世界银行-乌克兰第四次快速损失和需求评估（RDNA4）_2022年2月至2024年12月（英）_202页_3mb

Ukraine: Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) Summary

Core Content

The Fourth Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4), conducted from February 2022 to December 2024, provides a comprehensive overview of the physical, economic, and social impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It outlines the recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2025 and highlights the need for continued international support and strategic planning to address the vast scale of damage and needs.

Main Objectives and Methodology

RDNA4 aims to estimate the total damage, loss, and recovery needs across Ukraine's sectors, including both investment projects and non-investment programs. It is based on data collected over three years of the conflict, with a focus on quantifying the economic and social consequences and identifying key areas for recovery and reconstruction. The assessment is conducted in collaboration with the World Bank Group, the Government of Ukraine (GoU), the European Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN), with input from humanitarian and development partners, academia, and the private sector.

Key Findings

• Total Damage (as of December 31, 2024): US$176 billion
• Total Loss (as of December 31, 2024): US$589 billion
• Total Recovery and Reconstruction Needs (2025–2034): US$524 billion
• Registered IDPs (as of December 31, 2024): 4,642,735
• Refugees in Europe (as of December 31, 2024): 6.2 million
• Poverty Rates (2021–2023): Rose from 20.6% to 35.5%
• Food Insecurity (as of January 2025): 15% of the population (nearly 5 million people)

The damage is primarily concentrated in the housing, energy and extractives, transport, commerce and industry, and agriculture sectors. The energy sector has seen a significant increase in damage since RDNA3, with the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power plant in June 2023 having severe environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Recovery and Reconstruction Priorities (2025)

The RDNA4 outlines nine sectoral priority areas for recovery and reconstruction in 2025, grouped into three categories:

1. Social Sector: Includes housing, education, health, and social protection.
2. Infrastructure Reconstruction: Focuses on energy, transport, water, and municipal services.
3. Demining and Civil Protection: Addresses explosive hazards and emergency response.

Total 2025 Priorities

• Public Investment Projects: US$11.88 billion
• Non-Investment Programs: US$5.44 billion
• Total 2025 Needs: US$17.32 billion
• Financing Secured: US$5.46 billion (for investment projects) and US$1.91 billion (for non-investment programs)
• Financing Gaps:
  • Investment Projects: US$6.43 billion
  • Non-Investment Programs: US$3.53 billion

Strategic Considerations

• The RDNA4 emphasizes the importance of a phased approach and strategic prioritization to ensure efficient use of resources and long-term resilience.
• Building Back Better (BBB) principles are central to the recovery and reconstruction strategy, aiming for modern, low-carbon, and resilient infrastructure.
• Strengthening public sector capacity and institutional frameworks is critical to absorbing and utilizing available funding.
• The Ukraine Plan and Ukraine Facility are key instruments guiding the recovery efforts, with alignment to EU acquis and sustainable development goals.

Human Impact Assessment

The invasion has had profound effects on the population, particularly on the following groups:

• Displaced Persons and Returnees: Over 4.6 million officially registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of December 31, 2024.
• Older Persons: Vulnerable to economic and health impacts due to limited access to social services and higher healthcare costs.
• Persons with Disabilities: Face significant challenges in accessing services and support, with increased needs for rehabilitation and social assistance.
• Youth (14–35 years): Disproportionately affected by job and income losses, with limited access to education and training opportunities.
• War Veterans and Their Families: Experience long-term economic and social consequences due to war-related injuries and loss of livelihoods.
• Gender-Specific Impacts: Women are disproportionately affected by displacement, violence, and economic disruption, with increased vulnerability to gender-based violence (GBV).

Sectoral Needs

Social Sectors

• Housing: Estimated needs of US$12.8 billion, with significant damage in eastern and southern regions.
• Education and Science: Needs of US$2.5 billion, with disruption affecting learning and research.
• Health: Needs of US$3.4 billion, including damage to medical facilities and increased health risks.
• Social Protection and Livelihoods: Needs of US$2.6 billion, focusing on support for vulnerable groups.

Productive Sectors

• Agriculture: Needs of US$12.6 billion, with damage to farmland and infrastructure.
• Irrigation and Water Resources: Needs of US$11.2 billion, due to contamination and destruction of water systems.
• Commerce and Industry: Needs of US$13.1 billion, with significant disruption to business operations.
• Finance and Banking: Needs of US$14.1 billion, including recovery of financial institutions and regulatory systems.

Infrastructure Sectors

• Energy and Extractives: Needs of US$15.1 billion, with damage to power plants and energy networks.
• Transport: Needs of US$15.2 billion, including damage to roads, railways, and airports.
• Telecommunications, Digital, and Media: Needs of US$15.9 billion, with disruption to communication networks and digital infrastructure.
• Water Supply and Sanitation: Needs of US$16.9 billion, due to contamination and infrastructure damage.
• Municipal Services: Needs of US$17.5 billion, with damage to local governance and public services.

Cross-Cutting Areas

• Environment, Natural Resource Management, and Forestry: Needs of US$17.6 billion, with environmental degradation and contamination of land.
• Emergency Response and Civil Protection: Needs of US$18.5 billion, including demining and hazard management.
• Justice and Public Administration: Needs of US$18.9 billion, with disruptions to legal and administrative systems.

Recommendations

• Strengthen the prioritization process to ensure efficient allocation of resources.
• Enhance public sector absorptive capacity to manage and utilize available financing.
• Promote private sector participation through enabling reforms, risk mitigation, and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
• Continue monitoring and verification of damage and needs to ensure accurate data.
• Focus on long-term resilience and sustainability in recovery and reconstruction efforts, in line with the BBB and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Conclusion

RDNA4 underscores the immense scale of damage and needs resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and highlights the importance of a coordinated, strategic, and inclusive approach to recovery and reconstruction. The assessment serves as a critical reference for international partners, the Ukrainian government, and other stakeholders in planning and implementing long-term development and reform strategies.