet Growth: The global fleet grew by 2.61% in early 2019, the slowest growth since the 2000s, with most segments experiencing oversupply.
• Shipbuilding Trends: China, Japan, and South Korea dominated global shipbuilding, accounting for 90% of all activity in 2018. Bulk carriers had the highest share of newbuildings, followed by oil tankers, container ships, and gas carriers.
• Demolition Activity: Oil tankers from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Turkey accounted for most of the tonnage sold for demolition in 2018.
• Container Shipping: The top 10 container shipping lines captured 90% of the market in 2019, up from 68% in 2014. Deployed capacity on major East-West routes increased significantly.
• Port Infrastructure Investment: There was a notable increase in container terminal operations in Australia, raising concerns about competition. Port authorities are increasingly focusing on inland logistics and port performance indicators.

3. Performance Indicators

• Port Turnaround Times: Performance indicators such as port turnaround times and cargo handling efficiency were analyzed, showing variations across regions and vessel types.
• Environmental Indicators: Environmental metrics, including fuel consumption and emissions, were tracked. The IMO 2020 sulphur cap regulation (from 3.50% to 0.50%) was expected to have significant implications for the industry.
• Liner Shipping Connectivity: The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index showed improvements in some regions, but highlighted the uneven distribution of connectivity across global ports.

4. Legal Issues and Regulatory Developments

• Environmental Regulations: The IMO 2020 sulphur cap and related amendments to MARPOL 73/78 are set to impact fuel costs, vessel availability, and compliance practices.
• Ballast Water Management: The 2004 Ballast Water Convention, now in force, is being implemented to prevent invasive species and ship-source pollution.
• Hazardous Substances Convention: The 1996 Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances, as amended by the 2010 Protocol, has not yet entered into force, despite growing concerns about chemical trade.
• Climate and Sustainable Development: The report emphasizes the interlinkages between maritime transport, climate change, and sustainable development, noting the role of ocean science in supporting coastal protection and climate resilience.

Key Information and Insights

• Trade Tensions: China-U.S. trade tensions, including tariffs, significantly impacted maritime trade, particularly in containerized and dry bulk sectors.
• China's Economic Transition: A shift from investment and manufacturing to consumer spending and services is affecting China's import demand, particularly for iron ore and coal.
• Oversupply of Vessels: The global shipping industry faces oversupply in most segments, with the exception of gas carriers, which saw strong growth due to LNG expansion.
• Regulatory Impact: The IMO 2020 sulphur cap is expected to increase operating costs and reduce vessel availability, potentially affecting freight rates and trade flows.
• Port Performance: Port efficiency, turnaround times, and the role of port infrastructure in supporting maritime trade were key focus areas. The Train for Trade Port Management Programme highlighted lessons on improving port operations.
• Technology and Services: The maritime sector is increasingly integrating technology and services into logistics and value chains, with carriers exploring freight integration and inland operations.

Policy Considerations

• Competition Monitoring: National competition authorities and port authorities should monitor container terminal concessions and consider market integration when granting them.
• Environmental Sustainability: The maritime industry is under pressure to adopt cleaner fuels, energy-efficient engines, and better hydrodynamics to meet environmental standards.
• Global Cooperation: The report underscores the need for international cooperation to address climate change, environmental sustainability, and regulatory harmonization.
• Support for Developing Countries: Developing countries are encouraged to participate in international conventions and standards to ensure fair trade practices and environmental compliance.

Conclusion

The maritime industry is navigating a period of slower growth, heightened uncertainty, and increasing regulatory pressures. While trade tensions and economic shifts pose significant risks, there are also opportunities for growth through initiatives like the Belt and Road, new trade agreements, and the global energy transition. The industry is adapting by focusing on sustainability, technology, and vertical integration, with a growing emphasis on environmental compliance and efficient port operations.