期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-winter1999-2000_64页_4mb

NBER Reporter Summary: Winter 1999/2000

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Winter 1999/2000 focuses on research conducted by the NBER's Program on International Finance and Macroeconomics (IFM Program). It highlights studies on emerging markets, Japan, the European Union, global economic integration, and exchange rate regimes. The report also discusses the causes of financial crises, contagion effects, and policy responses to these challenges.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Emerging Markets and Currency Crises

• Recent Crises: The report examines the 1994 Mexican peso crisis and the 1997-1998 East Asian financial crisis.
• Causes of Crises: Researchers consider various factors:
  • Capital flows: High and volatile short-term capital inflows can destabilize economies.
  • Exchange rate policies: Maintaining fixed exchange rates, especially in the context of high debt and low reserves, can lead to crises.
  • Financial structure distortions: In East Asia, issues such as "crony capitalism" (implicit government guarantees for poorly regulated banks and firms) were identified as key contributors.
• Effects of Crises: Devaluation leads to severe economic consequences, including recession, bankruptcy, and poverty, particularly for firms and the poor who rely on local currency revenues.
• Policy Responses:
  • Capital controls (e.g., Chile's penalties on short-term inflows) have had mixed success.
  • Liberalization of capital outflows may signal stability and attract investment.
  • International institutions (like the IMF and World Bank) are under scrutiny for their role in managing crises and reforms.

2. Japan and the European Union

• Japan's Recession: Japan experienced a prolonged recession in the 1990s, exacerbated by a weak banking system and rigid financial regulations.
• EU Monetary Union: The European Monetary Union (EMU) was launched in 1999 with the euro as its common currency. Researchers analyze its economic and political implications.
• Monetary Policy in the EU: The European Central Bank (ECB) is studied for its potential to target price levels and its role in the European monetary system.
• Exchange Rate Integration: The report considers the long-term viability of a common currency and its impact on trade and financial stability.

3. Global Economic Integration

• Capital Mobility: Studies show that capital flows can both promote and destabilize economies, depending on their composition and management.
• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Researchers analyze the extent to which national borders and currencies affect trade and price levels.
• Historical Perspective: There is evidence that financial integration in the early 20th century was as significant as it is today, though the mechanisms and outcomes differed.

4. Exchange Rate Regimes

• Fixed vs. Floating Rates: Both regimes have pros and cons:
  • Fixed rates provide stability but may lead to higher vulnerability due to reliance on reserves and external borrowing.
  • Floating rates offer more flexibility but may be subject to volatility and speculative attacks.
• Contagion: Currency crises in one country can spread to others, even without direct trade links. This is attributed to financial linkages, investor behavior, and policy responses.
• Optimal Regime: No single exchange rate regime is universally optimal. The choice depends on a country's specific economic conditions, such as openness, business cycle synchronicity, and initial macroeconomic stability.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization focused on objective quantitative analysis of the U.S. economy.
• The IFM Program covers a wide range of topics, including:
  • Emerging market crises and their causes.
  • The role of financial institutions and policies in economic stability.
  • The effects of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance.
  • Global financial integration and its implications for trade and investment.
• The reporter is an informational publication and not copyrighted, allowing free reproduction with proper attribution.
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence and flexibility in research.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complexity of international financial and macroeconomic issues, particularly in the context of emerging markets and global integration. It highlights the importance of understanding both the structural and behavioral factors that contribute to financial crises and the need for tailored policy responses. The role of exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and international institutions remains central to the analysis, with a focus on long-term stability and economic growth.