20170516-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2017.05.17_12页_1mb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary (May 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an outlook for the U.S. and Mexican sugar markets for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 fiscal years, focusing on production, imports, domestic deliveries, and ending stocks. It outlines the economic implications of these changes, particularly in relation to supply and demand dynamics.

U.S. Sugar Market Outlook (2016/17 and 2017/18)

2016/17 Market Outlook

• Total U.S. Sugar Supplies: Estimated at 13.957 million STRV, a 65,000-STRV reduction from the previous month.
• Domestic Production: Projected to be 8.774 million STRV, a 67,000-STRV decrease from the April estimate.
  • Beet Sugar Production: 4.932 million STRV, a 64,000-STRV decrease from the April projection, due to lower sucrose extraction rates.
  • Cane Sugar Production: 3.842 million STRV, a 3,000-STRV decrease from the previous month.
• Imports: Estimated at 3.130 million STRV, with a 3,000-STRV increase from the previous month due to shipments from Costa Rica and Honduras.
• Total Use: Estimated at 12.480 million STRV, with a 100,000-STRV increase from the previous month due to strong beet processor deliveries.
• Ending Stocks: Estimated at 1.477 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.8 percent, down from 13.3 percent.

2017/18 Market Outlook

• Total U.S. Sugar Supplies: Projected to be 14.036 million STRV, a 0.6-percent increase from the previous year.
• Domestic Production: Expected to fall slightly to 8.700 million STRV, a 0.8-percent decline from 2016/17.
  • Beet Sugar Production: Projected at 4.950 million STRV, a 0.4-percent increase from the previous year.
  • Cane Sugar Production: Projected at 3.750 million STRV, a 2.4-percent decline from the current estimate.
    • Florida and Louisiana production will revert to historical averages, while Hawaii will have no production due to the closure of its last cane processor.
• Imports: Projected to be 3.858 million STRV, an 18.9-percent increase from the previous year.
  • Quota Programs: Projected at 1.373 million STRV, which includes WTO minimums and FTAs.
  • Other Programs: Projected at 175,000 STRV, a 200,000-STRV decrease from the previous year.
• Domestic Deliveries: Projected at 12.477 million STRV, with a 1.0-percent increase in food and beverage use.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 1.534 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.3 percent.

Mexico Sugar Market Outlook (2016/17 and 2017/18)

2016/17 Market Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Estimated at 7.298 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Domestic Production: Estimated at 6.186 million MT, with no change from the previous month.
• Imports: Projected at 75,000 MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Total Use: Estimated at 5,956,000 MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 30.1 percent.
• Exports: Estimated at 1.105 million MT, a 59,000-MT decrease from the previous month.
  • Exports to the U.S.: Remain at 995,000 MT.
  • IMMEX Program Deliveries: Raised to 390,000 MT, partially offset by a 50,000-MT decline in miscellaneous deliveries.
• Ending Stocks: Estimated at 1.342 million MT, a 49,000-MT increase from the April projection.

2017/18 Market Outlook

• Total Sugar Supplies: Projected at 7.642 million MT, a 4.7-percent increase from 2016/17.
• Domestic Production: Projected at 6.225 million MT, a 0.6-percent increase from the current estimate.
• Domestic Deliveries: Projected at 4.528 million MT, a 1.5-percent increase from 2016/17.
• Exports: Projected to be 1.994 million MT, an 80.5-percent increase compared with the previous year.
  • Exports to the U.S.: Projected at 1.969 million MT, nearly double the 2016/17 estimate.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 731,000 MT, resulting in a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 16.1 percent, indicating a tight market.

Key Information

• U.S. Production Trends:
  • Beet sugar production is expected to remain relatively stable due to increased yield per acre, despite a reduced planted area.
  • Cane sugar production is projected to decline, especially in Florida and Louisiana, due to returning to historical average yields.
  • Hawaii will not contribute to cane sugar production in 2017/18 due to the closure of its last cane processor.
• U.S. Import Trends:
  • Imports under quota programs are expected to decrease slightly due to a projected shortfall in the raw TRQ.
  • Non-program imports are expected to increase, driven by increased demand from the U.S. market.
• U.S. Domestic Deliveries:
  • Deliveries for food and beverage use are expected to increase slightly, reflecting strong beet processor activity.
  • Cane refiner deliveries are expected to lag behind the previous year, but overall food and beverage use is projected to rise.
• Mexico Production Trends:
  • Mexico's sugar production is expected to increase slightly, with a focus on sugarcane yields and recovery rates.
  • The IMMEX program is expected to maintain its current level of deliveries, drawing primarily from domestic processors.
• Mexico Export Trends:
  • Exports to the U.S. are projected to nearly double due to the terms of the suspension agreements.
  • The increased export access is expected to lead to a decline in exports to other countries.
• Market Tightness:
  • Mexico's sugar market is expected to be tight in 2017/18, with a lower stocks-to-consumption ratio.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is expected to see a slight increase in supplies and use for 2017/18, with a decrease in domestic production and a rise in imports. Mexico's sugar market is anticipated to be tighter in 2017/18 due to increased export prospects to the U.S., leading to a lower stocks-to-consumption ratio. The outlook reflects a complex interplay between production levels, import dynamics, and domestic demand, with significant implications for both markets.