2015年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_84页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of Mongolia's Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the risks facing Mongolia's agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and crop production. It highlights the challenges posed by climatic variability, economic shocks, and the lack of robust risk management mechanisms. The assessment is conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with the Mongolian Government and outlines key recommendations to enhance the sector's resilience.

Main Agro-Ecological Zones

Mongolia has six main agro-ecological zones, each with distinct characteristics affecting agricultural production:

Alpine Tundra: 3.0% of total area, no data on precipitation, grazing, or livestock.
Mountain Taiga: 4.1% of total area, 300-500 mm annual precipitation, 22% of grazing area, 14% of livestock (LSU), primarily horses, cattle, and yaks.
Mountain and Forest Steppe: 25.1% of total area, 200-300 mm annual precipitation, 12% of grazing area, 43% of livestock (LSU), year-round grazing for all livestock except camels.
Grassland Steppe: 26.1% of total area, 150-250 mm annual precipitation, 27% of grazing area, 25% of livestock (LSU), year-round grazing for all animals except camels; crop production is significant.
Desert Steppe: 27.2% of total area, 100-200 mm annual precipitation, 24% of grazing area, 14% of livestock (LSU), includes camels, horses, and goats.
Desert: 14.5% of total area, <100 mm annual precipitation, 15% of grazing area, 5% of livestock (LSU), includes camels, horses, and goats.

Agricultural Overview

Mongolia is one of the largest and least densely populated countries, with 1.55 million km² of land and 3 million people.
The country's economy and agriculture are heavily influenced by its extreme climate and vast grasslands.
Livestock production accounts for 75% of GAO in current prices and employs 30% of the economically active population.
Crop production is limited, with dry land wheat being the dominant crop, followed by other cereals, fodder crops, potatoes, and vegetables.
The livestock sector is especially vulnerable to dzuds, severe winter weather events, and other climatic shocks.

Trends in Livestock and Crop Production

Livestock numbers have increased rapidly over the past few decades, leading to overgrazing and increased vulnerability to dzuds.
Dzuds are the most frequent and severe adverse events, often resulting in significant livestock mortality.
Droughts and price volatility also pose substantial risks, though droughts primarily affect crops.
Price shocks are linked to global financial crises and macroeconomic instability, impacting both producers and the sector's overall performance.

Major Agricultural Sector Risks

Dzuds: The most significant source of risk, affecting both production and prices.
Drought: Less frequent than dzuds, but impacts crop production.
Macro-Economic Shocks: Such as the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial Crisis, which can cause generalized price shocks.
Policy Shocks: From the early 1990s economic transition, which has had long-term effects on the sector.

Impact of Risks

Dzuds have the highest frequency and cost, with significant losses in livestock.
Droughts have a more limited impact due to the mobility of livestock.
Price volatility affects the entire sector and is linked to external economic factors.
Livestock is the most vulnerable commodity, while wheat has the highest probability of incurring risk.

Risk Management Landscape

A variety of risk management initiatives exist, including weather-based index insurance for livestock.
The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) plays a key role in dzud response, providing fodder support through its Emergency Reserve.
Public-private partnerships have been established to transfer production risks to insurance companies.
Mitigation measures are limited, despite their potential benefits for both risk management and productivity.
Land and pasture management require more attention and stronger policy support.

Recommendations for Risk Management

Strengthen winter preparation practices among herders, such as producing hay and forage.
Increase awareness and knowledge of risk mitigation through advisory services and information campaigns.
Designate specific pasture land for use during dzud events.
Enhance the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) for timely information on weather and pasture conditions.
Improve pasture tenure security to ensure sustainable land use.
Promote information sharing among herders to enhance collective risk management.
Encourage conservation agriculture and drought-tolerant crop varieties.
Improve coordination between agencies for more effective emergency response.
Explore rapid access to emergency finance mechanisms, including contingent finance.
Devise incentives for the crop sector to adopt risk-mitigating practices.
Apply agricultural support programs more strategically for risk management.

Key Findings

Mongolia's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to both physical and economic shocks.
Dzuds are the most damaging adverse events, with increasing frequency and severity due to climate change.
Livestock is the main driver of agricultural output and employment.
Price volatility is a systemic risk that affects both producers and the rural population.
Macro-economic shocks have had a greater impact on the national economy than agricultural shocks.
The sector's long-term resilience depends on sustainable management of livestock and pasture, as well as better policy frameworks and coordination.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of risk management in Mongolia's agricultural sector, especially for livestock. It recommends a comprehensive approach that includes both mitigation and transfer mechanisms, as well as improved information sharing and policy support. By addressing these risks, Mongolia can enhance the stability and growth of its agricultural sector, reducing the impact of shocks on producers and the rural population.

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