2015年-世界发展银行全球_Ghana_Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment___Risk_Prioritization_142页_19mb

Ghana Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive risk assessment of Ghana's agricultural sector, focusing on production, market, and enabling environment risks. It was prepared by the World Bank Group's Agriculture Risk Management Team (ARMT) to support the Group of Eight (G-8) New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, and is primarily funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Feed the Futures program. The report also includes contributions from the Netherlands and Switzerland.

The assessment aims to help the Ghanaian government understand the key risks to the sector, evaluate their impact on different stakeholders, and prioritize risk management interventions to improve stability, reduce vulnerability, and enhance resilience. The findings are intended to inform the Medium-Term Agricultural Sector Investment Plan (METASIP) and guide future agricultural development strategies.

Main Risks Identified

1. Production Risks

• Drought: The most significant risk, especially in the northern regions, leading to late or early onset of rains, low cumulative rainfall, and affecting crops like sorghum, millet, maize, and groundnuts.
• Flash Flooding: Common in many regions due to excessive rainfall, though less destructive than drought, it affects cassava, rice, yams, and groundnuts.
• Pests and Diseases: A major threat, particularly to cassava, cocoa, and plantain. Examples include cocoa swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD), black pod disease, and capsids/mirids. Current control measures are relatively effective for some crops.
• Weather Variability: Leads to production shocks, with the frequency and severity of these shocks varying by region and crop.

2. Market Risks

• Price Volatility: Affects all agricultural stakeholders, with maize being the most vulnerable. Increased exports of maize have heightened domestic price fluctuations.
• Commodity Price Shocks: Particularly for food crops like plantain, cassava, yams, and maize, which experience high inter-annual and seasonal price variability.

3. Enabling Environment Risks

• Weak Institutional Capacity: Concerns about the ability of key institutions like the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) and the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO) to manage and respond to agricultural risks.
• Budget Shortfalls: Impact the effectiveness of risk management and disaster response mechanisms.
• Inadequate Input Supply: Leads to low productivity and growth, as well as limited on-farm investment.

Key Findings and Impacts

• Sector Resilience: Although the agricultural sector has shown growth since the 1990s, it remains vulnerable to various risks. The sector has experienced only one year of negative growth (2007) in the 18-year period (1993–2010).
• Regional Vulnerability: The Upper East, Upper West, and Northern regions are most prone to drought and flooding. The Eastern Region is more susceptible to fluctuations in maize and cassava production.
• Vulnerability of Rural Households: Low-income rural households, especially in the northern regions, are most vulnerable to production and price shocks due to limited coping capacity.
• Climate Change Impacts: Projections indicate changes in rainfall and temperature patterns that could affect crop suitability and yields. Cocoa growing areas may become less suitable by 2050.
• Economic Indicators: Agriculture contributes significantly to GDP, employment, and foreign exchange earnings, but its share in merchandise exports has declined, while imports have increased, signaling a shift in the sector's role.

Recommendations for Risk Management

The report outlines several priority interventions to manage agricultural risks effectively:

1. Promote Improved Farming Practices:

   • Integrated Pest Management (IPM) in the south.
   • Conservation agriculture in the north.

2. Strengthen Seed Development and Distribution:

   • Focus on drought, pest, and disease-resistant seeds.

3. Upgrade Information Systems:

   • Provide timely and relevant weather, price, and pest/disease data.
   • Include market information on production, stocks, and trade.

4. Improve Water Management and Irrigation:

   • Soil and water conservation measures.
   • Micro-level irrigation and drainage infrastructure in flood-prone areas.

5. Enhance Extension Services:

   • Improve access to technology, agronomic advice, and other resources through face-to-face, ICT-based, and peer-to-peer methods.

6. Strengthen Infrastructure:

   • On-farm and off-farm storage, warehouses, and transportation infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and manage price volatility.

7. Adopt a Systemic Approach to Pest and Disease Management:

   • Transition from a centralized to a decentralized model.
   • Improve access to affordable and quality pesticides.
   • Enhance application techniques against black pod and capsids/mirids.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening agricultural risk management systems to ensure continued growth and resilience. It highlights the need for a coordinated and comprehensive approach to address the diverse and region-specific nature of agricultural risks. By implementing the recommended interventions, Ghana can improve the stability and sustainability of its agricultural sector, particularly for vulnerable rural communities. The findings are expected to inform policy and investment decisions under METASIP and contribute to long-term agricultural development and food security.