20201016-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2020.10.16_16页_458kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook on U.S. and Mexico sugar and sweeteners production, imports, deliveries, and ending stocks for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 fiscal years. It outlines the key trends and factors influencing the market, including production changes, import dynamics, and domestic consumption patterns.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Production and Imports

• 2019/20 Production: Cane sugar production was estimated at 3.835 million STRV, with beet sugar at 4.293 million STRV.
• 2020/21 Production: Cane sugar production is projected at 4.062 million STRV, down by 65,000 STRV due to early harvest in Louisiana. Beet sugar production is raised to 5.206 million STRV, up 41,000 STRV, driven by increased beet area and higher production in the Upper Midwest and Northwest regions.
• Imports: Total imports for 2020/21 are forecast at 3.120 million STRV, with a significant portion coming from the TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) and non-program imports. TRQ imports are increased by 207,000 STRV to 1.832 million STRV, while high-tier imports are expected to be lower in 2020/21 due to narrowing price spreads.

Deliveries and Stocks

• Deliveries for Domestic Use: Projected at 12.305 million STRV for 2020/21, showing a slight increase from the previous forecast.
• Ending Stocks: Estimated at 1.749 million STRV for 2020/21, up from 1.702 million STRV for 2019/20, due to higher imports and stronger supplies.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Estimated at 14.18% for 2020/21, up from 13.79% for 2019/20.

Regional Breakdown

• Florida: Sugarcane production is steady, with sugar production increasing slightly.
• Louisiana: Early harvest in 2019/20 boosted production, but this effect is partially offset in 2020/21.
• Texas: Sugarcane and sugar production remain relatively stable.
• Hawaii: No production in all years.
• Beet Sugar: Increased production in 2020/21 due to higher beet area, despite a revision to 2019/20 production.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

Production

• 2019/20 Production: Estimated at 5.278 million MT, with no change from the previous estimate.
• 2020/21 Production: Projected to rebound 14% to 6.0 million MT, slightly above the 5-year average but down 7% from 2018/19.

Imports and Exports

• Imports: For 2019/20, imports are estimated at 110 MT, with a small portion used for IMMEX (sugar-containing product exports).
• Exports: For 2019/20, exports are at 1.218 million MT, with most going to the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Exports for 2020/21 are projected to rise by 15,000 MT to 1.518 million MT, with exports to the U.S. unchanged at 760,000 MT.

Deliveries and Consumption

• Deliveries for Domestic Use: Estimated at 4.103 million MT for 2019/20, down slightly from the previous forecast, with a marginal increase in IMMEX deliveries.
• HFCS (High-Fructose Corn Syrup) Consumption: Projected at 1.380 million MT for 2019/20, down from the previous forecast due to lower international sugar prices and weakened exchange rates. For 2020/21, HFCS consumption is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.470 million MT.
• Sweetener Consumption: Per capita consumption in 2019/20 is estimated at 42.62 kg, down slightly from 43.24 kg. For 2020/21, it is projected at 42.65 kg, showing a marginal increase after three consecutive years of decline.

Key Factors Affecting Consumption

• Health Campaigns: Various laws and public campaigns are aimed at reducing sugar and HFCS intake, including front-of-package labeling and restrictions on marketing to minors.
• Economic Factors: Reduced consumer purchasing power and a weaker exchange rate are also impacting consumption, particularly for HFCS.

Key Information

• U.S. Production Trends: Cane sugar production in 2020/21 is down due to early harvests, while beet sugar production is up due to increased beet area and higher yields.
• U.S. Import Trends: TRQ imports are increased for 2020/21 due to the extension of the quota period, and high-tier imports are expected to remain elevated.
• U.S. Deliveries: Deliveries for domestic use are projected to increase in both 2019/20 and 2020/21, with the latter showing a slight rise.
• Mexico Production: Mexico's production is expected to rebound in 2020/21, but still faces challenges from drought, pests, and reduced sucrose content.
• Mexico Consumption: Both sugar and HFCS consumption are forecast to decline, with health-related policies and economic conditions playing a major role.

Main Points

• U.S. Production: Cane sugar production in 2020/21 is down due to early harvests in Louisiana, but beet sugar production is up due to higher crop areas and yields.
• U.S. Imports: Increased imports are expected in 2020/21, which will raise ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio.
• U.S. Deliveries: Deliveries for domestic use are projected to increase, driven by a strong pace of consumption and a continuation of current trends.
• Mexico Production: Mexico's production is expected to increase slightly in 2020/21, though it remains below the 2018/19 level.
• Mexico Consumption: Both sugar and HFCS consumption are expected to decline due to health-related policies and economic conditions, with a marginal increase in sweetener consumption in 2020/21.