20170110-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil_amp_Grease_Spot_11页_394kb

报告摘要

Oil Price Movements: On 9 Jan 2017, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices declined by 3.8%, closing at USD54.94/bbl and USD51.96/bbl, respectively. The drop was attributed to concerns over rising Iraqi exports and increasing U.S. output, which may undermine OPEC's efforts to reduce global oversupply.
OPEC Production Cuts: OPEC members agreed in November 2016 to cut production to 32.5 million bpd for six months. However, the effectiveness of these cuts is questioned, especially as Iraq's southern exports reached a record high.
Russia's Output Cut: Russia reportedly reduced its oil production by 100,000 barrels per day in January 2017, in line with the OPEC agreement. The reduction was linked to a cold spell in Western Siberia, but the exact reasons and companies involved were not disclosed.
Iraq's Oil Challenges: Despite the OPEC agreement, Iraq faces ongoing challenges such as financial instability, low oil prices, and internal political disputes. The fight against ISIS remains a priority, but the country's oil sector is still in a fragile state.

Oil Price Outlook: The recent price decline suggests that the rally driven by OPEC's production cuts may not be sustainable. There are concerns that the market may not be adequately balanced, leading to potential price reversals.
Investment Sentiment: Analysts believe that the oil price is a key driver for investment in the sector. Companies like SapuraKencana Petroleum and UMW Oil & Gas are seen as direct beneficiaries of a rising oil price environment.
Market Sentiment and Fund Positions: The momentum from hedge funds has stalled, with some starting to add short positions. This indicates a shift in market sentiment, and the expectation is that more long positions may be unwound.
Sector Challenges: The Singapore oil services sector is facing difficulties due to severe asset oversupply, and the improvement in utilisation may not be sufficient to prevent some players from running out of cash.

SapuraKencana Petroleum: Achieved a MYR1.3b job win, representing 17% of FY18E revenue. It is seen as a beta play for rising oil prices, with a target price offering a 32% upside.
UMW Oil & Gas: Secured a charter for Naga 7, its first rig contract in 2017. This is a positive development for the company, with a target price offering a 27% upside.
Indorama Ventures: Has become the world's largest integrated PET producer due to multiple acquisitions and expansions. It is expected to benefit from a nascent PTA upcycle, with a forecast of 26% CAGR in core net profit and potential positive FCF from 2017.
Singapore Offshore & Marine: Despite OPEC's efforts, the company is rated NEGATIVE due to the ongoing challenges in the sector, including asset oversupply and slow utilisation improvements.

Howard Wong: Based in HK/CHINA, contact: (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jessie Li: Based in HK/CHINA, contact: (852) 22680642, jessieli@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah: Based in INDIA, contact: (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah: Based in INDONESIA, contact: (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung: Based in MALAYSIA, contact: (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson: Based in PHILIPPINES, contact: (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong: Based in SINGAPORE, contact: (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Yupapan POLPORNPRASERT: Based in THAILAND, contact: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395, yupapan.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen: Based in VIETNAM, contact: (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh: Based in VIETNAM, contact: (84) 444555888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 9-Jan	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER (2016E)	PER (2017E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2017E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Hold	6.18	5.71	212.2	81.4	40.8	22.1	5.8	5.0	2.0	0.8	1.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.87	6.70	100.1	62.9	16.8	15.9	5.8	5.7	5.4	0.9	3.1
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.86	11.74	56.8	79.6	175.3	17.5	6.5	4.2	5.0	1.1	5.1
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	2.06	4.50	0.4	0.7	3.0	2.5	4.6	3.9	17.2	0.5	-
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	198.0	NR	37.3	24.3	14.9	12.4	5.7	5.6	9.2	1.3	2.6
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,077.7	NR	51.3	49.0	12.5	11.9	10.9	10.3	11.5	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	256.6	198.00	7.1	9.8	29.5	26.4	7.2	6.8	2.8	0.8	1.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	653.1	NR	13.9	26.1	14.0	12.0	8.9	8.4	27.3	3.5	2.2
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	463.0	NR	6.9	28.4	14.8	9.5	9.0	6.9	21.2	2.9	2.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Hold	9.78	12.10	1.9	0.7	13.2	10.9	12.3	11.7	9.7	1.4	0.8
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	Buy	5.79	7.48	0.2	0.1	9.0	7.5	8.4	5.6	8.8	0.8	1.4
S-OIL	010950 KS	NR	86,400	NR	8.1	19.7	7.9	8.5	7.4	7.3	21.2	1.6	3.4
SK Innovation	096770 KS	NR	159,000	NR	12.3	32.9	N/A	7.6	4.3	4.5	11.6	0.9	2.7
GS Holdings	078930 KS	NR	53,200	NR	4.1	7.2	7.2	7.2	7.5	7.3	10.2	0.7	2.9
Formosa Petrochemical	6505 TT	NR	109.00	NR	32.4	11.9	17.1	18.9	11.5	12.6	21.0	3.6	4.5
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	63.3	72.00	7.9	18.3	12.5	10.4	7.5	6.7	9.8	1.2	4.1
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	383.0	423.00	30.7	56.9	12.0	11.0	5.9	5.6	12.0	1.3	5.6
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Hold	69.3	73.00	4.0	10.7	8.1	9.3	5.7	5.7	17.6	1.3	5.6
Asian Refiners Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	35.7	21.7	9.6	6.4	4.0	1.4	4.4
Asian E&P Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	38.3	18.4	7.3	6.4	6.9	1.3	2.6

Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
Notes:
- UR = Under Review
- NR = Not Rated
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.

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