20151215-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2015.12.15_11页_996kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary (December 2015)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and Mexican sugar production, imports, exports, and domestic deliveries for the 2015/16 fiscal year (October–September). It highlights trends in production, consumption, and trade dynamics, including the impact of weather conditions and international agreements.

U.S. Sugar Production and Deliveries

Projected Production (2015/16)

• Total U.S. sugar production: 8.991 million STRV (up 181,000 STRV from November).
• Beet sugar: 5.158 million STRV (up 83,000 STRV from November), setting a new fiscal year record.
• Cane sugar: 3.833 million STRV (up 98,000 STRV from November), driven by increased production in Florida (up 98,000 STRV) and a slight decline in Louisiana (down 35,000 STRV).
  • Florida: 2.073 million STRV (up 98,000 STRV), the highest since 2003/04.
  • Louisiana: 1.465 million STRV (down 35,000 STRV), affected by wet weather.
  • Texas: 130,000 STRV (unchanged).
  • Hawaii: 165,000 STRV (unchanged).

Projected Deliveries (2015/16)

• Total domestic deliveries: 12.090 million STRV (up 170,000 STRV from November).
• Food and beverage deliveries: Increased in the final quarter of 2014/15, consistent with long-term trends.
• DCI (Direct Consumption Imports): Accounted for 12.9% of total deliveries in Q3 2015, the highest since DCI became prominent in the market.

Imports and Exports

• Total imports (2015/16): 3.192 million STRV (down 207,000 STRV from November).
• Imports under quota: 1.529 million STRV (up 1,000 STRV due to Panama's free-trade agreement).
• Imports from Mexico: 1.333 million STRV (down 208,000 STRV), influenced by the U.S. Needs calculation.
• Exports (2015/16): 200,000 STRV (unchanged), with exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico at 1.140 million STRV.

Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Ratio

• Ending stocks (2015/16): 1.659 million STRV (down 196,000 STRV from November).
• Stocks-to-use ratio: 13.5% (down from 15.3% in November), influenced by the updated U.S. Needs calculation.

Mexican Sugar Production and Deliveries

Projected Production (2015/16)

• Total sugar production: 6.056 million MT (unchanged from November), with the cane milling season underway.
• IMMEX program: Deliveries are expected to increase, reflecting complete 2014/15 data.

Projected Deliveries (2015/16)

• Total domestic deliveries: 4.725 million MT (up 13,000 MT from November).
• Domestic human consumption: 4.388 million MT (unchanged).
• IMMEX deliveries: 337,000 MT (unchanged), aligned with previous year's estimate.

Imports and Exports

• Total imports (2015/16): 155,000 MT (up from 128,000 MT in 2014/15).
• Sugar exports (2015/16): 1.150 million MT (down 178,000 MT from November), with 1.140 million MT to the U.S.
• Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico: 1.140 million MT (down 15,000 MT from 2014/15).

Key Factors Influencing Projections

• Weather Conditions:
  • Warm temperatures in the U.S. sugarbeet production regions (especially in the Upper Midwest) have impacted beet storage and sugar content, leading to potential reductions in sugar extraction.
  • In Florida, favorable growing conditions (dry summer, hot fall) have boosted cane sugar production.
• Trade Agreements:
  • The "Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigation on Sugar From Mexico" (December 2014) has influenced U.S. Needs calculations, thereby affecting Mexican sugar exports to the U.S.
  • The Panama free-trade agreement has slightly increased U.S. quota imports.
• Data Adjustments:
  • Corrections in import data (e.g., from the Baltimore District) have led to reductions in Mexican imports to the U.S.
  • Adjustments in trade data have impacted the U.S. stocks-to-use ratio and Mexican supply estimates.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 U.S. sugar market is expected to see increased production and deliveries, primarily due to strong beet and Florida cane crops. However, reduced imports from Mexico and the influence of trade agreements have led to a lower projected stocks-to-use ratio. In Mexico, the 2015/16 season shows a shift in export dynamics and a rise in ending stocks, suggesting a more ample supply. Weather and trade policy remain critical variables for future outlooks.