20240701-铜冠金源期货-钢材周报_关注政策预期_钢材或震荡为主_8页_1mb

钢材周报: 螺纹钢与热轧卷板市场分析

核心观点摘要

本周钢材市场分析报告指出，在宏观面政策预期逐步明朗的背景下，钢材期价预计将继续震荡运行。核心结论如下：

• 宏观层面: 本月北京宣布降低房地产贷款首付比例，宏观层面释放政策宽松信号。中共中央政治局会议已确定第三屆中央委员会第三次全体会议的具体召开日期，市场预期未来可能有新一轮的宏观政策出台，对市场心态构成支撑。
• 产业层面: 上周数据显示，钢铁产量继续增长，螺纹钢和热卷产量均环增。钢材总库存小幅增加，但热卷社库有所回落。螺纹钢表需维持稳定，热卷表需小幅回升。成材累库现象普遍存在，但热卷去库迹象略有显现。
• 基本面: 上周铁水产量略有下降，但钢材整体产量增幅显著，其中建材品种涨幅最大。钢厂利润因成本支撑减弱而收缩，高炉复产存在调整可能。整体来看，钢材基本面呈现供需博弈状态，基本面偏弱，驱动力不足。
• 操作建议: 综合判断，市场主要呈现震荡走势。操作策略建议以震荡思路进行。

主要结论与数据集中摘要

1. 宏观与政策：

   • 北京市发布新政，降低个人住房公积金贷款首付比例，首套房最低首付不低于20%，二套房根据区域在20%-35%之间调整。
   • 中共中央政治局会议确定了党的第二十届中央委员会第三次全体会议将于7月在北京召开。

2. 产业数据：

   • 产量： 前周螺纹钢周产244万吨，环比+14万吨至245万吨；热卷周产321万吨，环比小幅增加。
   • 库存：
     • 螺纹：总库存784万吨，环比增9万吨；厂库202万吨，环比+3万吨；社库578万吨，环比+5万吨。
     • 热卷：总库存412万吨，环比减1万吨；厂库90万吨，环比+1万吨；社库大幅减少2万吨至3321万吨。
   • 需求： 螺纹钢表需在上上周保持平稳在236万吨水平；热卷表需小幅增长。

3. 基本面分析：

   • 铁水产量出现下降。
   • 钢材产量大幅增加，建材增幅度最大。
   • 价格方面，唐山钢坯、上海螺纹钢、热卷价格均有小幅下跌。
   • 钢厂利润承压收缩，高炉复产可能存在延迟。
   • 整体基本面呈现累库态势（螺纹、热卷皆累），但热卷库差结构有所改善。成本支撑力度减弱。
   • 市场预计螺纹钢价格区间运行在3455-3680元/吨，热卷价格运行在3640-3850元/吨。

4. 行情展望与建议：

   • 预计短期市场将在政策预期与基本面偏弱之间维持震荡格局。
   • 具体操作建议为震荡思路交易。

5. 图表示例 (基差、利润、开工率等概要)：

   • 提供了螺纹钢、热卷的基差、钢厂利润情况、高炉开工率、产量、库存变化的图表示例，展示了这些关键变量的动态。

English Market Analysis for Steel Futures

Core View Summary

The weekly steel market report suggests that, amidst clearer macro policy expectations, steel futures prices are expected to remain volatile. The key points are:

• Macro: Capital Beijing has eased pressure on real estate loans (adjusting down payment ratios). The Central Politburo has set the date for the upcoming Party's Third Plenary Session, fostering market anticipation of future macro policy releases.
• Industry Data: Steel output remained high last week. In a data fluctuation, rebar and thermal coil production volumes both increased, while total inventory slightly grew for rebar (matching both social and plant inventory increases) and decreased slightly for thermal coil (largely due to reduced social inventory). Rebar tabular demand stayed constant.
• Fundamentals: Iron water output slightly down. Steel production quantity jumped significantly, with steel bars showing the largest increase. Profits at steelmakers are squeezed. The overall fundamental picture is weak, driven by a supply glut (steel total) but partially offset by steeper input costs earlier in the week.
• Recommendations: Considering the macro backdrop and weak fundamentals, a range-bound trading approach is suggested. Target price bands are set for Rebar (3455-3680 RMB/mt) and Thermal Coil (3640-3850 RMB/mt).
• Recommendations: A trading approach focused on range-bound movements is recommended.

Immediate Relevance:

• Macro & Policy: Beijing relaxed mortgage policies (down payment ratios for housing loans). A Party Plenum's date has been confirmed, potentially ushering in new measures.
• Industry Data: Output capacity rose last week (Rebar +14mt week-on-week, Thermal Coil slight increase). Aggregate inventory levels for Rebar slightly increased last week (+9mt). Thermal Coil inventory showed small reductions at the national warehouse level.
• Fundamentals: Iron water levels dipped. Steel output volumes surged notably, driven especially by steel bars. Plant profitability is pressured, questioning sustained furnace restarts. Overall fundamentals suggest weak buying pressure despite margin expectations, leading to inventory accumulation. Cost supports are weakening. Price targets are maintained for the short term.