2015年-世界发展银行全球_Paraguay_Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment___Identification_Prioritization_Strategy_and_Action_Plan_164页_4mb

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Paraguay Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive risk assessment of the agricultural sector in Paraguay, focusing on identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing risks, and proposing a strategy and action plan to reduce volatility in agricultural output and incomes, particularly for family farmers.

Main Objectives

Identify and quantify agriculture risks.
Prioritize risks based on their frequency and severity.
Propose solutions to reduce exposure to these risks.
Develop a strategy and action plan to enhance resilience and reduce rural poverty.

Key Risks and Their Impacts

1. Production Risks

Drought is the most significant production risk, especially for soy, maize, and wheat.
- Summer drought affects soy production in commercial farming.
- Winter drought and early frosts affect maize and wheat.
- Recurrent droughts impact family farming crops like sesame, cotton, sugar cane, and vegetables.
- Cassava is relatively drought-tolerant but suffers under severe drought conditions.
Pests and Diseases contribute to production losses, though they are not the main risk.
- Monocropping increases vulnerability to diseases like rust and fungi.
- Agrochemicals and resistant varieties are used to manage these risks, increasing production costs, especially for family farmers.
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) has catastrophic economic consequences.
- It leads to the paralysis of meat exports, causing significant loss of foreign currency and public resources.
- The last outbreaks occurred in 2002 and 2011.
- Current efforts include periodic vaccination and monitoring by SENACSA and Panaftosa.

2. Market Risks

Price Volatility affects both commercial and family farming.
- For soy, prices are influenced by international markets and exchange rate fluctuations.
- For family farming crops like cotton, price volatility can be critical for survival.
- The establishment of an Agriculture Commodity Exchange is proposed to stabilize prices and manage market risks.

3. Enabling Environment Risks

Infrastructure and Technology Deficits hinder agricultural development.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Regulatory Changes affect market access and trade.
- For example, tomato imports from neighboring countries due to exchange rate differentials.
- Argentina's regulatory changes impact soy exports.
- Brazil's erratic policies affect rice exports and the entire supply chain.

Key Commodities and Their Risks

Crop	Main Risk	Impact on Economy	Notes
Soy	Drought, FMD	High	Central to Paraguay’s economy and exports
Maize	Drought, price volatility	High	Important for both commercial and family farming
Wheat	Drought	Medium	Also relevant for family farming
Rice	Regulatory changes	High	Affected by Brazil's import policies
Cassava	Drought	Medium	Main staple for family farms
Cotton	Drought, price volatility	High	Vulnerable to price swings
Sesame	Drought	Medium	High value, but small production volume
Vegetables	Drought	Medium	Seasonal crops, high vulnerability
Sugar Cane	Drought	Medium	High production value, but limited market access

Economic Impacts

Agriculture contributes 30% of GDP and 40% of exports.
In 2011, a significant drop in soy production led to a 28% decline in agriculture GDP and a 3% decline in total GDP.
Annual losses due to unmanaged production risks amount to $237 million or 5.4% of agriculture GDP.
In years with extreme events, losses can reach $1 billion.

Regional Losses

Alto Parana and Canindeyu departments have experienced the highest losses.
Cassava and beans show high variability in availability, affecting rural food security.

Proposed Strategy and Action Plan

1. Risk Management Instruments

Compensation Mechanisms for extreme weather events (e.g., drought).
Agriculture Innovation System to reduce exposure to production risks.
Price Risk Management through an Agriculture Commodity Exchange.

2. Financing Strategy

A financial structure using multiple instruments to cover various risks efficiently.
Focus on financial efficiency, transparency, and ex-post emergency assistance.
Optimization of agricultural insurance is expected to benefit family farming and other sectors.

3. Key Actions

Strengthening of SENACSA for animal health and food safety.
Development of an Agriculture Commodity Exchange to manage price volatility.
Establishment of a coordinating body for family farming risks.
Integration of risk management with existing initiatives like PPR, PRODERS, and others.
Improvement of agroclimatic information sharing between data producers and user institutions.

Cost Estimates

Strategic Line	2014 (US$)	2015 (US$)	2016–19 (US$)	Total (US$)
Sanitary and Food Safety Risks	19,883,660	51,296,167	126,905,167	198,085,001
Agriculture Innovation System	3,105,000	6,726,500	13,541,500	23,373,000
Price Risks and Commodity Exchange	70,000	58,000	-	128,000
Agriculture Risk Financing Strategy	123,400	874,300	1,067,150	2,064,850
Total	-	-	-	223,650,851

Policy Recommendations

Expand control and inspection of slaughterhouses for local consumption.
Approve a new regulatory framework for the agriculture commodity exchange.
Implement incentives for trading and registering physical goods at the exchange.
Establish weather contingency financing mechanisms for family farmers.
Ensure permanent sharing of agroclimatic information between institutions.

Conclusion

The agricultural sector in Paraguay is highly vulnerable to various risks, particularly production and market-related ones. These risks significantly impact economic growth, public finances, and rural poverty. The proposed strategy emphasizes integrated risk management, institutional strengthening, and innovation to reduce these risks and improve resilience. The total estimated cost for the proposed action plan is $223.65 million over five years, which is lower than the annual losses of unmanaged risks. This strategy is expected to make a substantial contribution to poverty reduction and sustainable agricultural development.

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