20160914-USDA-Feed_Outlook_19页_750kb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service (ERS) Feed Outlook Report - FDS-16i, September 14, 2016

Core Content

This report provides an update on the U.S. and global feed grain supply, use, and price projections for the 2016/17 marketing year, highlighting changes in yields, production, and consumption, as well as the implications for prices and ending stocks.

Key Projections and Changes

U.S. Feed Grain Supply

Corn yield is lowered by 0.7 bushels per acre to 174.4 bushels, resulting in a 15,093 million bushel crop, down 61 million bushels from the previous month.
Sorghum yield is raised by 2.2 bushels per acre, increasing the crop to 488.5 million bushels, up 13.8 million bushels from the previous month.
Total feed grain production is estimated at 401.0 million metric tons.
Feed and residual use is reduced by 25 million bushels, leading to a 25.6 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 2,384 million bushels, still the highest since 1987/88.
Total feed grain supplies are projected at 451.8 million metric tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast and 34.6 million metric tons above the 2015/16 level.

U.S. Feed Grain Prices

Corn price is raised by $0.05 on both ends of the range to $2.90–$3.50, with a midpoint of $3.20.
Sorghum price is raised by $0.05 to $2.75–$3.35, with a midpoint of $3.05.
Oats price is lowered by $0.05 to $1.95–$1.55, with a midpoint of $1.75.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

World coarse grain production for 2016/17 is expected to rise 5.8% from the previous year, but the increase is slightly smaller than the August forecast.
World coarse grain production is projected at 1,319.7 million tons, down 2.8 million tons from the previous month.
World coarse grain consumption remains unchanged at 1,311.4 million tons, up 5.1% from 2015/16.
World coarse grain trade is expected to decrease by 7.2 million tons to 174.3 million tons, but compared to August, it is up 1.1 million tons (0.7%).

Global Ending Stocks

Global coarse grain ending stocks are forecast to increase by 8.3 million tons from the previous year, reaching 253.3 million tons, the highest since 1987/88.
China's coarse grain ending stocks are expected to fall by 7.3 million tons.
U.S. coarse grain ending stocks are projected to rise by 13.5 million tons, primarily due to corn stocks increasing to 64.5 million tons.

Main Trends and Views

U.S. corn supply is at a record high, despite a small yield reduction, due to increased carryin and stable imports.
Feed and residual use is lower for all four feed grains and wheat, with the largest decline in corn.
Sorghum production is up, supported by higher yields, but supply remains below the previous year.
China's production and imports are declining in response to stock reduction policies, with corn production dropping due to drought in key regions.
EU experiences reduced production in corn and barley, due to drought conditions and lower yields.
Brazil is expected to increase corn production for 2016/17, as domestic prices are higher than soybean prices.

Key Information

Feed and residual use for the 2016/17 crop is 155.1 million metric tons, down 0.5 million from the previous month.
Feed grain use is up compared to 2015/16, with corn accounting for 93% of the total feed and residual use.
U.S. corn utilization is down slightly from the previous month, but up 17.4 million metric tons from 2015/16.
World coarse grain ending stocks are virtually unchanged relative to consumption, but higher than the previous year.
China's corn production is down 2.0 million tons, and corn imports are up 2.0 million tons in 2016/17, reflecting stock reduction efforts.