2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kenya___Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_138页_3mb

Kenya Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive risk assessment of Kenya's agricultural sector, focusing on production, market, and enabling environment risks, as well as the vulnerability of different stakeholder groups. The study was conducted as part of the World Bank Group's Agricultural Risk Management Team and aims to support the integration of risk management into sector planning and development programs. It covers a 33-year period (1980–2012) and highlights the challenges and opportunities for enhancing agricultural resilience in Kenya.

Main Views

1. Agriculture's Role in Kenya's Economy

• Agriculture is a key driver of economic growth and a vital component of food security and poverty reduction.
• It supports the livelihoods of the majority of the country's poor, who rely on smallholder farming and pastoralism.
• The sector is underperforming relative to its potential, with growth rates below the 6 percent target.

2. Production Risks

• Weather Risks: Erratic rainfall and severe droughts are the primary risks to agricultural production. Droughts have become more frequent, especially in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), reducing recovery time for affected communities.
• Crop Production: Maize, coffee, tea, banana, and dry beans have experienced significant production losses due to adverse weather and pests/diseases.
  • Maize is the most vulnerable crop, with production losses accounting for nearly 20% of total indicative losses.
  • Coffee and tea, though less affected in terms of production value, face major disease threats such as coffee berry disease (CBD), coffee leaf rust (CLR), and maize lethal necrosis disease (MLND).
• Livestock Production: Livestock is particularly vulnerable to diseases such as East Coast fever (ECF), foot and mouth disease (FMD), and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR). These diseases can lead to high mortality rates and significant economic losses, especially during droughts.

3. Market Risks

• Price Volatility: Producer prices for key crops like maize, coffee, and sorghum are subject to high interannual variability.
• Maize Prices: Domestic maize prices are more volatile than international prices, influenced by domestic supply and demand, as well as speculation. The GoK's role in managing cereal markets has created uncertainty for private sector actors.
• Cash Crops: Coffee and tea prices are also volatile, with international market conditions and import/export policies playing a significant role.

4. Enabling Environment Risks

• Cereal Imports: Kenya's growing reliance on cereal imports has increased the country's vulnerability to external pressures, such as changes in international prices and trade policies.
• Tariffs and Restrictions: The 50% ad valorem tariff on non-COMESA maize and the import ban on genetically modified (GM) maize have contributed to market instability.
• Supply Chain Issues: The availability of non-GM exportable maize in the COMESA region is limited, and export bans in neighboring countries (e.g., Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia) have further reduced supply options.

5. Vulnerability Assessment

• Vulnerable Groups: Female-headed households (FHHs), pastoralists, and unskilled wage laborers are particularly vulnerable due to limited access to resources and risk management tools.
• ASALs (Arid and Semi-arid Lands): These regions face the greatest challenges due to extreme weather and limited infrastructure.
• Impact of Poverty: Poor households are more susceptible to the adverse effects of agricultural shocks and have fewer resources to cope with them.

6. Risk Management and Mitigation

• The report outlines a range of risk management measures, including insurance, diversification, improved access to inputs, and market linkages.
• It emphasizes the need for a holistic and systematic approach to risk management to strengthen the resilience of agricultural supply chains and livelihoods.

Key Information

7. Historical Shocks

• Figure ES.1 shows the historical timeline of major agricultural production shocks in Kenya from 1980 to 2012, highlighting the frequency and severity of these events.
• Figure ES.2 presents the estimated losses to aggregate crop production from risk events, totaling nearly $5.10 billion over the 33-year period, with maize accounting for the largest share.

8. Climate Change Impacts

• Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods.
• The report notes that changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, along with increased frost events, are contributing to yield volatility in key crops.

9. Data and Methodologies

• The analysis combines quantitative and qualitative methods, including rainfall and yield regressions, stakeholder interviews, and case studies.
• The study draws on data from FAOSTAT, WDI, and local sources to assess the impact of various risks on the agricultural sector.

10. Recommendations

• The report recommends scaling up livestock insurance, improving climate resilience through research and adaptation programs, and strengthening market linkages for smallholder farmers.
• It calls for a more integrated and proactive approach to risk management, involving public-private partnerships and policy reforms to enhance the sector's ability to withstand shocks.

Conclusion

The study underscores the critical need for enhanced risk management in Kenya's agricultural sector, given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, pests, diseases, and market volatility. It highlights the importance of supporting smallholder farmers and pastoralists with better access to inputs, insurance, and market information to build resilience and ensure food security. The findings serve as a foundation for future risk assessment and management initiatives, aiming to align sector development with the goals of Kenya's Vision 2030.