期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2015number2_23页_4mb

NBER Reporter Summary: 2015, Number 2

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for 2015, Number 2, provides a quarterly summary of research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), focusing on international macroprudential policies and related topics such as capital controls, financial fragility, and global liquidity conditions. It highlights the evolving role of macroprudential regulation in managing financial stability, especially in the context of emerging markets and the global financial crisis.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Macroprudential Policies and Financial Crises

• Macroprudential regulation aims to address systemic risks in the financial system by considering the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the endogeneity of asset prices.
• Overborrowing can lead to pecuniary externalities, where the collective borrowing decisions of households and firms affect asset prices and increase the likelihood of financial crises.
• Collateral constraints in financial markets act as a financial accelerator, amplifying economic downturns.
• Capital controls can be used to manage capital inflows and outflows, especially during booms and busts, and may help reduce financial fragility.

2. Macroprudential Regulation in Emerging Markets

• Emerging markets have long used macroprudential tools such as reserve requirements, dividend taxes, and liability composition regulations to manage financial risks.
• Foreign currency liabilities can be more volatile than domestic ones, and currency mismatches have historically led to balance sheet contractions during devaluations.
• Reserve requirements are often used countercyclically in emerging markets, meaning they are adjusted in response to economic cycles to reduce the risk of overborrowing.

3. The Role of Foreign Exchange Reserves

• Increasing foreign exchange reserves is a precautionary measure to reduce the risk of financial crises and balance of payments shocks.
• During the 2008-09 financial crisis, countries with higher foreign exchange reserves were better able to withstand the impact.
• In 2013, countries with higher reserves also showed greater resilience to U.S. interest rate hikes.

4. The Trilemma and Global Liquidity

• The Impossible Trinity (or Trilemma) suggests that a country cannot simultaneously have fixed exchange rates, high capital mobility, and monetary independence.
• Floating exchange rates are often thought to insulate countries from global financial shocks, but liquidity transmission may undermine this.
• Macroprudential policies can help reduce vulnerability to global liquidity shocks and interest rate changes.
• The zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates may limit the effectiveness of monetary policy, making capital flow management or macroprudential regulation more relevant.

5. Coordination and Policy Implications

• Central bank coordination is essential to address spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to emerging markets.
• Macroprudential policies may require international coordination, especially in managing global liquidity and financial stability.
• Research suggests that capital controls and macroprudential measures can be complementary in reducing the risk of financial instability.

Key Research Findings

• Overborrowing in financial markets can lead to systemic risk and financial crises, especially when asset prices are endogenous to the financial system.
• Macroprudential policies that vary with the business cycle (e.g., adjusting reserve requirements) can offset the overborrowing externality and reduce the need for bailouts.
• Emerging markets are more vulnerable to currency mismatches and foreign debt risks, and have used capital controls and prudential measures to mitigate these risks.
• Foreign exchange reserves act as a buffer against external shocks, and their strategic use is critical for financial stability.
• The Trilemma remains a key challenge in monetary policy design, and floating exchange rates may not always provide the expected insulation from global financial conditions.
• Macroprudential regulation is a viable alternative to monetary policy in certain conditions, especially when interest rates are constrained.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter emphasizes the importance of macroprudential regulation in addressing financial instability, particularly in emerging markets. It highlights the need for policy coordination, the role of foreign exchange reserves, and the limitations of traditional monetary policy in a globalized financial system. The report also underscores the complexity of financial market interactions and the potential benefits of using capital controls and macroprudential measures to manage credit booms, liquidity risks, and global shocks.