大宗商品市场展望（英文）-世界银行-2018年4月-82页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2018 Summary

Core Content

The April 2018 Commodity Markets Outlook report by the World Bank provides an analysis of global commodity markets, focusing on energy, agriculture, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. It also highlights the challenges and policy responses of oil-exporting countries following the 2014 oil price collapse.

Main Points

• Commodity Price Trends (2018 Q1):

  • Commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018.
  • Oil prices rose 10 percent (q/q) to an average of $64.6/bbl.
  • Precious metals prices increased by 4 percent, driven by inflation expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks.
  • Metals prices are expected to rise by 9 percent in 2018, with nickel prices remaining 30 percent higher than in 2017.
  • Agricultural prices increased by 4 percent, the largest quarterly rise in two years, due to lower plantings and La Niña effects.
  • Non-energy commodities rose by 4 percent (q/q) in the first quarter of 2018.

• Outlook for 2018 and 2019:

  • Energy prices are forecast to rise by 20 percent in 2018 and stabilize in 2019.
  • Non-energy prices are expected to increase by more than 4 percent in 2018, followed by stabilization in 2019.
  • Agricultural prices are projected to rise by 2.2 percent in 2018 and 1.3 percent in 2019.
  • Upside risks include geopolitical tensions, potential supply losses, and production shortages.
  • Downside risks include slower growth, easing of pollution-related policies, and reintroduction of idle capacity in China.

• Policy Actions and Risks:

  • Additional tariffs and sanctions could affect commodity prices in the short-term.
  • The report emphasizes the importance of economic diversification, monetary policy flexibility, and fiscal buffer strength for oil-exporting countries.

Key Information

Oil Exporters: Policies and Challenges

• Oil prices fell by 70 percent between mid-2014 and early 2016, the third-largest drop in recent history.
• Despite some recovery, oil prices are still 40 percent below their 2011-14 average.
• Impact on Oil Exporting Economies:
  • Nearly 70 percent of oil-exporting EMDEs experienced slowing growth in 2015-2016.
  • Private consumption and investment saw sharp declines.
• Recovery Factors:
  • Countries with flexible exchange rate regimes and diversified economies (e.g., Malaysia, Qatar) recovered more quickly.
  • Large foreign exchange reserves and stable inflation improved resilience.
  • Income inequality and political instability hindered some economies' ability to adapt to lower oil prices.

Monetary Policy Responses

• Many oil-exporting EMDEs faced currency depreciation and declining foreign reserves in 2014-2016.
• Floating exchange rate regimes allowed for better stabilization of reserves, but also led to sharper initial depreciation.
• Central banks used sovereign wealth and pension funds to reduce liquidity pressures.
• Targeting export prices, GDP deflators, or nominal GDP is suggested for countries with flexible regimes to enhance resilience.
• Currency pegs may benefit from including oil prices in targeted currency baskets, especially for small open economies.

Fiscal Policy Responses

• Fiscal consolidation was widespread among oil-exporting EMDEs to realign spending with revenues.
• Fiscal sustainability gaps widened in 2015-2016, with government debt ratios rising by 11.4 percentage points.
• Fiscal rules to smooth oil price cycles are lacking in most oil-exporting EMDEs.
• Tax reforms were implemented in several countries to compensate for lost revenues and reduce energy subsidies.
• Spending and subsidies are increasingly being linked to revenue levels to improve fiscal sustainability.

Reforms and Diversification

• The collapse in oil prices prompted energy subsidy reforms in many oil-exporting countries.
• Structural reforms to reduce reliance on oil include:
  • Reducing labor market rigidities (e.g., Oman, Saudi Arabia).
  • Supporting foreign investment (e.g., Saudi Arabia).
  • Expanding infrastructure investment (e.g., Malaysia).
  • Improving the business environment (e.g., Algeria, Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kazakhstan, Nigeria).
• However, some reform agendas faced legislative delays or were scaled back due to easing fiscal pressures.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while some oil-exporting countries have managed the price slump better than others, most still face significant policy challenges. The need for economic diversification, stronger fiscal frameworks, and more resilient monetary policies is emphasized as crucial for long-term stability and growth. The experience of the past four years highlights the importance of policy adaptability and structural reform in response to volatile commodity markets.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure F1: Oil price (average of Brent, Dubai, and WTI).
• Figure F2: GDP changes since 2014, by group.
• Figure F3: Exchange rate pressures since 2014.
• Figure F4: Change in fiscal balance since 2014.
• Figure F5: Reforms in oil exporters.
• Figure F6: Export concentration, 2016.
• Figure F7: Growth response to contractions.
• Figure F8: Oil prices, history and forecasts.
• Table 1: Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions.

Data and Access

• The report includes price forecasts to 2030 for 46 commodities.
• Historical price data is also provided.
• Production, consumption, and trade statistics are detailed.
• The report and data can be accessed at: www.worldbank.org/commodities.
• Data cutoff: April 20, 2018.

Acknowledgments

• The report was authored by Marc Stocker and John Baffes for the Special Focus on oil exporters.
• Shane Streifel contributed to the energy, fertilizers, metals, and precious metals sections.
• Xinghao Gong managed the report's database.
• Maria Hazel Macadandang oversaw the design and production.
• The report was reviewed by several experts, including Betty Dow, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Peter Stephen Oliver Nagle.

Rights and Permissions

• The report is under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO license.
• Translation and adaptation of the report must include disclaimers.
• Third-party content usage requires permission from the respective copyright holders.

Summary of Key Trends

• Global GDP growth increased to 3.1 percent in 2017 from 2.4 percent in 2016.
• Production restraint by OPEC and non-OPEC producers contributed to inventory reductions in late 2017.
• Geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russian producers had a positive impact on aluminum and nickel prices.
• China's measures to reduce pollution and U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel caused sharp price movements in metals.
• Fertilizer prices rose, with grain supply growth and soybean production affecting agricultural markets.

Notes

• The report includes Appendices with historical price data, supply-demand balances, and price series descriptions.
• The cutoff date for data is April 20, 2018.
• Commodity price updates are published monthly at the beginning of each month.