20210216-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.02.16_21页_755kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexico sugar and sweeteners market outlook for the 2020/21 fiscal year, based on the USDA's February 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). It highlights changes in production, imports, exports, and domestic use, with an emphasis on the impact of external factors such as weather and the pandemic.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Production Increase: U.S. sugar production for 2020/21 is projected to increase, driven by higher cane sugar output in Florida and Louisiana and improved beet sugar extraction rates.

  • Cane sugar production is up by 102,000 STRV to 4.265 million STRV.
  • Florida and Louisiana are expected to produce record cane sugar, while Texas production is slightly reduced.
  • Beet sugar production is raised by 54,000 STRV to 5.046 million STRV due to higher extraction rates.

• Imports Increase: Total imports for 2020/21 are forecast to rise by 60,000 STRV to 3.404 million STRV, primarily due to increased high-tier shipments.

• Deliveries Stable: Deliveries for 2020/21 remain unchanged at 12.2 million STRV, with a slight decrease in the first quarter compared to the previous year.

• Stocks Rise: Ending stocks are projected to increase by 216,000 STRV to 1.993 million STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.15 percent, up from 14.40 percent.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Production Unchanged: Mexico's sugar production for 2020/21 is forecast to remain at 5.95 million MT, with no change from the previous month's projection.

  • The decrease in production was mainly due to reduced sugarcane area and yields, as well as lower extraction rates.

• Exports Unchanged: Total exports are forecast to remain at 1.490 million MT, with exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico at 995,065 MT.

• Deliveries Unchanged: Deliveries for human use are unchanged at 4.073 million MT, and HFCS deliveries are also unchanged at 1.377 million MT.

• Ending Stocks Stable: Ending stocks are unchanged at 935,000 MT, consistent with the 2.5 months of consumption target used by domestic authorities.

Key Information

U.S. Supply and Use

• Total Supply: Increased by 216,000 STRV to 14.333 million STRV.
• Total Exports: Remain unchanged at 35,000 STRV.
• Deliveries for Domestic Use: Unchanged at 12.200 million STRV.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Increased to 16.15 percent.

Mexico Supply and Use

• Total Supply: Unchanged at 6,913,000 MT.
• Total Use: Unchanged at 5,978,000 MT.
• Ending Stocks: Unchanged at 935,000 MT.
• Stocks-to-Human Consumption: Unchanged at 23.0 percent.
• Stocks-to-Use: Unchanged at 15.6 percent.

Import Dynamics

• High-Duty Imports: Increased in July and August to over 70,000 STRV per month but declined in September and October.
• Tariff Rates: Raw sugar tariff is 15.4 cents per pound, refined sugar is 16.21 cents per pound.
• Import Strategy: The best option for the surplus sugar in bond is to import it at the over-quota duty rate.

Market Trends

• Deliveries Pace: First quarter deliveries account for about 24.1 percent of the total projected deliveries for 2020/21, slightly below the 10-year average of 24.6 percent.
• Impact of Pandemic: Deliveries were affected by the pandemic, with a significant drop in the second quarter but a recovery in the third quarter.
• Consumer Deliveries: Consumer-sized package deliveries surged in March 2020, reaching a record 239,356 STRV, but declined in April and stabilized by the end of the year.

Summary

The report outlines the increased production and import levels in the U.S. for the 2020/21 fiscal year, leading to higher supplies and ending stocks. Mexico's sugar outlook remains stable, with no significant changes in production or exports. Both countries experienced fluctuations in delivery patterns due to external factors like the pandemic and weather-related issues, but overall, the market is expected to remain in balance with consistent supply and use levels.