世界银行-黎巴嫩快速损失和需求评估（RDNA）（英）-2025.3_94页_13mb

Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) - March 2025

Core Content Summary

The Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) conducted by the World Bank at the request of the Government of Lebanon, in collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research - Lebanon (CNRS-L), provides an overview of the physical damage, economic losses, and recovery and reconstruction needs resulting from the 2023-2024 conflict.

Key Facts

• Total Physical Damage: US$6.8 billion
• Total Economic Losses: US$7.2 billion
• Total Recovery and Reconstruction Needs: US$11 billion
• Immediate and Short-Term Needs: US$8.4 billion (2025-2027)
• Medium-Term Needs: US$2.6 billion (2028-2030)

Sectoral Impact

The assessment covers 10 sectors, including:

1. Agriculture & Food Security
2. Commerce, Industry & Tourism
3. Education
4. Environment & Debris Management
5. Energy
6. Health
7. Housing
8. Municipal & Public Services
9. Transport
10. Water, Wastewater & Irrigation

Damage and Losses by Sector

• Housing: Highest damage (US$4.6 billion, 67% of total), followed by infrastructure sectors.
• Commerce, Industry & Tourism: Highest economic losses (US$3.4 billion, 48% of total).
• Environment & Debris Management: Second-highest losses (US$2.0 billion, 28% of total).
• Needs by Sector:
  • Housing: US$6.3 billion (57% of total)
  • Commerce, Industry & Tourism: US$1.8 billion (17% of total)
  • Infrastructure Sectors: US$1.0 billion (9% of total)

Geographic Impact

• Nabatiyeh Governorate: Most impacted with US$3.2 billion in damage, US$2.0 billion in losses, and US$4.7 billion in needs (43% of total).
• South Governorate: Second most impacted with 23% of damage, 23% of losses, and 22% of needs.
• Mount Lebanon: 16% of total needs, including southern suburbs of Beirut.
• Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa: 7% and 6% of total needs, respectively.

Methodology and Data Sources

• Data Collection: A mix of ground-based and remote-based data, including satellite imagery, SAR analysis, social media analytics, and cellphone data.
• Validation: Data was validated through key informant interviews (KIIs), field assessments, and collaboration with various UN agencies and development partners.
• Limitations: Due to the rapid nature of the assessment, it is not a substitute for in-depth sector-specific analysis and does not cover all economic sectors.

Macroeconomic Impact

• GDP Contraction: Real GDP is expected to contract by 7.1% in 2024, compared to a no-conflict growth estimate of 0.9%.
• Total Impact: The conflict's impact on GDP is estimated at -8.0% in 2024.
• Cumulative Decline: Since 2019, Lebanon's GDP decline is nearly 40%, exacerbated by the conflict.

Displacement

• Displacement Patterns: The report includes an analysis of displacement, with the use of Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) and other data sources to track internal displacement (IDPs) and return movements.

Public and Private Sector Roles

• Private Sector Contribution: It is estimated that the private sector will need to contribute around US$6-8 billion to recovery efforts, particularly in the Housing and Commerce, Industry & Tourism sectors.
• Public Sector Role: At least US$3-5 billion in direct financing is required from the public sector, mainly for infrastructure, agriculture, environment, and human development sectors.

Conclusion

The RDNA serves as a preliminary tool to guide recovery and reconstruction efforts in Lebanon, based on 'build back better' principles. It highlights the need for integrated data collection and further sectoral analysis to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of future assessments. The findings are critical for informing policy dialogue and decision-making on the division of responsibilities for financing recovery and reconstruction.

Key Figures

• Total Damage: US$6.8 billion
• Total Losses: US$7.2 billion
• Total Needs: US$11 billion
• Immediate/Short-Term Needs: US$8.4 billion
• Medium-Term Needs: US$2.6 billion

Limitations and Recommendations

• The RDNA is preliminary and subject to the constraints of a rapid assessment.
• Future efforts should integrate more comprehensive ground-based data and include additional sectors for a more accurate national-level assessment.

Acknowledgments

• The World Bank team acknowledges the support of CNRS-L, UN agencies, and development partners such as AFD, FAO, IOM, UNDP, UNICEF, UNEP, and WFP.
• Financial and technical support was provided by the World Bank's State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF).