2015年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania___Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_97页_6mb

Tanzania Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report presents an Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment (ASRA) for Tanzania, focusing on the identification and prioritization of key agricultural risks. It is the first phase of a two-part study, with the second phase addressing risk management solutions. The assessment is conducted by the World Bank's Agricultural Risk Management Team (ARMT), in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC).

Main Points

1. Agricultural Sector Overview and Performance

• Tanzania has 44 million hectares of arable land, but only about 10.1 million hectares are currently cultivated.
• Agriculture contributes 28.1% of GDP and 25% of export earnings, and provides a livelihood for over 75% of the population.
• Agricultural GDP has grown at an average of 4% annually over the past eight years, though this is below the overall GDP growth rate of nearly 7%.
• Growth dipped in 2011 due to a drought, but generally remains stable, with the exception of fluctuations caused by climatic and sanitary risks.

2. Agro-Climatic Conditions

• Tanzania has seven agro-ecological zones with varying rainfall patterns, soil types, and growing seasons.
• The bimodal rainfall pattern (Vuli and Masika) is prevalent in the northeast and coastal areas, while the unimodal pattern (Musumi) is found in the south and west.
• Unreliable rainfall patterns, especially in terms of intensity and distribution, are a major risk to agricultural production.

3. Crop Production System and Exports

• Major crops include cashew nuts, coffee, cotton, tea, tobacco, maize, and rice.
• These crops make up over 80% of agricultural GDP and are central to both domestic food security and export earnings.
• There is a strong reliance on traditional export crops, and their production is highly susceptible to price volatility and climatic shocks.

4. Principal Constraints in the Agricultural System

• The main challenges include unmanaged risks, particularly those related to weather variability and periodic droughts.
• Low-input technologies are still widely used, leading to poor yields and limited economic returns.
• High price volatility and limited risk management practices among smallholder farmers exacerbate the situation.

Key Risks

5. Agricultural Sector Risks

• Drought: A major risk for maize, rice, and cotton, especially in regions like Mbeya, Manyara, Shinyanga, and Iringa.
• Pests and Diseases: Cause yield volatility and can lead to severe damage, particularly in cotton, maize, and coffee.
• Price Volatility: Especially for coffee and cotton, where domestic prices are closely tied to international market fluctuations.
• Regulatory Risks: Include changes in marketing system regulations and stakeholder roles in supply chains.

Adverse Impact of Agricultural Risk

6. Quantification of Losses

• The value of annual production losses due to unmanaged risks is estimated at approximately US$203 million, or 3.5% of agricultural GDP.
• Drought is the primary cause of these losses, often in combination with other events.
• Price volatility and regulatory changes also contribute significantly to economic instability.

Stakeholders' Assessment

7. Impact of Risks at Stakeholder Level

• Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable, with their food security and income heavily dependent on crop yields.
• Cooperatives, ginners, and other procurement agents face significant financial risks due to price fluctuations and storage practices.
• Exporters and large trading companies are better positioned to manage risks through futures-based strategies.

Risk Prioritization and Management

8. Risk Prioritization

• Risks are prioritized based on frequency, potential for loss, and stakeholders’ ability to manage them.
• The main risks identified include drought, pests and diseases, price volatility, and regulatory uncertainty.

9. Priority Risk Management Measures

• Strengthening Seed Supply Chains: Develop drought-tolerant and disease-resistant seeds, and improve seed markets.
• Enhancing Agricultural Technology Innovation: Promote practices that mitigate production losses from irregular rainfall and pests.
• Revising Maize Trade Policies: Address the unpredictability of trade regulations to reduce market volatility.
• Implementing Risk Management Strategies for Export Crops: Focus on coffee and cotton to protect vulnerable stakeholders.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Illustrates the three-phase risk assessment process.
• Figure 1.2: Shows the risk identification and prioritization framework.
• Figure 2.1: Depicts Tanzania's real GDP growth by sector.
• Figure 2.2: Maps Tanzania's land resource zones.
• Table 2.1: Provides a snapshot of Tanzania’s economic and demographic indicators.
• Table 2.2: Details GDP composition by sector from 1990 to 2010.
• Table 4.1: Lists the value of annual production losses.
• Table 6.1 and 6.2: Summarize risk prioritization for food and export crops.
• Table 6.3 and 6.4: Lists potential risk management solutions and identifies gaps.

Conclusion

The report highlights that while Tanzania's agricultural sector has not experienced catastrophic shocks in the past 20 years, it remains highly vulnerable to production and market risks. The study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive risk management approach, particularly in improving seed supply, technology innovation, and trade policies, to ensure sustainable growth and poverty reduction. The findings will inform the Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP) and guide future risk mitigation efforts.