20210818-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.08.18_20页_568kb

Summary of the Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Report (August 2021)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar production, imports, exports, and consumption trends for the fiscal years 2020/21 and 2021/22. It includes forecasts, adjustments, and analysis of market conditions, highlighting the impact of weather, production delays, and trade agreements on the sugar industry.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Sugar Production:

  • U.S. beet sugar production for 2021/22 is projected at 5.078 million STRV, up from 4,987 thousand STRV in 2020/21 due to delayed harvests in the upper Midwest.
  • Cane sugar production for 2021/22 is slightly reduced in Texas, but overall U.S. cane sugar production remains unchanged at 4,171 thousand STRV.

• Imports:

  • Imports for 2020/21 increased to 3.177 million STRV, with significant contributions from the Philippines and non-program imports.
  • Imports for 2021/22 are unchanged at 3.136 million STRV.

• Exports:

  • Exports for 2020/21 increased slightly to 35,000 STRV, while exports for 2021/22 remain at 35,000 STRV.
  • The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2020/21 is 14.3%, slightly higher than the 13.6% for 2021/22.

• Deliveries:

  • Deliveries for food and beverage use in 2021/22 are unchanged from the July estimate.
  • October-June deliveries in 2021/22 are 8,955 thousand STRV, representing 73.9% of the full fiscal year projection, consistent with historical averages.

• Stocks:

  • U.S. sugar stocks as of June 30 are higher than last year but well down from 2018/19.
  • Beet sugar processors have stocks close to the 5-year average, while cane refiners have stocks at the low end of the 10-year range.

• Market Conditions:

  • The price spread between U.S. refined cane sugar (Northeast) and world refined sugar prices rose in July to 26.7 cents per pound, up from 24.9 cents per pound in June.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Production:

  • Mexico's 2020/21 sugar production is finalized at 5.715 million MT, slightly higher than the previous estimate.
  • The 2021/22 production forecast remains at 5.809 million MT.

• Exports:

  • Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico for 2020/21 decreased by 15,000 MT due to underperformance by a Mexican producer in meeting the 99.2 polarity target.
  • Exports to other countries increased by 6,000 MT.

• Imports:

  • Mexico's imports for 2020/21 are unchanged at 111 thousand MT, with no significant changes for 2021/22.

• Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 are slightly increased to 916 thousand MT, equivalent to 2.5 months of domestic consumption.

• Production Conditions:

  • The Mexican government reported 738,146 MT of low-polarity sugar production as of August 1, 2021.
  • Exports to the U.S. have totaled 572,162 MT by August 8, and 30,000 MT more is needed to meet the 602,000 MT target by September 30.

Key Information

• Beet Sugar Production:

  • The NASS August forecast for 2021/22 sugarbeet crop is 33.71 million short tons, with a yield of 29.7 short tons per acre.
  • Shrinkage during storage is estimated at 6.6%, reducing the amount of sugar sliced for processing.

• Cane Sugar Production:

  • Texas cane sugar production decreased by 5,000 STRV, while Florida and Louisiana had mixed trends.
  • Louisiana faced drought and freeze impacts, with slower crop development and lower yields.

• Crop Conditions:

  • In Louisiana, 8% excellent and 55% good ratings were reported as of August 15, 2021, slightly below the 5-year average.
  • NASS does not report conditions for Florida and Texas.

• Supply and Use:

  • The total supply for 2021/22 is 13.937 million STRV, with total use at 12.265 million STRV.
  • Deliveries for domestic use are unchanged at 12.230 million STRV.

Conclusion

The report highlights the relatively stable U.S. sugar production and the impact of weather conditions on beet and cane sugar yields. Mexico's sugar production is finalized, and the U.S. sugar market shows a slight decrease in ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2021/22, reflecting a slight improvement in supply and demand balance. Import and export trends are influenced by trade agreements and production targets, with particular emphasis on the 99.2 polarity requirement for exports to the U.S. and the imported beet sugar projections. Overall, the outlook indicates a cautiously optimistic scenario with a focus on managing supply and demand dynamics.