世界银行-乌克兰-第三次快速损失和需求评估（RDNA3），2022年2月至2023年12月（英）-191页_2mb

Ukraine: Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) Summary

Core Content

The Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) of Ukraine, conducted between February 2022 and December 2023, provides a comprehensive overview of the war's impact and the recovery and reconstruction needs for the country. This assessment was jointly prepared by the World Bank, Government of Ukraine (GoU), European Union (EU), and United Nations (UN), in collaboration with various partners, including academia, civil society, and the private sector.

The report estimates that direct damage reached US$152 billion as of December 31, 2023, with housing, transport, commerce and industry, agriculture, and energy being the most affected sectors. Total economic losses are estimated at US$499 billion, reflecting both the disruption of economic activity and additional war-related costs. The total recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated at US$486 billion for a 10-year period, incorporating both short-term and long-term priorities.

Main Viewpoints

• War Impact: The war has caused significant civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. As of October 2023, 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were reported, and over 10,000 civilians lost their lives since the invasion.

• Economic and Social Consequences: The war has led to increased poverty and food insecurity, with 9% of households in Ukraine reporting running out of food in November 2023. Loss of jobs and income has been particularly severe in the private sector, and purchasing power and assets have been significantly reduced, especially among vulnerable groups.

• Humanitarian and Social Needs: The assessment highlights the uneven impact of the war, with women, children, youth, elderly, and persons with disabilities being disproportionately affected. Displacement and returnee support, child protection, and healthcare access are key areas of concern.

• Recovery and Reconstruction Efforts: The GoU has been actively working on recovery and reconstruction, supported by international partners. In 2023, US$7.2 billion was allocated for urgent recovery projects, including energy, infrastructure, housing, and demining. Over 3,836 multifamily buildings and 19,091 single-family houses were restored, along with 448 schools, 237 kindergartens, and 390 medical facilities.

• Financing Gap: A US$9.5 billion financing gap for 2024 is identified by Ukrainian authorities, with US$15 billion in priorities. Key areas include industry and services (US$3.6 billion), housing and utilities (US$3.1 billion), energy (US$2.7 billion), social infrastructure (US$2.4 billion), and transport (US$2.3 billion), along with US$1.2 billion for cross-sectoral priorities.

• Private Sector Role: The report emphasizes the importance of the private sector in recovery and reconstruction, noting that public expenditures can catalyze up to US$5.5 billion in private investment.

• Reforms and Integration: The GoU is pursuing an ambitious reform agenda aligned with EU integration, including the Ukraine Plan and the Ukraine Facility. These initiatives aim to strengthen institutional and absorptive capacities for recovery and long-term development.

Key Information

• RDNA3 Methodology: The assessment is based on validated and transparent data, using a globally accepted methodology. It updates the previous assessments (RDNA1 and RDNA2) and provides a consistent view of the war's impact over time.

• Data Limitations: The report acknowledges data limitations and assumptions due to the ongoing conflict, particularly in areas like explosive ordnance contamination and unpredictable attack patterns.

• Sectoral Priorities: The estimated recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2024 are categorized across various sectors, including social sectors (housing, education, health), productive sectors (agriculture, industry), and infrastructure sectors (energy, transport, water supply).

• Long-term Vision: The findings are aligned with Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), emphasizing inclusive and equitable development, climate resilience, and low-carbon recovery.

Summary of Impacts and Needs

• Total Damage: US$152 billion
• Total Losses: US$499 billion
• Total Recovery and Reconstruction Needs: US$486 billion

Recovery and Reconstruction Priorities

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Spatial evolution of the war until December 31, 2023
• Figure 2: Extent of damage by region (February 2023 vs. December 2023)
• Figure 3: Comparison of damage in RDNA2 and RDNA3
• Figure 4: Comparison of needs in RDNA2 and RDNA3
• Figure 5: Summary of RDNA3 recovery and reconstruction priorities and funding needs
• Figure 6: RDNA3 key results: damage, needs, and 2024 financing priorities
• Figure 7: Comparison of damage, loss, and needs for RDNA2 and RDNA3
• Figure 22: Ukraine real GDP growth, year-on-year (YoY)

Conclusion

The RDNA3 underscores the profound and lasting impact of the war on Ukraine, highlighting the need for a sustained and coordinated recovery and reconstruction effort. It provides a roadmap for future financing and policy decisions, emphasizing the importance of strategic prioritization, institutional capacity building, and private sector engagement in achieving a resilient and sustainable recovery.