20140821-巴黎银行证券-Brazil__2014_election_tracker_16页_573kb

Brazil: 2014 Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the 2014 Brazilian presidential election, focusing on key data points such as approval ratings, candidate familiarity, undecided voters, and the timeline of the election process. It also includes candidate bios and methodological differences among polling institutes.

Main Candidates

1. Dilma Rousseff (PT - Centre-Left)

• Born: Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (1947)
• Political Background:
  • President of the Republic (2010 - now)
  • Chief of Staff (2005-2010)
  • Minister of Mines and Energy (2003-2005)
  • Former Secretary of Mines, Energy and Communications in Rio Grande do Sul (1999-2002)
  • Joined the Worker's Party (PT) in 2001
• Academic Background:
  • BA in Economics at Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (1977)
  • Unfinished Masters and PhD in Economics at University of Campinas
• Election Performance:
  • Supported by former President Lula da Silva
  • Popular among the poorest and less-educated population
  • Critics question her government's use of price controls, credit subsidies, and fiscal accounting
• Polling Data:
  • Approval ratings: 47% (2006), 78% (2010)
  • Election chances: Based on approval ratings, 40% chance if between 35-45%, 100% if above 46%

2. Aécio Neves (PSDB - Centre-Right)

• Born: Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (1960)
• Political Background:
  • Federal Senator from Minas Gerais (2011 - now)
  • Governor of Minas Gerais (2003-2006, 2007-2010)
  • President of the Lower House (2001-2002)
  • Federal congressman from Minas Gerais (1987-2002)
• Academic Background:
  • BA in Economics at Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais
• Policy Positions:
  • Advocates for privatization and curbing government spending
  • Implemented "management shock" in Minas Gerais, reducing salaries and government size
• Polling Data:
  • Approval ratings: Not explicitly provided
  • Election chances: Likely influenced by his popularity and experience

3. Marina Silva (PSB - Centre-Left)

• Born: Rio Branco, Acre (1958)
• Political Background:
  • Minister of Environment (2003-2008)
  • Former Senator from Acre (1995-1998, 2003-2011)
  • State congresswoman of Acre (1991-1994)
  • Switched from PT to PV in 2009
• Academic Background:
  • BA in History at Federal University of Acre (1984)
• Election Performance:
  • Third place in the 2010 presidential election with 19% of valid votes
  • Known for environmental advocacy
• Polling Data:
  • Approval ratings: Not explicitly provided
  • Election chances: Likely influenced by her environmental platform and regional support

Key Information

Approval and Election Chances

• A candidate with less than 35% approval has a 0% chance of winning.
• A candidate with 35-45% approval has a 40% chance.
• A candidate with 46% or more approval has a 100% chance.

Undecided Voters

• Undecided voters include those who might vote blank, null, or not know/didn't answer.
• The evolution of undecided voters is tracked from August to October 2014.

TV Campaigning

• TV campaigning for the first round began on 19 August and ended on 2 October.
• TV debates were held on 2 October (Globo), 1 September (SBT), and 21 August (TV Bandeirantes).

Election Calendar

• August:
  • 19 August: Publicly financed campaign starts on TV and radio
  • 21 August: TV Debate among main candidates (TV Bandeirantes)
  • 23 August: Deadline for PSB to choose another candidate
  • 29 August: Q2 GDP release
• September:
  • 1 September: TV Debate among main candidates (SBT)
  • 5 September: August IPCA inflation release
• October:
  • 2 October: TV Debate among main candidates (Globo)
  • 5 October: First round of elections
  • 8 October: September IPCA inflation release
  • 11 October: Publicly financed campaign for second round starts
  • 24 October: TV Debate among main candidates (Globo)
  • 26 October: Second round of elections

Methodological Differences

• Datafolha: Conducts interviews in public places.
• Ibope: Conducts interviews at home.
• Sampling: Ibope uses the latest census data; Datafolha focuses on urban centers.
• Recommendation: Focus on common trends rather than comparing methodologies to determine accuracy.

Candidate Familiarity and Rejection Rates

• Familiarity:
  • Indicates the percentage of surveyees who have heard of the candidate.
• Rejection Rate:
  • Indicates the percentage of surveyees who would not vote for the candidate under any circumstances.

Research Disclaimers

• The report is based on public sources and may not be accurate, complete, or up to date.
• No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report.
• The report is for professional clients only in certain jurisdictions and not for retail clients.
• BNP Paribas may have financial interests in mentioned entities and may have acted on the information before publication.

Conclusion

The 2014 Brazilian presidential election involved key candidates Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves, and Marina Silva, each with distinct political backgrounds and policy positions. The document highlights the importance of approval ratings and familiarity in predicting election outcomes, while also noting the methodological differences among polling institutes. The election timeline and TV campaigning schedule are provided to contextualize the political activities leading up to the vote.