期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2009number2_40页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2009, Number 2

Core Content

This issue of the NBER Reporter focuses on the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), highlighting recent research from the International Finance and Macroeconomics (IFM) program. It includes discussions on the origins of the crisis, its consequences for the real economy, the spread of the crisis globally, country vulnerability, and financial liberalization. The report also touches on the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits and the role of financial institutions in the crisis.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Origins of the U.S. Financial Crisis

• The crisis originated from low U.S. interest rates (2003-2006), which led to a "search for yield" by investors.
• This resulted in increased investment in alternative assets such as foreign currencies, commodities, and housing.
• The subprime mortgage crisis was a key trigger, with financial institutions playing a central role in the buildup of risk.
• Researchers like Brunnermeier, Diamond, Rajan, and Taylor provide insights into the origins and progression of the crisis.

2. Consequences for the Real Economy

• Stock market declines are associated with economic activity drops.
• Barro and Ursúa find that a 25% stock market decline in non-war periods leads to a 10% decline in real economic activity with 20% probability.
• Reinhart and Rogoff analyze the historical impact of financial crises, noting:
  • Average housing price declines of 35% over 6 years.
  • Equity price collapses average 55% over 3.5 years.
  • Unemployment rises by 7 percentage points.
  • Output falls by over 9%.
  • Government debt increases by an average of 86% due to lost tax revenues.
• Banking crises in middle-to-low-income countries have similar patterns to those in rich countries.

3. Spread of the Crisis throughout the Global Banking System

• Initially, it was thought that emerging markets would be decoupled from the crisis.
• The crisis spread globally through banking interconnections.
• Cetorelli and Goldberg study the globalization of U.S. banks and how liquidity shocks in the U.S. affected lending abroad.
• Eichengreen et al. show that international interdependence increased significantly during the crisis, especially after Lehman Brothers' failure.

4. What Determines Which Countries Are Worst Hit by the Crisis?

• Fiscal policy in developing countries tends to be procyclical, worsening macroeconomic instability.
• Currency mismatches and foreign-denominated liabilities increase vulnerability.
• Reserve accumulation is a precautionary measure against financial shocks.
• Swap lines and sovereign wealth funds can provide financial stability.
• Financial liberalization can be beneficial if countries are sufficiently developed, particularly in terms of institutions and rule of law.

5. Re-examining Financial Liberalization

• There is a long-term trend toward financial integration and diversification, reducing home bias in investment.
• However, the severity of the GFC has raised questions about whether financial liberalization is a blessing or a curse.
• Reinhart and Reinhart argue that global capital flow cycles are driven by U.S. interest rates, and capital inflows are not a blessing.
• Mendoza and Terrones find that credit booms often precede financial crises in emerging markets.
• Edwards highlights that external crises have been more costly in Latin America than elsewhere.

6. Conditions under which Capital Inflows are Beneficial

• Capital inflows are more beneficial when they occur in stable financial environments.
• Kose, Prasad, and Taylor find that financial openness can boost productivity if certain threshold conditions are met.
• Aizenman and Ito show that financial openness with high financial development can reduce or increase output volatility, depending on the level of development.
• Ju and Wei argue that financial capital flows from low-quality institutional economies to high-quality ones.

7. U.S. Current Account Deficits: Sustainability or Comparative Advantage?

• The U.S. current account deficits have been debated as either unsustainable or a result of its comparative advantage in providing high-quality assets.
• Forbes, Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas argue that the subprime crisis and global imbalances stem from global savings glut and scarcity of sound financial assets.
• Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber challenge the idea that the U.S. current account deficit is unsustainable, citing strong international demand for U.S. dollars.
• Obstfeld suggests that capital globalization is beneficial only if entrenched economic interests are reformed.
• Feldstein identifies low U.S. saving rates as the root of the current account imbalance.
• Chinn and Frankel argue that the U.S. may lose its dominance in the global currency system, with the euro potentially surpassing the dollar.

Key Information

• The Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009) had significant domestic and international consequences.
• Financial integration and openness can have both positive and negative impacts, depending on institutional quality and reforms.
• Reserve accumulation and swap lines serve as precautionary mechanisms against financial shocks.
• The U.S. current account deficit remains a controversial topic, with debates on sustainability, comparative advantage, and global imbalances.
• China is often cited as a source of global savings, contributing to the global savings glut and U.S. current account deficits.

Summary of Research Papers

Conclusion

The NBER report highlights the complex interplay between financial liberalization, global imbalances, and economic stability. It underscores the importance of institutional quality and policy coordination in mitigating the risks of financial crises. The U.S. current account deficit remains a central debate, with arguments both for and against its sustainability. The global financial crisis has reshaped views on financial integration, capital flows, and economic policy.