20210518-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.05.18_19页_737kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexico sugar and sweeteners markets for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 fiscal years, including production, imports, deliveries, and stocks. It highlights the impact of weather, market dynamics, and trade policies on supply and demand.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• 2021/22 Production:

  • Projected at a record high of 9.310 million short tons, raw value (STRV).
  • Beet sugar output is up 107,000 STRV due to a larger sugarbeet crop.
  • Cane sugar production is down 96,000 STRV, primarily due to reduced Florida output.
  • Florida cane sugar is forecast at 2.1 million STRV, up 2% from the recent 5-year average.
  • Louisiana and Texas cane sugar production is unchanged from the previous year but still above the 5-year average.
  • Sugarbeet planting progress in the top 4 producing states (Idaho, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota) is well ahead of the 10-year average, indicating potential for higher yields.

• Imports:

  • Projected at 2.652 million STRV, a decrease of 502,000 STRV from the revised 2020/21 figure.
  • Tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports are down 286,000 STRV to 1.387 million STRV, with the TRQ at minimum levels consistent with trade commitments.
  • High-tier imports are down 150,000 STRV to 50,000 STRV, returning to more normal levels.
  • Mexico imports are expected at 965,000 STRV for 2021/22.

• Deliveries:

  • Projected at 12.125 million STRV for 2021/22, unchanged from the current year.
  • October-March deliveries represent 48.3% of the total forecast for 2021/22, slightly below the 10-year average of 48.4%.
  • March deliveries are up from February but still below the recent 10-year average.

• Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 1.502 million STRV, a decrease of 303,000 STRV from the previous year.
  • The stocks-to-use ratio is expected at 12.25, down from 14.72 in 2020/21.

• Price Dynamics:

  • The spread between U.S. refined cane sugar prices (Northeast) and world prices remains steady at about 22 cents per pound.
  • Wholesale refined sugar prices rose slightly to 42.6 cents per pound in April.
  • The tariff for raw sugar is 15.4 cents per pound, while for refined sugar it is 16.21 cents per pound.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• 2021/22 Production:

  • Forecast at 5.809 million metric tons (MT), actual weight, a slight decrease from the revised 2020/21 estimate.
  • Cane yields are expected to be lower due to drought conditions and poor soil quality in some areas.
  • CONADESUCA has revised its production forecast downward, expecting lower area, yield, and extraction rate.

• Deliveries:

  • Projected at 5.809 million MT for 2021/22, continuing a trend of declining deliveries.
  • 2020/21 deliveries are down 75,000 MT from April to May, with a total of 4.378 million MT.
  • High-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption is also expected to decline.

• Imports:

  • Projected at 85,000 MT for 2021/22, a decrease of 20,000 MT from the previous year.
  • Imports for consumption are down to 21,000 MT.
  • Imports for sugar-containing product exports are unchanged at 69,000 MT.

• Stocks:

  • Ending stocks for 2020/21 and 2021/22 are set at 910,000 MT, equivalent to about 2.5 months of domestic consumption.
  • The stocks-to-human consumption ratio is 23.0%, while the stocks-to-use ratio is 15.4%.

• Exports:

  • Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico are projected at 875,000 MT for 2021/22, down from 890,000 MT in 2020/21.
  • Exports to other countries are expected to increase to 740,000 MT.

Key Information

• U.S. Production:

  • Beet sugar is the main driver of increased production in 2021/22.
  • Cane sugar is constrained by Florida's reduced output.
  • Deliveries remain relatively stable despite the impact of the pandemic.

• U.S. Imports:

  • Reduced due to lower TRQ allocations and high-tier imports.
  • The Specialty Sugar TRQ is not yet announced, affecting forecast accuracy.

• Mexico:

  • Production and deliveries are expected to be lower in 2021/22 due to environmental challenges.
  • Exports to the U.S. are slightly reduced, but exports to other countries are expected to increase.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Domestic prices for refined sugar are slightly above world prices, affecting import competitiveness.
  • Imports are influenced by trade agreements and the availability of TRQ allocations.

• Trends:

  • U.S. beet sugar production is expected to remain strong, with higher yields due to timely planting.
  • Cane sugar production in the U.S. is under pressure from reduced Florida output.
  • Mexico's sugarcane conditions and yields are improving but still below 2017/18 and 2018/19 levels.

Summary Table

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: U.S. sugar production is projected to be a record high in 2021/22.
• Figure 2: National beet sugar planting progress is well ahead of the 10-year average.
• Figure 3: Sugarbeet yields for 2021/22 are expected to be slightly higher than the recent 5-year average.
• Figure 4: Cumulative sugar extraction rate for 2020/21 is at the upper end of the historical range.
• Figure 5: U.S. deliveries have flattened out over the past 5 years.
• Figure 6: Deliveries in 2021 are down 6% from the first quarter of 2020.
• Figure 7: March deliveries are slightly below the recent 10-year average.
• Figure 8: Sugarcane refiners' melt is in line with the recent 10-year average.
• Figure 9: Raw sugar inventories held by refiners are up from last year.
• Figure 10: Sugarbeet processors' total sugar inventories are up from last year.
• Figure 11: U.S. and world refined sugar prices have remained steady at about 22 cents per pound.
• Figure 12: U.S. wholesale refined sugar prices rose slightly to 42.6 cents per pound.
• Figure 13: Mexico's cumulative sugar production is up from last year but still below 2017/18 and 2018/19 levels.
• Figure 14: Sugarcane yields in Mexico are ahead of last year but below 2017/18 and 2018/19.
• Figure 15: Sugar extraction rates are trending upward in Mexico.
• Figure 16: Standard sugar makes up 60% of Mexico's cumulative production as of May 8, 2021.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market is expected to see a record production in 2021/22, driven by beet sugar output, despite a reduction in cane sugar. Imports are forecast to decrease due to lower TRQ allocations and high-tier imports, leading to tighter supplies and lower ending stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline, reflecting reduced supply.

In Mexico, production and deliveries are expected to be lower in 2021/22 due to drought conditions and soil issues, while exports to the U.S. are slightly reduced. Imports are also expected to decrease, with ending stocks remaining around 2.5 months of consumption. The price spread between U.S. and world refined sugar prices remains stable, but domestic prices are slightly above world prices, affecting import competitiveness.