2015年-世界发展银行全球_Senegal___Agricultural_Sector_Risk_Assessment_114页_3mb

Senegal Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural sector risks in Senegal, highlighting the challenges faced by farmers, livestock producers, and other stakeholders. It assesses production, market, and enabling environment risks and their adverse impacts on the sector. The study emphasizes the need for a targeted and systematic approach to agricultural risk management to enhance resilience and support sustainable growth.

Main Points

Agricultural Sector Overview

• Senegal's agricultural economy contributes about 16% of national GDP, down from 25% in the mid-1980s.
• Despite a 70% increase in sector output over the past 30 years, population growth has quadrupled.
• Government policies have promoted intensification of crop and livestock production, but growth remains lackluster due to limited adoption of improved seeds and fertilizers.
• Smallholder farmers, who dominate production, are highly vulnerable due to limited capacity to manage risks.

Key Risks Identified

Production Risks

• Weather-related risks: Erratic rainfall, drought, and floods are the most significant.
  • Drought is the largest risk, occurring roughly every four years and causing substantial yield and livestock losses.
  • Locust outbreaks are the second most common and costly risk, with impacts on both food and cash crops.
  • Erratic rainfall accounts for about 50% of crop yield reductions, while pests and diseases (notably locusts) account for an additional 25%.
• Pests and Diseases:
  • Major pests include the Senegalese grasshopper, locusts, and birds (mainly quelea finch).
  • Major diseases include Rift Valley fever, highly pathogenic avian influenza, and Newcastle disease.
  • Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) are potential major risks if effective control measures are not implemented.
• Land and Water Management:
  • Limited access to water and land resources due to increasing land pressures and erratic rainfall.
  • Poor implementation of water management practices, such as irrigation systems, exacerbates vulnerability.

Market Risks

• Price Volatility:
  • Staple crop prices are highly variable, with significant ex post impacts on household food security.
  • Cash crops (e.g., cotton, groundnuts) face price volatility due to international and domestic price disparities.
  • Poultry producers are vulnerable to fluctuations in imported feed prices, which make up 80% of their feed.
• Trade and Supply Chain Risks:
  • Processors are vulnerable to market risks due to increased local prices and reduced costs of competing imports.
  • Aflatoxin contamination poses a risk to cotton and groundnut processors.
  • Traders face risks from market uncertainty, including poor knowledge of market volumes and production levels.

Enabling Environment Risks

• Land Tenure and Access:
  • Uncertainty over land tenure and access is a critical risk for pastoralists, especially in the north.
  • Inconsistent policy implementation weakens traditional coping mechanisms.
• Conflict and Security:
  • Conflict in Casamance and northern Mali has led to reduced investment in crop production and increased price volatility.
  • Tensions between herders and crop growers are a growing concern in the northern regions.

Key Findings

• Historical Shocks: Senegal has experienced at least 11 major production shocks since 1980, with an average frequency of every three to four years.
• Aggregate Losses: Over 33 years, the sector lost approximately 4.82 million metric tons of production, valued at $1.40 billion.
• Vulnerability:
  • Nomadic pastoralists are highly vulnerable due to limited mobility and access to grazing and water.
  • Agropastoralists, being among the poorest, exhibit the highest levels of vulnerability.
  • Commercial farmers face similar risks to smallholders but have greater capacity to absorb shocks.
• Climate Change Impacts:
  • Rainfall variability is expected to increase, with potential impacts on crop production.
  • Climate models suggest a trend of increasing rainfall intensity and variability, though the overall impact on production is uncertain.

Risk Management Recommendations

1. Strengthen Extension Delivery Systems:

   • Implement face-to-face, farmer-driven, and ICT-based systems to improve access to technology and agronomic advice, particularly on soil, water, and pest management.
   • Promote conservation agriculture and integrated pest management (IPM).

2. Promote Improved Water Management Measures:

   • Encourage community-led initiatives such as water pans, roof and rock catchment systems, and subsurface dams.
   • Develop microirrigation technologies like drip irrigation to reduce rainfall dependency.

3. Enhance Agricultural Insurance Coverage:

   • Expand access to agricultural insurance to help smallholder farmers manage risks.
   • Focus on developing insurance products that address climate-related and pest-related risks.

4. Improve Policy Implementation and Coordination:

   • Ensure consistent delivery of animal health services, including vaccination, quarantine, and movement policies.
   • Strengthen the Directorate of Civil Protection (DPC) and the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).

5. Support Climate Adaptation Initiatives:

   • Implement the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to address climate change impacts.
   • Promote climate-smart farming practices to enhance resilience and sustainability.

6. Strengthen Market Infrastructure and Information:

   • Improve market information systems to reduce uncertainty for traders and processors.
   • Support market development to stabilize prices and enhance competitiveness.

Conclusion

Senegal's agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to a range of risks, including weather, pests, diseases, and market volatility. The report underscores the need for a more targeted and systematic approach to risk management to support productivity, resilience, and growth. The government is already taking steps to address these risks through capacity-building and policy initiatives, but more needs to be done to ensure the sustainability and stability of the agricultural sector.