世界银行-2023年利比亚风暴和洪水：快速损失和需求评估（英）-205页_15mb

Libya Storm and Flooding 2023: Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment Summary

Core Content

The Libya Storm and Flooding 2023 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) was conducted by the World Bank Group, the United Nations, and the European Union in the aftermath of the catastrophic floods that hit eastern Libya between September 10 and 11, 2023. The assessment aimed to evaluate the impacts of the disaster on physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery, and to provide a preliminary estimate of reconstruction and recovery needs in the short- and medium-term. It also sought to inform Libyan stakeholders and the international community about the scale of the disaster and its implications.

Main Objectives

• Assess the impact of the storm and flooding on physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery.
• Conduct a preliminary estimate of infrastructure reconstruction and service delivery restoration needs.
• Inform Libyan stakeholders and the international community of the disaster's impact.

Methodology

The RDNA relied primarily on remote data sources, including:

• Satellite imagery with 50 cm resolution
• Social media analytics
• Anonymized cellphone data
• Night lights data
• Publicly available information

Where possible, the data was corroborated with ground-based information and consultations with development partners. The methodology was adapted from the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) framework, jointly developed by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union.

Key Findings

Total Damages, Losses, and Needs

• Total Damages: $1.0 billion
• Total Losses: $0.6 billion
• Total Needs: $1.8 billion

These figures represent the economic and human impact of the disaster, with the highest damages and losses concentrated in the Derna area due to the failure of two dams.

Sectoral Impacts

Macroeconomic Impact

• The GDP loss was estimated based on the impact on 20 municipalities.
• The economic losses were calculated as the disruptions to the economy caused by the temporary absence of damaged assets.
• The forecast indicates potential inflationary pressures and reduced household consumption in the short to medium term.

Distribution of Effects and Needs

• The most severe impacts were observed in Derna, Soussa, Al Bayda, Al Marj, and Shahhat.
• The sectoral distribution of damage and needs was analyzed, with the highest needs in social and infrastructure sectors.
• The geographic scope included 20 municipalities, with 5 cities receiving in-depth analysis.

Key Challenges and Limitations

• Scarcity of reliable ground data was a major challenge.
• The assessment was based on remote data and triangulation with other sources.
• Data accuracy was improved through publicly available ground-based data and consultations with partners.

Cross-Cutting Sectors

• Governance: The assessment highlights the importance of strengthening public institutions and improving disaster risk management.
• Environment: The disaster caused significant environmental damage, including soil erosion and water pollution.
• Social Sustainability and Inclusion: There is a need to ensure equitable recovery and support for vulnerable groups, including women and displaced populations.
• Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management: The assessment underscores the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change.

Forward Look and Recommendations

• The report emphasizes the importance of building back better (BBB) and resilience-building.
• It suggests coordinated recovery programs across sectors and the establishment of a national platform for disaster response.
• International cooperation and multi-donor support are highlighted as critical for the recovery process.

Key Partners and Contributors

• World Bank: Led by Ayaz Parvez and Dina Ranarifidy.
• United Nations: Provided data and analysis from various agencies, including OCHA, WHO, UNICEF, FAO, and UN-Habitat.
• European Union: Supported through the Copernicus program and the Recovery Observatory team.
• Technical Support: Provided by the Netherlands Embassy, Netherlands Enterprise Agency, and Arcadis expert team.

Conclusion

The Libya Storm and Flooding 2023 report is a comprehensive and rapid assessment that aims to guide recovery and reconstruction efforts. It highlights the scale of the disaster, the sectoral and geographic distribution of damage, and the urgent needs for recovery. The report also emphasizes the importance of international collaboration, data triangulation, and systematic recovery planning to ensure sustainable and resilient development in the affected regions.