联合国-《全球海运发展评述报告》2019（英文）129页_7mb

Summary of the Review of Maritime Transport 2019

Core Content

The Review of Maritime Transport 2019 provides an in-depth analysis of global maritime trade, transport services, infrastructure, performance indicators, legal issues, and environmental sustainability trends. It is published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and covers data and events from January 2018 to June 2019. The report highlights the challenges and opportunities in the maritime sector, particularly in the context of global economic shifts, trade tensions, and environmental regulations.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. Global Maritime Trade and Port Traffic

• Trade Growth: International maritime trade expanded at a slower pace in 2018 (2.7%) compared to 2017 (4.1%).
• Container Trade: Container port throughput growth decelerated to 4.7% in 2018, down from 6.7% in 2017.
• Downside Risks: Trade tensions, Brexit, China's economic transition, and supply-side disruptions (e.g., oil sector) contributed to the slowdown.
• Country-Specific Factors: Reactions in emerging economies, weakness in industrial sectors, and reduced import demand in both developed and developing countries affected growth.
• Projected Growth: UNCTAD forecasts an average annual growth rate of 3.5% for maritime trade between 2019 and 2024, driven by container, dry bulk, and gas trade.

2. Maritime Transport Services and Infrastructure Supply

• Fleet Growth: The global fleet grew by 2.61% in 2019, the slowest growth of the decade.
• Segment Performance:
  • Gas Carriers: Experienced the highest growth (7.25%) due to expansion in the LNG sector.
  • Container Fleet: Continued to grow (5%) despite overall slow growth.
  • Oil Tankers and Dry Bulk Carriers: Registered stable or declining growth.
• Shipbuilding Trends:
  • China, Japan, and South Korea dominated global shipbuilding, accounting for 90% of all activity in 2018.
  • Container ships and gas carriers saw increased newbuilding activity, while oil tankers and dry bulk carriers experienced a decline.
• Demolition: Most of the tonnage sold for demolition in 2018 was from oil tankers in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Turkey.
• Port Infrastructure: There is a growing focus on inland logistics and port services, with investments in infrastructure to enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

3. Performance Indicators

• Port Turnaround Times: Vary significantly by region and vessel type, with data showing differences in efficiency and performance.
• Liner Shipping Connectivity: The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index highlights the importance of connectivity in trade, with notable changes in the top 10 economies and ports in Western Africa and the Pacific Islands.
• Environmental Indicators: The report emphasizes the impact of environmental regulations, particularly the IMO 2020 sulphur cap, which reduced fuel sulphur content from 3.50% to 0.50%.
• Sustainability Efforts: The maritime industry is increasingly adopting cleaner fuels, energy-efficient engines, and better hydrodynamics. Certification schemes and investments in green technologies are on the rise.

4. Legal and Regulatory Developments

• IMO 2020 Regulation: Enforced on 1 January 2020, this regulation imposes stricter sulphur fuel limits, increasing operating costs and affecting vessel availability.
• Ballast Water Management: The 2004 Convention for the Control and Management of Ships' Ballast Water and Sediments entered into force in 2017, aiming to prevent invasive alien species.
• Hazardous Substances Convention: The 1996 Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea, as amended by the 2010 Protocol, has not yet entered into force but is considered important for regulatory completeness.
• Regulatory Challenges: Compliance with environmental and safety regulations is becoming more complex and costly, influencing market dynamics and operations.

Key Environmental and Sustainability Considerations

• Environmental Regulations: The maritime industry is under increasing pressure to adopt cleaner and more energy-efficient practices.
• Green Initiatives: The report highlights the role of environmental sustainability in shaping future maritime transport, including the development of low-carbon fuels and the adoption of voluntary standards.
• Climate Change: The report connects maritime activities to broader climate and sustainable development goals, emphasizing the importance of ocean science in climate risk assessment and coastal management.
• Global Agreements: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Paris Agreement, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction are key drivers of policy and regulatory development.

Outlook and Policy Considerations

• New Normal: The maritime sector is entering a new normal, characterized by regionalized trade flows, economic rebalancing in China, and increased reliance on technology and services.
• Supply Chain Reshaping: Trade tensions and regulatory changes are reshaping global supply chains, with some manufacturing moving from China to other regions.
• Market Consolidation: The container shipping industry has seen significant consolidation, with the top 10 shipping lines capturing 90% of the market share in 2019.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Monitor market integration and competition when granting port concessions.
  • Encourage adoption of environmental regulations and green technologies.
  • Promote regional and bilateral trade agreements to support maritime trade growth.
  • Support the ratification of international legal instruments, such as the Hazardous Substances Convention, to address regulatory gaps.

Conclusion

The Review of Maritime Transport 2019 underscores the evolving nature of the maritime sector, shaped by economic, environmental, and regulatory factors. It calls for continued adaptation and innovation in response to global trade shifts, environmental pressures, and the need for sustainable development. The report serves as a critical reference for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers seeking to understand the dynamics and future direction of maritime transport.