2024年10月大宗商品市场展望报告（英）-62页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook for October 2024 provides an analysis of global commodity markets, including energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. It outlines price trends, forecasts, and risks for the period 2024-2026, with a particular emphasis on the evolving dynamics of supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related shocks.

Main Views and Key Information

Commodity Price Trends

• Overall Decline: Commodity prices are expected to fall by 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, following a 3% decline in 2024.
• Aggregate Prices: This would lead to the lowest levels of aggregate commodity prices since 2020, though still 30% above the 2015-19 average.
• Energy Dominance: Energy prices are the primary driver of the decline, with oil prices expected to drop from their 2022 high.
• Regional Variations: Natural gas prices in Europe are expected to remain higher, while U.S. natural gas prices are projected to fall.

Energy Market Analysis

• Oil Prices: Brent crude oil is projected to average $80/bbl in 2024, $73/bbl in 2025, and $72/bbl in 2026.
• Supply and Demand: Global oil supply is expected to increase to 105 mb/d in 2025, with most of the growth coming from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and the U.S. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production cuts, but if they are reversed, oil prices could drop significantly.
• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating conflict in the Middle East could push oil prices higher in the short term, with potential knock-on effects on other commodities.
• Oversupply Risks: If OPEC+ adheres to its production schedule, global oil supply could exceed demand, leading to a significant decline in prices.

Agricultural Market Analysis

• Price Movements: Agricultural prices have been trending lower in 2024 due to solid harvests and favorable weather conditions.
• Forecast: Prices are expected to fall by 4% in 2025 and remain stable in 2026.
• Volatility Sources: Weather-related shocks and trade restrictions have driven prices for cocoa, coffee, and rice to historic highs.
• Food Affordability: The decline in agricultural prices is expected to improve food affordability, especially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).

Metals and Minerals Market Analysis

• Base Metals: Prices are expected to rise slightly in 2025 and decline by 3% in 2026, reflecting moderate industrial activity growth.
• Iron Ore: Prices are forecast to fall further in 2025-26 due to increased supply and weak demand in China's construction sector.
• Precious Metals: Gold prices are expected to remain elevated, driven by strong central bank demand and geopolitical tensions.

Fertilizers Market

• Price Trends: Fertilizer prices have remained stable, supported by continued demand from agriculture and energy sectors.

Special Focus: Commodity Price Synchronization

• New Era?: The report suggests that commodity price synchronization is weakening, with more commodity-specific shocks influencing prices.
• Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, climate change, and trade policies are contributing to this shift in synchronization.

Key Risks

Upside Risks

• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of Middle East conflicts could lead to sharp increases in energy prices, potentially affecting other commodities.
• Stronger GDP Growth: Higher-than-expected growth in China and the U.S. could boost commodity demand, pushing prices up.
• Extreme Weather Events: Climate-related disruptions could lead to supply shocks, particularly in agriculture and energy, increasing prices.

Downside Risks

• Increased Oil Supply: If OPEC+ reverses its production cuts, oil prices could fall significantly, dragging down overall commodity prices.
• Weaker Industrial Activity: Slower global industrial growth, especially in China, could dampen demand for industrial commodities.
• Climate Shocks: Adverse weather conditions could reduce yields and labor productivity, leading to price increases.

Forecast Summary

• Commodity Price Index: The World Bank commodity price index is projected to decline by 5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.
• Energy Forecast: The energy price index is expected to fall by 6% in 2024, 6% in 2025, and 2% in 2026.
• Agricultural Forecast: Agricultural prices are expected to fall by 4% in 2025 and remain stable in 2026.
• Metals Forecast: Base metals prices are expected to rise slightly in 2025 and fall by 3% in 2026.
• Precious Metals Forecast: Gold prices are expected to remain at record levels due to sustained demand.

Data and Sources

• Data Cutoff: The data used in this report was last updated on October 21, 2024.
• Sources: Bloomberg, International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Gold Council, and World Bank.
• License: This report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.

Access and Contact

• Report Access: www.worldbank.org/commodities
• Contact: For inquiries, email: commodities@worldbank.org

Conclusion

The report highlights a shift in commodity market dynamics, with prices expected to decline in the coming years due to improving supply conditions and slowing global demand. However, the outlook is subject to significant risks, including geopolitical tensions and climate-related shocks, which could push prices higher. The World Bank emphasizes the importance of monitoring these risks and their potential impacts on global markets.