2016年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_134页_4mb

Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report presents an agricultural sector risk assessment for Tajikistan, conducted by the World Bank Group (WBG) in 2014 as part of a three-country study to improve agricultural risk management at national and regional levels. The assessment outlines the key risks facing the agricultural sector and proposes targeted interventions to enhance resilience and competitiveness.

Main Risks and Their Impacts

1. Natural Disasters

• Impact on Production: Droughts, floods, and locust infestations are the primary natural disaster risks. Drought is the main production risk at the commodity level, with cotton being the most vulnerable crop.
• Historical Data: Natural disasters have caused significant agricultural losses, as documented in historical records from 1985 to 2014.
• Climate Change: Increasing frequency and severity of droughts and floods in the short to medium term, and reduced water availability for irrigation in the long term due to glacial melt.

2. Price Risks

• Volatility: Inter-annual price volatility is a greater source of risk than drought, affecting more commodities and resulting in higher frequency and severity of losses.
• Commodity-Specific Risks: Price shocks affect a wide range of commodities, including wheat, cotton, potatoes, onions, and tomatoes.

3. Enabling Environment Risks

• Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks: Sudden policy changes and unexpected exchange rate movements pose significant risks.
• Public Sector Capacity: Limited capacity and resources in public institutions for ex-ante and ex-post risk management.

Risk Management Framework

• Three Pillars:

  1. Risk Assessment and Management: Technical assistance to evaluate risks and establish improved risk management systems.
  2. Capacity Transfer: Training programs to build expertise in agricultural risk management.
  3. Knowledge and Networks: Production of knowledge products to facilitate dialogue and knowledge exchange among stakeholders.

• Phases of Assessment:

  • Phase I: Identifies, analyzes, quantifies, and prioritizes systemic risks.
  • Phase II: Focuses on solutions and strategies, including technical assistance, investments, and policy support.
  • Phase III: Supports the government in developing a systematic risk management plan, which is not covered in this report.

Key Recommendations

Solutions Area 1: Create Market Opportunities

• Objective: To increase the efficiency and competitiveness of Tajikistan's agricultural sector.
• Interventions:
  • Strengthen market information systems to improve transparency and decision-making.
  • Develop storage and transport infrastructure to reduce price volatility.
  • Promote export corridors to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan to enhance market stability and access to imported inputs.
  • Improve access to market intelligence products for producers to better anticipate and respond to market changes.
  • Enhance the business environment and investment promotion to support downstream investments.

Solutions Area 2: Improve Livestock Productivity

• Objective: To strengthen the resilience of livestock production systems and rangelands.
• Interventions:
  • Implement measures to reverse water and soil degradation and improve vegetation cover.
  • Strengthen livestock services such as veterinary health, feed supply, and fodder production.
  • Ensure sustainable access to grazing lands through community-based pasture management.
  • Develop pasture monitoring and livestock early warning systems (LEWS) to improve climate resilience and emergency preparedness.
  • Promote the development of a feed sector to supply nutritionally balanced livestock feed.
  • Enhance domestic and regional animal health programs to reduce the incidence of trans-boundary diseases.
  • Introduce indexed-based livestock insurance to protect producers against price and production shocks.
  • Implement conditional loans and grants to encourage investment in productivity and risk management.

Prioritization and Costing

• Prioritization: The report emphasizes the need for a clear prioritization of risk management actions, given the limited public resources.
• Costing: Detailed cost estimates are provided for various interventions, including:
  • Community-based pasture management
  • Pasture monitoring and LEWS
  • Feed sector development
  • Animal health programs
  • Livestock insurance initiatives
  • Financial mechanisms such as conditional loans and grants

Conclusion

The report concludes that agricultural risk management in Tajikistan must be integrated into broader sector development and investment strategies. It highlights the importance of both public and private sector involvement in reducing risks and enhancing resilience. The recommendations aim to reduce short and medium-term volatility while improving long-term sector resilience, thus reducing vulnerabilities among all stakeholders and increasing the success of agricultural investment and development initiatives.

Key Tables

• Table ES.1: Summary of the Agriculture Risk Management Action Plan for Tajikistan, outlining main programs, expected outcomes, and monitoring indicators.

Key Figures

• Figure 1: Irrigated areas and mean annual rainfall in Tajikistan.
• Figure 2: Agro-ecological zones in Tajikistan.
• Figure 3: Vulnerability to climate change in Europe and Central Asia.
• Figure 4: Annual mean temperature and precipitation change in Tajikistan, 1950-2000.
• Figure 5: Capacity to adapt to climate change in Europe and Central Asia.
• Figure 6: Implications of climate change for agriculture risk management.
• Figure 7: National and agricultural GDP in Tajikistan, 1993-2012.
• Figure 8: Components of gross agricultural output in Tajikistan, 1992-2012.
• Figure 9: Composition of crops in Tajikistan, 1992-2012.
• Figure 10: Incidence of natural disasters in Tajikistan, 1985-2014.
• Figure 11: Location and risks of major floods in Tajikistan.
• Figure 12: Detection, infestation, and treatment of locusts in Tajikistan.
• Figure 13: Areas most frequently infested by locusts in Tajikistan.
• Figure 14-19: Production trends for key crops in Tajikistan.
• Figure 20-23: Livestock production trends in Tajikistan.
• Figure 24-27: Price trends for agricultural commodities in Tajikistan.
• Figure 28: Nominal exchange rates in Tajikistan, 1994-2013.
• Figure 29: Current expenditure in the agriculture budget of Tajikistan.
• Figure 30-31: Indicative losses in Tajikistan, 1993-2012.
• Figure 32-35: Sector-wide and commodity-specific shocks to production and prices.
• Figure 36: Joint production and price shocks.
• Figure 37-42: Trade and export data for Tajikistan.

Key Boxes

• Box 1: Forecast impact and scale of major droughts in Tajikistan.
• Box 2: The complex disaster of 2008-09.
• Box 3: Innovation to increase investment in agribusiness.
• Box 4: Challenges to establishing a leasing industry for agribusiness: lessons from Armenia.
• Box 5: Stepwise approach to food safety.
• Box 6: Private veterinary clinic and artificial insemination service in Tajikistan.
• Box 7: ARIS in the Kyrgyz Republic.
• Box 8: Payment for environmental services.
• Box 9: Potential PES approaches for Tajikistan.
• Box 10: Innovative weather forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic.
• Box 11: LEWS in Mongolia.
• Box 12: China-Canada livestock health extension services project.
• Box 13: Canada-China feed industry project.
• Box 14: Market information system to facilitate export growth.