公用事业：装机放缓后，中长期如何看待水电的投资价值？-20240120-天风证券-31页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Performance: The hydropower sector delivered a 163.1% relative return to the broader market in 2023, driven by favorable water conditions and high dividend yields, which supported performance during market downturns.
Water Storage and Generation: End-of-flood-season water storage was better than average in 2023. Key companies faced generation declines in Q2 due to below-average inflows, but Q3 saw improvements, with profit declines less severe in key quarters.
Electricity Pricing: Annual trading prices in key receiving provinces like Jiangsu had limited impact on hydropower exporters, with price advantages maintained in cross-province transmission; for instance, impacts on Yalongjiang Hydro's profits were estimated at around 1.6 billion yuan.

Favorable water storage levels support projected higher generation volumes for 2024. Cautions about electricity price volatility are easing as annual trading prices are finalized, potentially stabilizing earnings.
Factors for performance: Improved inflows from good water storage, combined with clearer pricing mechanisms, could boost profitability.

Depreciation Benefits: Depreciation on hydroelectric assets offers significant near-term savings by reducing costs, leading to profit boosts—e.g.,长江电力 could save 8.08 billion yuan by 2030, a substantial portion of current profits.
Electricity Price Trends: Domestic electricity prices in hydropower-heavy provinces like Sichuan and Yunnan may continue rising due to supply-demand imbalances, while cross-province transmission preserves cost advantages and benefits from cleaner energy policies.

Uses dividend yield method tied to interest rate differentials, with a target implied yield of 326% based on 2024 assumptions (10-year Treasury yield of 2.5% plus 76 basis points).
Market valuation suggests a target price range of 29.86-30.8 yuan by 2024, representing potential upside of 265-305% from current levels.

Recommend focus on leading firms such as China Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, Huanne Power, and ChuanTou Energy for exposure to favorable growth drivers.
Key risks include hydrological conditions, slower-than-expected investment, electricity price changes, and model uncertainties; therefore, maintain a cautious approach given potential revenue volatility.

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