20180918-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2018.09.18_22页_672kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar and sweeteners market outlook for the 2018/19 crop year, based on the September WASDE report. It outlines changes in production, imports, exports, and domestic use, as well as the impact of trade agreements and market conditions on supply and demand dynamics.

U.S. Sugar Production Outlook

• Projected Sugar Production (2018/19): 9.328 million short tons, raw value (STRV), up 240,000 STRV from the previous month.
• Beet Sugar Production: Increased by 236,000 STRV due to a record yield forecast of 32.8 tons per acre by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
• Cane Sugar Production: Increased slightly by 4,000 STRV, mainly due to higher production in Louisiana (1.785 million STRV).
• Total Supply (2018/19): 14.177 million STRV, down 574,000 STRV from the August report due to lower carryover and imports.
• Total Use (2018/19): Unchanged at 12.490 million STRV.
• Ending Stocks (2018/19): Reduced to 1.687 million STRV, resulting in a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio.
• Domestic Deliveries (2018/19): Projected at 12.250 million STRV, a 1.2 percent increase from the 2017/18 estimate.

U.S. Sugar Imports Outlook

• Total Imports (2018/19): Reduced to 2.776 million STRV, down 783,000 STRV from the previous month.
• Mexico Shipments: Reduced by 813,000 STRV due to the terms of the suspension agreements.
• High-Duty Imports: Increased by 30,000 STRV, marginally offsetting the reduction and matching the 2017/18 estimate.
• Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) Imports: Unchanged at 1.539 million STRV.
• Other Program Imports: Increased to 350,000 STRV.
• Non-Program Imports: Reduced to 887,000 STRV.

U.S. Sugar Exports Outlook

• Total Exports (2018/19): Increased by 264,000 metric tons (MT), actual value (MT), to 2.740 million MT.
• Exports to Non-U.S. Destinations: Raised by 264,000 MT, contributing to higher stocks-to-consumption ratio.
• Exports to the U.S. and Puerto Rico: Reduced to 721,000 MT, due to the updated calculation of U.S. Needs.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Ending Stocks (2018/19): Projected at 1.461 million MT, up 453,000 MT from the previous month due to increased exports.
• Production (2018/19): Projected at 6.025 million MT, with a 6.0 percent increase from the 2017/18 estimate.
• Imports (2018/19): Reduced to 115,000 MT, with a 432,000 MT decrease in shipments to the U.S. and Puerto Rico.
• Exports to Non-U.S. Destinations: Increased by 264,000 MT to 274,000 MT, due to the FIMAE program.

Caloric Sweeteners Outlook

• Total Caloric Sweetener Deliveries (2017): 20.692 million short tons, dry basis, a small decline from 20.701 million tons in 2016.
• Per Capita Deliveries (2017): 127.1 pounds per person, down 0.8 percent from the previous year.
• Trends in Sweeteners:
  • Refined Sugar: Dominates the market, accounting for 85.7 percent of total per capita deliveries in 2017.
  • High-Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS): Continued to decline, contributing to the overall decrease in caloric sweetener consumption.
  • HFCS Production (2018): Continued to decline, with first-quarter production at 1.923 million short tons, down from 2.000 million in 2017.
  • HFCS Prices: Remained stable, with HFCS-42 at 24.75 cents per pound and HFCS-55 at 39.29 cents per pound.
  • Production Consolidation: Ingredion announced the closure of its Stockton, CA wet mill, further concentrating production capacity.

Key Market Factors

• Trade Agreements: The suspension agreements between the U.S. Department of Commerce and Mexico significantly impacted import levels.
• Weather Conditions: Favorable weather reduced the threat of Cercospora leaf spot, improving sucrose extraction rates.
• Market Trends: Per capita consumption of caloric sweeteners has been declining since 1999, with a slight moderation in recent years.
• Domestic Use: Domestic deliveries for food and beverage use are projected to increase slightly in 2018/19, aligning with historical trends.

Summary of Changes

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar production outlook for 2018/19 shows a modest increase, primarily driven by improved beet sugar yields. Imports are expected to decrease due to trade policy changes, while exports to non-U.S. destinations are projected to rise. Mexico's sugar market is expected to see an increase in ending stocks due to reduced shipments to the U.S. and increased exports. Caloric sweetener consumption, particularly HFCS, continues to decline, with refined sugar remaining the dominant sweetener in the U.S. market. The market is influenced by trade agreements, weather conditions, and evolving consumer preferences.