2018-大宗商品市场展望（英文版）-12mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global commodity markets for the period up to October 2018, focusing on energy, agriculture, metals, and minerals. It highlights the factors influencing commodity prices and outlines the outlook for 2018 and 2019, including price forecasts and the impact of trade policies and sanctions.

Main Points

1. Commodity Market Developments in Q3 2018

• Energy prices increased by 3% in Q3 2018 (q/q), driven by geopolitical tensions (U.S. sanctions on Iran and production declines in Venezuela).
• Metals prices fell by nearly 10% in Q3 2018, due to weaker global demand and trade disputes.
• Agricultural prices declined by 7%, the largest quarterly drop since 2011 Q4, attributed to strong supplies, trade tensions, and EMDE currency depreciations.

2. Price Forecasts for 2018 and 2019

• Energy prices are expected to rise by 33% in 2018 and stabilize in 2019.
• Non-energy prices are projected to be roughly stable, with a slight gain of under 2% in 2018 and an additional 1% in 2019.
• Agricultural prices are forecast to increase by nearly 2% in 2019 due to rising input costs.
• Metals prices are expected to rise by 5% in 2018 and stabilize in 2019, though at slightly lower levels than previously expected.

3. Impact of Trade Tensions and Tariffs

• Trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, have had a significant impact on commodity markets.
• Commodity-specific tariffs have led to widening price differentials and trade diversion.
• Broad-based tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, reduced trade volumes, and affected economic growth, leading to declines in commodity prices.

4. Role of China in Commodity Demand

• China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, especially for metals and coal, over the past 20 years.
• As China's economy matures, its demand for commodities is expected to plateau, which may slow global commodity demand growth.
• Other EMDEs are unlikely to fill this demand gap, emphasizing the need for economic diversification and policy improvements in these economies.

Key Information

1. Commodity Price Trends

• Energy prices rose significantly, with oil prices fluctuating between $70 and $86 per barrel in Q3 2018.
• Coal and natural gas prices were supported by strong electricity demand in Europe and Asia.
• Agricultural prices saw a large decline, particularly in soybeans and other oilseeds, due to trade tensions and surplus supply.
• Metals prices fell sharply, especially due to the U.S.-China trade dispute, though some were supported by supply constraints and environmental policies.

2. Risks and Outlook

• Energy prices are vulnerable to short-term risks, such as reduced spare capacity, but are expected to stabilize in 2019.
• Metals prices face downside risks from worsening trade tensions and weaker global growth, while upside risks include policy stimulus in China and tighter production constraints.
• Agricultural prices are at risk from escalating trade tensions, but may rise in 2019 due to higher input costs.
• The outlook is sensitive to policy changes, with potential for moderate price moderation in the medium term.

3. Data and Sources

• The report uses data from Bloomberg, BP Statistical Review, IEA, USDA, and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics.
• Price forecasts are based on historical data and economic trends up to October 25, 2018.
• Commodity price data updates are published monthly.

4. Special Focus: Changing of the Guard

• The report highlights the shift in commodity demand from China to other EMDEs.
• China's growing economic maturity and structural changes are expected to reduce its reliance on commodities.
• Other EMDEs are not expected to replicate China's demand growth, which may lead to slower global commodity demand growth.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1 shows the change in commodity price indexes and the impact of trade tensions.
• Figure B.1 illustrates global soybean supply and demand, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Table 1 provides nominal price indexes and forecast revisions for various commodity groups, showing significant upward revisions for energy and modest changes for non-energy commodities.

Conclusion

The report concludes that both commodity-specific and broad-based tariffs have had a material impact on commodity markets, with significant effects on trade flows and price differentials. It underscores the importance of China in driving global commodity demand and the potential for a slowdown in this trend as the country’s economy evolves. The outlook for commodity prices remains uncertain, with risks from trade tensions and policy changes affecting market stability.