2025-03-16-世界银行-乌克兰第四次快速损失和需求评估（RDNA4）_2022年2月至2024年12月（英）_202页_3mb

Summary of the Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) for Ukraine

Core Content

The Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) for Ukraine, conducted from February 2022 to December 2024, provides a comprehensive overview of the physical, socioeconomic, and environmental impacts of Russia's invasion and outlines the recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2025. This assessment was jointly prepared by the World Bank Group, the Government of Ukraine (GoU), the European Union (EU), and the United Nations (UN), with support from various humanitarian and development partners, academia, civil society organizations, and the private sector.

Main Objectives and Methodology

• Objective: To estimate the damage, loss, and recovery needs across various sectors and identify priorities for 2025.
• Methodology: The assessment builds on previous RDNAs (RDNA1, RDNA2, RDNA3), incorporating updated data and analysis to reflect the evolving situation since the invasion began. It includes both investment projects and non-investment programs, emphasizing strategic prioritization and the concept of build(ing) back better (BBB).

Key Findings

Total Damage and Losses

• Direct Damage: As of December 31, 2024, direct damage is estimated at US$176 billion.
• Total Losses: Estimated total losses amount to US$589 billion, reflecting the economic disruptions and additional costs such as debris management.
• Recovery and Reconstruction Needs: The total estimated needs for the next decade are US$524 billion, covering both public and private sectors.

Sectoral Impact

• Most Affected Sectors: Housing, energy and extractives, transport, commerce and industry, and agriculture.
• Energy Sector: There was a significant increase in damage and loss compared to RDNA3, indicating the ongoing destruction despite recovery efforts.
• Human Impact: The invasion has led to civilian casualties, displacement, and increased poverty and food insecurity. Over 12,456 people have been killed, and more than 28,000 have been injured. Over 4.6 million people have been officially registered as internally displaced persons (IDPs).

Poverty and Food Insecurity

• Poverty Increase: Poverty rates rose from 20.6% to 35.5% between 2021 and 2023.
• Food Insecurity: As of January 2025, 15% of the population, or nearly 5 million people, is estimated to be food insecure.

2025 Recovery and Reconstruction Priorities

• Total Priorities: US$17.32 billion, including:
  • Public Investment Projects: US$11.88 billion
  • Non-Investment Programs: US$5.44 billion
• Financing Gap:
  • Public Investment Projects: US$6.43 billion
  • Non-Investment Programs: US$3.53 billion
• Priority Areas: The priorities are grouped into three categories:
  1. Social Sector: Includes housing, education, health, and social protection.
  2. Infrastructure Reconstruction: Focuses on energy, transport, water supply, and sanitation.
  3. Demining and Civil Protection: Addresses explosive hazards and emergency response.

Strategic Considerations

• Building Back Better (BBB): The priorities align with the vision of the Ukraine Plan and the EU Ukraine Facility, aiming for a modern, low-carbon, and resilient Ukraine.
• Reforms and Institutional Capacity: The assessment highlights the need for continued reform efforts to enhance Ukraine's absorptive and institutional capacity for managing recovery and reconstruction.
• Private Sector Role: The private sector has played a significant role, and its contributions are expected to cover at least a third of the total needs, provided that enabling reforms and risk mitigation instruments are in place.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen Prioritization Process: The report recommends improving the prioritization process through better coordination and data collection.
• Enhance Absorptive Capacity: Institutional and technical capacity development is essential to ensure efficient and effective implementation of projects.
• Leverage Private Investment: Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and structural reforms are necessary to maximize private sector involvement.

Cross-Cutting Areas

• Environmental and Natural Resource Management: Includes land contamination, water resources, and sustainable development.
• Emergency Response and Civil Protection: Focuses on managing explosive hazards and enhancing preparedness.
• Justice and Public Administration: Aims to strengthen governance and administrative capacity.

Conclusion

The RDNA4 underscores the extensive damage and loss caused by the invasion and the urgent need for recovery and reconstruction. It emphasizes the importance of a coordinated, strategic approach involving all stakeholders, including the government, international partners, and the private sector, to achieve a resilient and sustainable future for Ukraine.