2024-03-07-世界银行-乌克兰_191页_2mb

Summary of the Third Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3)

Core Content

The Third Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3), conducted from February 2022 to December 2023, provides a comprehensive overview of the war's impacts and recovery needs. It was jointly prepared by the World Bank, the Government of Ukraine (GoU), the European Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN), in collaboration with various partners, including academia, civil society, and the private sector. The assessment includes both qualitative and quantitative data on damage, loss, and recovery needs across multiple sectors and regions.

Main Objectives and Methodology

• Objective: To estimate the total damage, loss, and recovery and reconstruction needs for Ukraine over a 10-year period, as of December 31, 2023.
• Methodology: RDNA3 follows a globally accepted methodology, integrating the most recent data, avoiding double-counting, and deducting needs already met through state budget or international support. It also includes a qualitative analysis of how the war has affected people's lives.

Key Findings

Total Damage and Losses

• Direct damage: US$152 billion (as of December 31, 2023)
• Economic loss: Over US$499 billion (including disruptions to economic flows, production, and additional war-related costs)
• Recovery and reconstruction needs: US$486 billion (over a 10-year period)

Sectoral Impact

The most affected sectors are:

• Housing
• Transport
• Commerce and Industry
• Agriculture
• Energy

Damage is concentrated in Donetsk, Kharkivska, Luhanska, Zaporizka, Khersonska, and Kyivska oblasts.

Human Impact

• Refugees: 5.9 million across Europe
• Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): 3.7 million as of October 2023
• Civilian casualties: Over 10,000 deaths and thousands injured
• Housing loss: Millions of homes destroyed or damaged
• Poverty and food insecurity: Increased significantly, with 9% of households reporting food shortages in November 2023

The war has had disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups, including:

• Women
• Persons with disabilities
• Children and youth
• IDPs
• Elderly

Recovery and Reconstruction Priorities

Ukrainian authorities have identified several key sectors for recovery and reconstruction in 2024:

• Industry and services: US$3.6 billion
• Housing and utilities: US$3.1 billion
• Energy: US$2.7 billion
• Social infrastructure and services: US$2.4 billion
• Transport: US$2.3 billion
• Cross-sectoral priorities: US$1.2 billion

Total financing needs for 2024 are estimated at US$9.5 billion, with US$8.2 billion required for public and state-owned company investments and US$7 billion for other public expenditures.

Private Sector Role

The report highlights the importance of the private sector in supporting recovery and reconstruction. Public expenditure is expected to catalyze up to US$5.5 billion in private investment.

Key Principles and Opportunities

The RDNA3 aligns with the "build(ing) back better" (BBB) principle, emphasizing:

• Modernization and low-carbon development
• Climate resilience
• Inclusive and equitable human development

These principles are in line with the Ukraine Plan and the Ukraine Facility (planned by the EU), as well as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Agenda 2030.

Institutional and Strategic Support

• The GoU, supported by partners, has implemented institutional reforms and improved planning and implementation mechanisms for recovery and reconstruction.
• The Reforms Delivery Office (RDO) and ProSteer Office under the Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development (MCTID) played key roles in the assessment.
• The Ukraine Plan aims to scale up absorptive and institutional capacities, identify investment priorities, and provide financing availability for recovery and reconstruction.

Limitations and Assumptions

• The assessment is subject to data limitations and assumptions due to the ongoing war.
• Total needs and priorities are presented at the sector level without considering strategic cross-sectoral prioritization.
• Some areas remain under-researched due to access issues and the dynamic nature of the conflict.

Conclusion

The RDNA3 underscores the extensive and long-term impacts of the war on Ukraine's economy, infrastructure, and population. It serves as a critical tool for guiding recovery and reconstruction efforts, highlighting the importance of public-private partnerships and institutional reforms. The findings support the development of a comprehensive financial and operational strategy for Ukraine's early recovery and long-term reconstruction.