20211116-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.11.16_21页_925kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: November 2021 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of U.S. and Mexican sugar production, supply, and use for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 crop years. It highlights the impact of weather conditions, trade policies, and production adjustments on sugar supply and demand dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Production:

  • 2020/21: Increased by 60,682 STRV to 5.092 million STRV due to higher-than-expected beet sugar production in August and September.
  • 2021/22: Projected at 9.332 million STRV, up 45,523 STRV from the previous month. This is the largest sugar production on record, surpassing the 2017/18 level of 9.293 million STRV.
    • Beet sugar: 5.413 million STRV, up 65,500 STRV from the October forecast.
    • Cane sugar: Reduced to 3.919 million STRV, down 20,021 STRV from the previous month. Louisiana's production is down due to lower yields and reduced sucrose recovery after Hurricane Ida.
      • Louisiana: 1.784 million STRV for 2021/22, a decline from 1.917 million STRV in 2020/21.
      • Florida: 2.005 million STRV for 2021/22, unchanged from the previous month.
      • Texas: 130,000 STRV for 2021/22, also unchanged.

• Imports:

  • 2020/21: Reduced by 57,000 STRV to 3.196 million STRV.
  • 2021/22: Increased by 45,000 STRV to 3.045 million STRV.
    • Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports: Up 25,000 STRV to 1.611 million STRV.
    • High-tier tariff imports: Up 25,000 STRV to 100,000 STRV.

• Use:

  • 2021/22: Unchanged at 12.305 million STRV.
  • 2020/21: Reduced by 90,000 STRV to 12.226 million STRV due to lower production and logistical challenges.

• Ending Stocks:

  • 2020/21: 1.728 million STRV, up 48,000 STRV from the previous month.
  • 2021/22: 1.765 million STRV, up 138,000 STRV from the previous month.
  • Stocks-to-use ratio:
    • 2020/21: 14.0 percent.
    • 2021/22: 14.3 percent, up 1.1 percentage points due to higher beginning stocks, production, and imports.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Production:

  • 2021/22: Projected at 5.98 million MT, up 39,000 MT from the previous month.
  • 2020/21: Unchanged at 5.98 million MT.

• Deliveries:

  • Both 2020/21 and 2021/22 show a decline in deliveries due to reduced total and per capita sugar consumption.

• Exports:

  • 2020/21: Marginally higher.
  • 2021/22: Increased by 99,000 MT.

• Ending Stocks:

  • 2020/21: Increased due to reduced demand.
  • 2021/22: Fractionally down due to higher use.

Key Information

• Weather Impact: Unseasonably wet and warm weather in late October and early November extended the growing season, leading to record-high beet sugar yields in some areas.
• Harvest Delays: Delays in Louisiana due to Hurricane Ida caused lower early production, which was partially shifted to the next crop year.
• Import Trends: The increase in high-tier tariff imports is attributed to the price differential between U.S. and world raw sugar, which remains above the import duty.
• TRQ Adjustments: The USDA extended the TRQ period and reallocated 29,442 MT of TRQ away from countries unable to fulfill allocations, contributing to the rise in imports.
• Scenario Analysis: Two scenarios (A and B) were presented for beet sugar production, projecting a range of 5.265 to 5.488 million STRV, with potential for lower output if storage conditions are poor.
• Deliveries: Food and beverage deliveries for 2021/22 are unchanged at 12.305 million STRV, aligned with population growth.

Conclusion

The report outlines a positive outlook for U.S. sugar supplies in 2021/22, with increased production and imports contributing to a higher stocks-to-use ratio. Mexico also shows a stable production trend, with some export growth. However, challenges such as weather-related delays, reduced cane sugar output in Louisiana, and the impact of trade policies continue to influence the outlook. The dynamic nature of production forecasts and the potential for lower sugar content due to weather conditions will be closely monitored in the coming months.