20150618-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_373kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 18 Jun 2015
Core Content Overview
The document provides a summary of oil and gas market updates, price movements, and company-specific reports from June 17-18, 2015, with a focus on Asia and other key regions. It includes market data, news highlights, and analyst ratings for various oil and gas firms.
Market Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 0.3% to USD63.87/b, with a 1-day change of +0.17 USD.
- WTI Crude Oil: Decreased by 0.1% to USD59.92/b, with a 1-day change of -0.05 USD.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Rose by 2.1% to USD62.55/b, with a 1-day change of +1.29 USD.
- China Daqing Spot: Increased by 1.7% to USD60.57/b, with a 1-day change of +1.04 USD.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Declined by 1.3% to USD2.86/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of -0.04 USD.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Increased by 1.7% to USD7.20/MMBtu, with a 1-day change of 0.00 USD.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Rose by 0.1% to USD81.39/b, with a 1-day change of +0.05 USD.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Increased by 2.6% to USD78.88/b, with a 1-day change of +1.98 USD.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Rose by 2.5% to USD364.42/mt, with a 1-day change of +8.75 USD.
- Gold: Increased by 0.3% to USD1,185.55/Oz, with a 1-day change of +3.48 USD.
- USD-CNY: No change at 6.21, with a 1-day change of 0.00 USD.
- DJI: Increased by 0.2% to 17,935.74, with a 1-day change of +31.26.
- S&P 500: Increased by 0.2% to 2,100.44, with a 1-day change of +4.15.
News Headlines
-
Iraq's Oil Exports Hit Record High:
- Iraq's oil exports averaged 3.20 million barrels per day in June, setting a record.
- OPEC members are prioritizing market share over supply restraint to support prices.
-
Petronas Vows Not to Cut Jobs:
- Petronas, Malaysia's national oil company, will not lay off employees despite declining profits.
- Projected 40% reduction in dividends to the government, but no job cuts expected.
-
Shanghai Oil and Gas Trade Center Trial Operation:
- The center in Shanghai's financial district started trial operations.
- It is the latest national-level trading center, following the Shanghai International Energy Trade Center and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
-
OPEC Revenues Fall Below $1 Trillion:
- OPEC revenue from petroleum exports dropped below $1 trillion in 2014 for the first time since 2010.
- This highlights the impact of falling crude prices on oil-dependent economies.
-
China's Anti-Graft Investigators Target Oil Giants:
- China's anti-corruption body is scrutinizing oil companies for alleged nepotism and improper contract awards.
- CNPC officials are accused of using their power to help friends and family.
Latest Reports
Gas Malaysia (HOLD)
- The 2015 spread guidance for MYR1.58/mmBTU is higher than current levels but lower than the previous base.
- IBR could start in Jan 2016 and may include a pass-through mechanism.
- Earnings revised by +68%, -12%, -33% for FY15/16/17; TP lowered to MYR2.65 (-12%).
SapuraKencana Petroleum (HOLD)
- 1QFY15 results aligned with expectations; 1.35sen interim DPS.
- Expect margin pressure in subsequent quarters due to client cost-cutting.
- Maintain HOLD with TP of MYR2.80.
Gas Malaysia (HOLD)
- Gas selling price to increase by 10.3% effective 1 Jul 2015; no cost details provided.
- Forecasts remain unchanged pending further disclosure.
- Maintain HOLD with TP of MYR3.00.
Malaysia Oil & Gas (NEUTRAL)
- OPEC's 30m bpd target is a floor, not a ceiling; production exceeded 31m bpd since Mar 2015.
- Oil prices remain volatile; focus on Iran and shale output in the next 6 months.
- Maintain NEUTRAL; Yinson, BArmada, Dialog, and KNM are preferred BUYs.
Asia Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 17-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.63 | 8.30 | 343.7 | 157.4 | 25.1 | 15.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.43 | 7.70 | 138.1 | 135.5 | 17.8 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 11.14 | 16.80 | 64.2 | 126.0 | 16.2 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 306.0 | NR | 41.0 | 21.6 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 931.2 | NR | 47.2 | 57.5 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 179.2 | 198.00 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 810.5 | NR | 9.2 | 17.0 | 18.7 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 693.9 | NR | 3.7 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| INTEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,453 | NR | 17.2 | 65.2 | 25.3 | 28.9 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| JAPEX | 1662 JT | NR | 3,860 | NR | 1.8 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 545 | NR | 11.0 | 53.0 | N/A | 7.7 | -251.7 | 8.2 | -15.1 | 0.7 | 3.0 |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,187 | NR | 3.6 | 16.8 | 14.9 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 3.2 |
| TenonGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 1,209 | NR | 5.5 | 14.9 | 23.7 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Idemitsu | 5019 JT | NR | 2,549 | NR | 3.3 | 13.9 | N/A | 8.5 | -34.5 | 8.5 | -15.9 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Camso | 5007 JT | NR | 216 | NR | 1.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | Hold | 2.57 | 2.65 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.68 | 24.00 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 23.7 | 23.5 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 8.45 | 11.25 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 4.05 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 12.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 75.30 | NR | 23.2 | 10.1 | 24.4 | 21.8 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 12.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 69,700 | NR | 7.0 | 28.1 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 14.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 124,500 | NR | 10.3 | 49.1 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 49,600 | NR | 4.1 | 15.6 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 68.8 | 87.00 | 9.2 | 21.5 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 355.0 | 395.00 | 30.1 | 46.5 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.8 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 63,000 | 92,000 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 26.1 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Asian Oil & Gas average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 19.6 | 14.0 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
Asia Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 17-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 12.74 | NR | 16.4 | 46.9 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.61 | NR | 0.5 | 4.8 | N/A | 75.9 | 13.6 | 10.1 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 1.39 | NR | 0.3 | 2.7 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 2.11 | NR | 0.5 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.92 | NR | 0.4 | 0.7 | 81.9 | 23.8 | N/A | N/A | 9.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Petro King | 2178 HK | NR | 1.19 | NR | 0.2 | 0.5 | N/A | 79.3 | N/A | N/A | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Jutal Offshore | 3303 HK | NR | 1.10 | NR | 0.1 | 1.2 | 17.6 | 11.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.1 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.51 | 2.80 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 12.4 | 16.7 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.06 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 22.2 | 19.7 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | Sell | 1.66 | 2.55 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 23.2 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| WahSeong | WSC MK | Hold | 1.34 | 1.24 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Cosco Corp | COS SP | Sell | 0.51 | 0.43 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 36.4 | 31.9 | 16.8 | 16.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Dyna-Mac | DMHL SP | NR | 0.24 | NR | 0.2 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 15.1 | 1.1 | 8.3 |
| Ezion | EZI SP | Buy | 1.02 | 1.57 | 1.2 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 15.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Keppel | KEP SP | Hold | 8.50 | 8.50 | 11.6 | 32.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 15.5 | 1.4 | 5.2 |
| Mermaid Maritime | MMT SP | NR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Analysts Contact
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 $\times$ 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
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